The Last Jedi The Last Jedi Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[Thread Manager]

This is a continuation thread, the old thread is [split]537875[/split]

 

[Thread Manager]

This is a continuation thread, the old thread is [split]523513[/split]

 

[TheVileOne]

Let's just say after this Kevin Fiege is #1 on Alan Horn's speed dial and not Kathleen Kennedy. Star Wars has been unseated as the defacto #1 brand in movies.

How do you figure?

 

[Iceman]

It may be possible going forward but I think we should wait till after Avengers 4 and Episode IX before making too many conclusions. The gap is certainly closing at least.

 

[TheVileOne]

This was the Star Wars movie released in theaters in 2008

 

[Erzengel]

I know as of right now the MCU has made $13.5B.

I don't know how much Disney made if you subtract Spider-Man:Homecoming, Universal and Hulk or that Paramount was still involved from IM through IM3 in terms of distributing.

From Dark World through Raganrok, that totals $7.60B through 9 films.

Star Wars has grossed Disney $4.43B through 3 films.

 

[TheVileOne]

I know as of right now the MCU has made $13.5B.

I don't know how much Disney made if you subtract Spider-Man:Homecoming, Universal and Hulk or that Paramount was still involved from IM through IM3 in terms of distributing.

From Dark World through Raganrok, that totals $7.60B through 9 films.

Star Wars has grossed Disney $4.43B through 3 films.

OK, but does that mean Feige is No. 1 on Alan Horn's speed dial now over Kathleen Kennedy?

 

[Erzengel]

Playing along with that comment, Fiege only handles the movie stuff. Someone else handles tv, comics, merchandise etc.

Kennedy handles everything Star Wars correct, including cartoons, books, etc? So, I would assume that Kennedy is still #1.

 

[TheVileOne]

One imagines that Kennedy delegates a lot of that work to her other department heads. Maybe she steps in to oversee things or give her input.

 

[Silver Surfer]

How do you figure?

One franchise is going to be pumping out at least 3 movies a year totaling anywhere from 2.5 to 3 billion a year, the other has not only peaked but now has had massive diminishing returns. Just look at next year, which franchise would you value more from a business perspective? the one that has IW, BP, and Ant-Man 2, or the one that has only Solo coming out.

Marvel as a whole is a much more lucrative property now than Star Wars, at least 3 movies a year, 4-7 tv shows, 2-5 cartoons, upcoming AAA video games, bankable toys.

 

[TheVileOne]

One franchise is going to be pumping out at least 3 movies a year totaling anywhere from 2.5 to 3 billion a year, the other has not only peaked but now has had massive diminishing returns. Just look at next year, which franchise would you value more from a business perspective? the one that has IW, BP, and Ant-Man 2, or the one that has only Solo coming out.

I think some of this is just sort of an anti-Star Wars fervor speaking. Especially considering the last three movies have all reached over $1 billion worldwide. Last two movies reached domestic numbers Marvel hasn't touched since Avengers came out. I don't see a brand like Star Wars becoming a lesser priority.

Marvel as a whole is a much more lucrative property now than Star Wars, at least 3 movies a year, 4-7 tv shows, 2-5 cartoons, upcoming AAA video games, bankable toys.

I mean Star Wars has some of those things as well. Granted, Marvel Comics I would say has a wider library of things you can do with it. Marvel Comics is a whole collection of individual franchises and character series. Star Wars is still a more singular franchise in many ways if that makes any sense.

 

[Silver Surfer]

I think some of this is just sort of an anti-Star Wars fervor speaking. Especially considering the last three movies have all reached over $1 billion worldwide. Last two movies reached domestic numbers Marvel hasn't touched since Avengers came out. I don't see a brand like Star Wars becoming a lesser priority.

Marvel studios is gonna be pumping 2.5-3 billion a year to Disney's finances, Star Wars is not gonna be able to do that. That's why Lucasflim is gonna be #2 on the Disney pecking order to Marvel Studios going forward.

I mean Star Wars has some of those things as well. Granted, Marvel Comics I would say has a wider library of things you can do with it. Marvel Comics is a whole collection of individual franchises and character series. Star Wars is still a more singular franchise in many ways if that makes any sense.

Exactly, Star Wars' potential is much more limited compared to Marvel.

 

[TheVileOne]

Marvel studios is gonna be pumping 2.5-3 billion a year to Disney's finances, Star Wars is not gonna be able to do that. That's why Lucasflim is gonna be #2 on the Disney pecking order to Marvel Studios going forward.

Between all the things Star Wars has going on besides the films, I highly doubt Star Wars incapable of bringing in similar amounts of money. Plus, they plan on making TV shows as well.

Exactly, Star Wars' potential is much more limited compared to Marvel.

Well Marvel Comics has arguably more established iconic characters and history to draw from. It's characters and stories date back to the 1940s. Star Wars started in 1977. But you could also argue that Star Wars has had a much deeper global impact across the world.

 

[Silver Surfer]

Between all the things Star Wars has going on besides the films, I highly doubt Star Wars incapable of bringing in similar amounts of money. Plus, they plan on making TV shows as well.

Star Wars' money making ability is still top notch, despite the current downward trend. But it can't touch Marvel Studios in terms of money going forward, just can't. No two ways about it.

 

[Warlock]

Update for Wednesday's (Day 48) total:
$306,959
Total Domestic:
$611,810,209

Total Worldwide is:
$1,312,902,051

The Day 48 for Rogue One was $342,079 so TLJ is doing less that 90% of the daily than RO at the same stage now. Rogue One had about 10 million left in the domestic tank from this point on.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Day 28 to Day 34
TLJ = RO -1.18% (Thursday) -18.09% (Friday) -13.33% (Saturday) -5.76% (Sunday) -16.93% (Monday) -16.09% (Tuesday) -14.50% (Wednesday)
Day 35 to Day 41
TLJ = RO -9.87% (Thursday) -7.38% (Friday) -10.97% (Saturday) -7.13% (Sunday) -11.92% (Monday) -11.37% (Tuesday) -9.39% (Wednesday)
Day 42 to Day 48
TLJ = RO -11.38% (Thursday) -23.93% (Friday) -20.76% (Saturday) -13.51% (Sunday) -12.50% (Monday) -14.30% (Tuesday) -10.27% (Wednesday)

 

[Warlock]

Day 28 to Day 34
TLJ = RO -1.18% (Thursday) -18.09% (Friday) -13.33% (Saturday) -5.76% (Sunday) -16.93% (Monday) -16.09% (Tuesday) -14.50% (Wednesday)
Day 35 to Day 41
TLJ = RO -9.87% (Thursday) -7.38% (Friday) -10.97% (Saturday) -7.13% (Sunday) -11.92% (Monday) -11.37% (Tuesday) -9.39% (Wednesday)
Day 42 to Day 48
TLJ = RO -11.38% (Thursday) -23.93% (Friday) -20.76% (Saturday) -13.51% (Sunday) -12.50% (Monday) -14.30% (Tuesday) -10.27% (Wednesday)

So are you saying it has been tracking worse than Rogue One since week 4???

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

So are you saying it has been tracking worse than Rogue One since week 4???

Been losing ground declining vs. RO so far since it debuted.

Opening Weekend: TLJ = RO +41.87%
Day 4 to Day 10: TLJ = RO +13.14%
Day 11 to Day 17: TLJ = RO +7.27%
Day 18 to Day 24: TLJ = RO +5.91%
Day 25 to Day 31: TLJ = RO -8.29%
Day 32 to Day 38: TLJ = RO -12.10%
Day 39 to Day 45: TLJ = RO -16.64%

But yes it took a few weeks before it dipped below RO's daily numbers.

 

[Romannen]

Let's just say after this Kevin Feige is #1 on Alan Horn's speed dial and not Kathleen Kennedy. Star Wars has been unseated as the defacto #1 brand in movies.

Keep in mind that things were a lot worse at one point. AOTC was beaten by Spider-Man in 2002 and ROTS was beaten by Harry Potter worldwide in 2005. TLJ is the highest grossing movie of the year on both fronts.

 

[Agent Orange]

Keep in mind that things were a lot worse at one point. AOTC was beaten by Spider-Man in 2002 and ROTS was beaten by Harry Potter worldwide in 2005. TLJ is the highest grossing movie of the year on both fronts.

The fact that Revenge of the Sith - the birth of Darth Vader - showed so poorly was a massive indictment on what George did to his own franchise. I think that TLJ's fan reaction and box office "failure" stinks of hyperbole but we'll see when IX's first trailer drops. I don't consider Solo a good barometer either. I was never interested in that and neither were most of my Star Wars mad friends.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

I picked some declining sequel examples (and threw in Rogue One as a non-direct follow-up example). The Last Jedi has the biggest drop off here from opening to end with -22.45% if the end gross ends up at around ~$621 million.

 

[Mandon Knight]

I picked some declining sequel examples (and threw in Rogue One as a non-direct follow-up example). The Last Jedi has the biggest drop off here from opening to end with -22.45% if the end gross ends up at around ~$621 million.

Something good came out of the Justice League then at least.....

 

[Iceman]

I think some of this is just sort of an anti-Star Wars fervor speaking. Especially considering the last three movies have all reached over $1 billion worldwide. Last two movies reached domestic numbers Marvel hasn't touched since Avengers came out. I don't see a brand like Star Wars becoming a lesser priority.



I mean Star Wars has some of those things as well. Granted, Marvel Comics I would say has a wider library of things you can do with it. Marvel Comics is a whole collection of individual franchises and character series. Star Wars is still a more singular franchise in many ways if that makes any sense.

It's a question of whether SW will ever be able to support 3 films a year and even 4 which I think Marvel will move to one day with all the new content they've finally got their hands on. If MCU event films happen as regularly as Episode films and do similar numbers and the next tier of top solos can compete with future SW spinoffs, there is still all the middle of the road and smaller MCU solos that are contributing.

This year for eg is an Episode film year so you have TLJ vs HC, Ragnarok and G2. Next year will be just Solo vs BP, IW and AM&W. Long term it's going to be hard for SW to compete IMO as long as they stay at max 1 film a year, even if it does bigger numbers in its biggest films (which isn't the foregone conclusion it once was any more with TLJ doing less than AoU.

 

[Spider-Fan]

It's a question of whether SW will ever be able to support 3 films a year and even 4 which I think Marvel will move to one day with all the new content they've finally got their hands on. If MCU event films happen as regularly as Episode films and do similar numbers and the next tier of top solos can compete with future SW spinoffs, there is still all the middle of the road and smaller MCU solos that are contributing.

This year for eg is an Episode film year so you have TLJ vs HC, Ragnarok and G2. Next year will be just Solo vs BP, IW and AM&W. Long term it's going to be hard for SW to compete IMO as long as they stay at max 1 film a year, even if it does bigger numbers in its biggest films (which isn't the foregone conclusion it once was any more with TLJ doing less than AoU.

Marvel I see moving to 4 films a year maybe even as soon as 2021, so long as the Disney-Fox assets sale finalizes in a timely manner. While maybe Star Wars is right now averaging more money per single film, thus earning higher profit per film, Marvel just is killing it with content and more avenues for revenue, and their films BO potential only keeps rising, while we're seeing Star Wars seeing a slight diminish in returns.

I think right now, Marvel is the dominate force in entertainment. My, how times have changed.

 

[Iceman]

Marvel I see moving to 4 films a year maybe even as soon as 2021, so long as the Disney-Fox assets sale finalizes in a timely manner. While maybe Star Wars is right now averaging more money per single film, thus earning higher profit per film, Marvel just is killing it with content and more avenues for revenue, and their films BO potential only keeps rising, while we're seeing Star Wars seeing a slight diminish in returns.

I think right now, Marvel is the dominate force in entertainment. My, how times have changed.

There seems to be so much more room for growth with Marvel too with all these new big properties left to introduce (assuming the rights deal goes through) that haven't even been touched on yet. SW has felt more insular than I was hoping for with the new films. If they'd expanded by having many more races involved as important characters rather than mostly humans I think it would have started feeling a lot larger and like TCW, had many more different places to shoot off to rather than just doing prequels of existing characters and more Episode films. I hope they go that way after this batch of films at least.