The Last Jedi The Last Jedi Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[Spider-Fan]

Yeah, it’s been going on for ages. I bought the last few Marvel blu-rays at Target. I got Rogue One at the Disney Store last year, and I pre-ordered TLJ there just to get the lithograph set. Amazon usually puts the discs up after the release date, but I won’t bother then because they annoyed me by not putting up the preorder.

Same. I think last movie Amazon allowed for pre-order from MCU was Thor: The Dark World. Last one I can remember at least. I have bought TWS and up all from Target or Wal Mart. I will be getting TLJ at Target as well.

So is this a disappointment relative to expectations? Out of everyone who I regularly talk movies with, only two of them have said they liked the movie. Seems this might have left money on the table by souring some fans and bringing the WOM down.

The movie is not universally loved, that is for sure. I loved the movie myself, but I won't bury my head in the sand and say everyone loved it, LOL! But at the same time, I don't think it was hated. I think this is an example of a truly divisive movie. But that said, I don't think it was ever going to match TFA, but certainly the baseline being 1.3 billion I wouldn't have expected. I would have thought closer to 1.5. But, 1.3 billion is still good for a movie, lol.

 

[Iceman]

So is this a disappointment relative to expectations? Out of everyone who I regularly talk movies with, only two of them have said they liked the movie. Seems this might have left money on the table by souring some fans and bringing the WOM down.

It's hard to tell where TLJ should have landed if it was all round well received given how much of a freak TFA was. I think the consequences of having a divisive Star Wars Episode film will be felt more in later films, unless they are top quality of course. My sister liked the film but not one my friends loved it. They all vary between thinking it's **** to ok/not bad but a bit disappointing, and that's from non-film buffs to huge SW fans. Anecdotal of course but a lot of people seem to come up with similar anecdotal stories which isn't the case with TFA. They took some risks and some of them worked while others didn't. In a spinoff I think that's less important but Episode films are always going to be crucial. I liked the film overall apart from the very end, and many small things bothered me as well as many characters not really progressing at all. But that aside, my hype for Episode IX has gone for the moment. Hopefully that comes back with the first trailer and pics like it did for Solo.

 

[Flemm]

I had a mixed reaction to the movie. Some very impressive sequences, particularly in the latter third of the film. But I was disappointed in how the new characters were handled. I just didn't feel that they were developed enough.

Having said that, I liked it more than my friends did. Nobody was really enthusiastic, which I would generally take as a bad sign for word of mouth.

But the real test is episode nine's opening weekend. If Solo is really good, that could also help. I will say that this movie did dampen my enthusiasm for future installments a little, though nothing drastic.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Deadline movie (theatrical and home) net profit estimates
TFA: $780.11M
RO: $318.80M
TLJ: $417.50M (TFA -46.48%, RO +30.96%)

Disney strongarmed the theaters into giving up 65% per ticket for TLJ to Disney.

 

[Mjölnir]

Deadline movie (theatrical and home) net profit estimates
TFA: $780.11M
RO: $318.80M
TLJ: $417.50M (TFA -46.48%, RO +30.96%)

Disney strongarmed the theaters into giving up 65% per ticket for TLJ to Disney.

For that aspect it's good that TLJ was knocked down a peg. Not because I'm against the film in itself but because it might make it harder for Disney to strong arm the theater chains in the future.

I'm not fond of that sort of behavior and Lucasfilm has been doing that for a long time now.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Week 16 for Star Wars: The Last Jedi ended yesterday on Day 112.

Star Wars: The Force Awakens
April 1 (Week 16) - digital download
April 5 (Week 16) - disks

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
March 24 (Week 15) - digital download
April 4 (Week 16) - disks

Star Wars: The Last Jedi
March 13 (Week 13) - digital download
March 27 (Week 15) - disks

Movie (Release Month) / Multiplier = Gross divided by Opening Weekend
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (December 2015) 3.78
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (December 2016) 3.43
Star Wars: The Last Jedi (December 2017) 2.82 currently
Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle (December 2017) 11.15 currently
Black Panther (February 2018) 3.25 currently

This is my last big data update until at least the movie leaves theaters.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Disney stopped reported domestic earnings for Star Wars: The Last Jedi and BoM claims it's closed its box domestic office run (it made like $9T dollars in Week 18, might as well not prolong the pain) on April 19. Here's a presumably final or close to it (no idea if and when it's out of foreign theaters) comparison chart.

 

[Ozbridge]

Just a suggestion: maybe next time you create charts like this the daily/ weekly gross can be converted to ln/ log so it's easier to see later in the run.

 

[Silver Surfer]

So not one but two Marvel movies spanked TLJ, guess there goes the debate for which is now the bigger franchise.

 

[Aximili86]

Not even remotely. One of those was a huge event movie converging 10 years of public-adored stuff into one film. And TFA's still pretty likely to remain above it overall once all the dust settles.

Nice ignoring the stuff about Solo projected to beat Panther's opening day, as well. Might not pan out that way, but that's what they're saying about the early ticket sales.

And Solo, among Star Wars movies, is pretty smalltime. People are still all over this stuff, no matter how much you personally may have hated Rian's movie last year.

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

So not one but two Marvel movies spanked TLJ, guess there goes the debate for which is now the bigger franchise.

Well, both of them were done much better than TLJ so I am glad this is the case. IW even felt more like a Star Wars movie than TLJ did at times.

 

[Silver Surfer]

Not even remotely. One of those was a huge event movie converging 10 years of public-adored stuff into one film. And TFA's still pretty likely to remain above it overall once all the dust settles.

TFA was a movie almost 35 years in the making with the OT characters finally returning, and IW will beat it WW, heck might beat Titanic for the #2 spot.

Nice ignoring the stuff about Solo projected to beat Panther's opening day, as well. Might not pan out that way, but that's what they're saying about the early ticket sales.

Solo will finish about half a billion behind BP's global take, and let's not even begin to compare it to IW.

And Solo, among Star Wars movies, is pretty smalltime. People are still all over this stuff, no matter how much you personally may have hated Rian's movie last year.

It is smalltime compared to the Saga films, but as we now know even the Saga films can't compete with the top MCU movies either; both BP and IW beat Ep8. Numbers don't lie, Marvel is just the bigger franchise now.

 

[Aximili86]

Gonna be hilarious when IX hits, does more money than TFA. Just a hunch.

 

[Silver Surfer]

^ Doesn't hurt to dream I guess.

 

[Vincanws]

So not one but two Marvel movies spanked TLJ, guess there goes the debate for which is now the bigger franchise.

Star Wars is potentially going into it's fourth billion dollar movie in a row. Once the MCU can put out 4 movies in a row that hit and exceed a billion we can call it the bigger franchise.

 

[Silver Surfer]

Star Wars is potentially going into it's fourth billion dollar movie in a row. Once the MCU can put out 4 movies in a row that hit and exceed a billion we can call it the bigger franchise.

Marvel is potentially about to hit $4 billion in one calendar year, a single billion dollar movie a year would be a massive downgrade for them.

 

[Iceman]

Not even remotely. One of those was a huge event movie converging 10 years of public-adored stuff into one film. And TFA's still pretty likely to remain above it overall once all the dust settles.

Nice ignoring the stuff about Solo projected to beat Panther's opening day, as well. Might not pan out that way, but that's what they're saying about the early ticket sales.

And Solo, among Star Wars movies, is pretty smalltime. People are still all over this stuff, no matter how much you personally may have hated Rian's movie last year.

In the U.S. Star Wars is still huge business and hasn't had a blip. It's overseas where it is not looking that big now compared to the MCU, especially going forward. Many overseas markets don't have the same decades of nostalgia that puts Star Wars above everything else for many people who were around at the time of the original trilogy.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

U.K. first week disc sales data from U.K. Official Charts website
The Force Awakens (2015) - 1,250,000 (first 7 days in 2016)
Rogue One (2016) - 661,000 units (first 7 days in 2017)
The Last Jedi (2017) - 582,000 units (first 7 days in 2018) (TFA -53.44%; RO -11.95%)

U.K. disc sales in an individual calendar year
The Force Awakens (2015) - 1,954,000 units (sold throughout 2016)
Rogue One (2016) - 1,190,000 units (sold throughout 2017)

The-numbers.com still hasn't updated since March unfortunately.

https://www.the-numbers.com/weekly-bluray-sales-chart

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

U.S. disc unit sales estimated according to The-numbers.com.

The Force Awakens: 4,089,858 units during week 1 of physical home video release (3,420,540 Blu-ray units + 669,318 DVD units)
Rogue One: 2,203,761 units during week 1 of physical home video release (1,862,376 Blu-ray units + 341,385 DVD units)
The Last Jedi: 2,377,883 units during week 1 of physical home video release (1,940,241 Blu-ray units + 437,642 DVD units)

* Confusingly The-numbers.com allegedly according to this image start their week count when the digital release begins not the physical.

EDIT: Added new DVD estimates.