The Dark Knight Rises The TDKR Box Office Thread IV

[Tony Stark]

The bottom fell out of every film. everthing was down. olympics maybe?

And seriously are we going to brand this movie a "disappointment" if it "only" grosses say 425 million? Thats ludicrous.

It's only a disappointment in that it will have lost audience from it's previous film, but that seems to be common in the 3rd installments of CBM's.

 

[TLH]

Ultimately it doesn't matter because TDKR is a great film and the entire trilogy is fantastic, and that's what truly endures. The quality of the movies.

 

[kvz5]

I never thought for once that it could beat the numbers of TA but I definitely thought it could do more than TDK. The shootout obviously affected the feelings of some people so much that they didn't rush to see it at the opening weekend but it's goes beyond that. The tragedy killed a huge chunk of the hype and excitement for the movie. Promos were halted because of it. It's really a shame what happened...

The way they handled the press and promos for the movie were a bit weird too since they wanted to keep as much of the movie as a secret as possible so there's that factor as well.

 

[FlawlessVictory]

IMAX Says Overseas Audiences Propelling Strong ‘Dark Knight’ Sales

By DAVID LIEBERMAN, Executive Editor | Thursday July 26, 2012 @ 10:33am EDT

The company’s “thoughts and prayers” are with the victims of the Aurora shooting, CEO Richard Gelfond told analysts this morning. But while the tragedy could make domestic IMAX attendance for The Dark Knight Rises “a little flatter than we thought,” it shouldn’t prevent the film from being a solid success — especially abroad. The company reports that its theaters showing the Warner Bros film are at capacity “virtually everywhere.” The Batman film is generating $57,000 per screen domestically — and $75,000 overseas. That has amounted to as much as $4M a day during the week. The film includes more than 70 minutes of footage shot with IMAX cameras. “We believe that the success of this film will drive longer term benefits to our business like continued theater signings momentum and interest in IMAX differentiation among filmmakers,” Gelfond says. IMAX has the right to show Dark Knight for eight weeks, but has some flexibility to keep it longer — or swap it out if the sales don’t hold up. The company said today that it plans to show Sony’s Total Recall: The Imax Experience and Universal’s The Bourne Legacy: The IMAX Experience in some international markets beginning in August. IMAX shares are down about 3.8% in early trading following the release of its Q2 earnings.

http://www.deadline.com/2012/07/imax-says-overseas-audiences-propelling-dark-knight-sales/

 

[Tony Stark]

The overseas market is definitely the silver lining for this film, but it still has to open up in a number of markets, so you don't want to be too premature for assuming 600-700 OS

 

[redp]

The overseas market is definitely the silver lining for this film, but it still has to open up in a number of markets, so you don't want to be too premature for assuming 600-700 OS

Yeah, I agree but its record opening in France bodes good news in much of Europe and overseas in general. Domestically, everything has changed and to be honest it is unclear how successful it will be.

Here is my predictions for its second weekend: http://box-office-film-news.blogspot.com/2012/07/the-dark-knight-rises-second-weekend.html

 

[redfirebird2008]

Biggest box office achievement for this film is that it will be the first time Batman is really big at the domestic box office and even bigger overseas. In the past, a really successful domestic performance would be offset by a less than great overseas performance. After 73 years of America embracing this iconic character, I am happy to see overseas audiences doing the same thing.

Regarding the negativity surrounding the film's domestic performance, this should help keep things in perspective. Biggest non-Joker Batman film adjusts to $335m.

http://boxofficemojo.com/franchises/chart/?id=batman.htm&adjust_yr=2012&p=.htm

I've been saying for 4 years that people shouldn't underestimate the impact of the Joker being involved in these films, especially in TDK's case since Ledger played the character very well and then died right before the movie came out. To make things more difficult, the film is 165 minutes and Batman is barely in it. Then to make it even worse, you have a mass shooting at a midnight showing of the film. Take everything into consideration and tell me that you're still hugely disappointed in the film selling 20-25% more tickets in the domestic market (and 70-75% more tickets worldwide) than the likes of Batman Forever and Batman Returns.

 

[batbax]

Well said.

 

[Travesty]

Biggest box office achievement for this film is that it will be the first time Batman is really big at the domestic box office and even bigger overseas. In the past, a really successful domestic performance would be offset by a less than great overseas performance. After 73 years of America embracing this iconic character, I am happy to see overseas audiences doing the same thing.

Regarding the negativity surrounding the film's domestic performance, this should help keep things in perspective. Biggest non-Joker Batman film adjusts to $335m.

http://boxofficemojo.com/franchises/chart/?id=batman.htm&adjust_yr=2012&p=.htm

I've been saying for 4 years that people shouldn't underestimate the impact of the Joker being involved in these films, especially in TDK's case since Ledger played the character very well and then died right before the movie came out. To make things more difficult, the film is 165 minutes and Batman is barely in it. Then to make it even worse, you have a mass shooting at a midnight showing of the film. Take everything into consideration and tell me that you're still hugely disappointed in the film selling 20-25% more tickets in the domestic market (and 70-75% more tickets worldwide) than the likes of Batman Forever and Batman Returns.

Sure, but another thing you should look at, is how many more theaters TDKR has compared to those other movies you listed. It's almost double, and also you should take into account the IMAX prices.

Poor MOTP.

 

[redfirebird2008]

Sure, but another thing you should look at, is how many more theaters TDKR has compared to those other movies you listed. It's almost double, and also you should take into account the IMAX prices.

Poor MOTP.

IMAX is one thing, but theater count is irrelevant over time. There are plenty of other films in history that adjust to way more than the $400-425m that TDKR will end up with. It's still kicking those other two films' butts in admissions, even when you adjust for IMAX. And neither one of them had a national tragedy happen during their opening night screenings. I would argue the shooting wipes out the IMAX boost compared to the other two films.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

IMAX is one thing, but theater count is irrelevant over time. There are plenty of other films in history that adjust to way more than the $400-425m that TDKR will end up with. It's still kicking those other two films' butts in admissions, even when you adjust for IMAX. And neither one of them had a national tragedy happen during their opening night screenings. I would argue the shooting wipes out the IMAX boost compared to the other two films.

Bingo.

 

[Travesty]

IMAX is one thing, but theater count is irrelevant over time. There are plenty of other films in history that adjust to way more than the $400-425m that TDKR will end up with. It's still kicking those other two films' butts in admissions, even when you adjust for IMAX. And neither one of them had a national tragedy happen during their opening night screenings. I would argue the shooting wipes out the IMAX boost compared to the other two films.

Seeing as we don't know how it will do overall, we can only speak about what we know of. And the movie just came out, and again, is in MUCH more theaters than those other movies you just listed. So yes, from what we know of right now, the theater count is very relevant.

 

[redfirebird2008]

Seeing as we don't know how it will do overall, we can only speak about what we know of. And the movie just came out, and again, is in MUCH more theaters than those other movies you just listed. So yes, from what we know of right now, the theater count is very relevant.

Not for the total gross it isn't. Again, I can list two films from 1994 (Lion King and Forrest Gump) that slaughter not only TDKR's admissions, but TDK's admissions as well. And I can list a certain Bat film from 1989 that slaughtered the admissions of Batman Returns and Batman Forever despite being in significantly fewer theaters. That same 1989 Bat film will end up slaughtering TDKR's admissions too. So as I said, over the long haul it does not matter. Worldwide your point makes a lot more sense. In the domestic market? Not at all. If anything, people go to the movies LESS now than they did back in 1992 and 1995.

 

[Travesty]

Not for the total gross it isn't. Again, I can list two films from 1994 (Lion King and Forrest Gump) that slaughter not only TDKR's admissions, but TDK's admissions as well. And I can list a certain Bat film from 1989 that slaughtered the admissions of Batman Returns and Batman Forever despite being in significantly fewer theaters. That same 1989 Bat film will end up slaughtering TDKR's admissions too. So as I said, over the long haul it does not matter. Worldwide your point makes a lot more sense. In the domestic market? Not at all. If anything, people go to the movies LESS now than they did back in 1992 and 1995.

You're exaggerating that statement quite a bit. I'm talking about how TDKR is in 2,000+ more theaters than the movies you just listed, and then somehow you say that those movies being in a few hundred more theaters than B89 is somehow much more significant?

 

[redfirebird2008]

You're exaggerating that statement quite a bit. I'm talking about how TDKR is in 2,000+ more theaters than the movies you just listed, and then somehow you say that those movies being in a few hundred more theaters than B89 is somehow much more significant?

I didn't say it was "somehow more significant." My point is B89 sold a ton more tickets than TDKR despite having a BIGGER disadvantage than Batman Returns and Batman Forever. If the 1989 film could kick TDKR's butt in admissions, then there really isn't an excuse for the later two films other than the fact that the 1989 film was more well-liked by the public and it featured the most popular comic book villain of them all.

Films received longer release schedules back in the day than they do now, which largely canceled out the theater count advantage of today's films. The percentage of population who actually went to the theater back in the day was larger than it is now, and arguably the sheer number of people who went to the theater back in the day was also larger if you take a look at the all-time adjusted list. Very few modern films are anywhere near the top of the list.

 

[Travesty]

I didn't say it was "somehow more significant." My point is B89 sold a ton more tickets than TDKR despite having a BIGGER disadvantage than Batman Returns and Batman Forever. If the 1989 film could kick TDKR's butt in admissions, then there really isn't an excuse for the later two films other than the fact that the 1989 film was more well-liked by the public and it featured the most popular comic book villain of them all.

Films received longer release schedules back in the day than they do now, which largely canceled out the theater count advantage of today's films. The percentage of population who actually went to the theater back in the day was larger than it is now, and arguably the sheer number of people who went to the theater back in the day was also larger if you take a look at the all-time adjusted list. Very few modern films are anywhere near the top of the list.

We'll just have to see how long TDKR stays in theaters. B89 was in theaters from June-Dec, while TDK was in theaters from Jul-March. TDK stayed in theaters 2 more months than B89.

 

[redfirebird2008]

We'll just have to see how long TDKR stays in theaters. B89 was in theaters from June-Dec, while TDK was in theaters from Jul-March. TDK stayed in theaters 2 more months than B89.

TDK was an anomaly.

 

[Liam_H]

The last 4 or 5 months of TDK's run was a very small percentage of its overall total.

 

[Jordanstine]

@ERCboxoffice Bat-update: TDKR officially grossed $13,770,092 on Wednesday. Total is now $211,808,988.

It's a little too early for projections, but here's mine:

Monday = $19.5M
Tuesday = $17.7M
Wednesday = $15.6M
Thursday = $14.2M
Friday = $21.0M
Saturday = $25.3M
Sunday = $20.7M

2nd Weekend = $67.0M

2nd Week Cume = $134.0M

Total Domestic Prediction after July 30th = $294.9M

Actuals:

Monday = $19.389 million
Tuesday = $17.762 million
Wednesday = $13.770 million

Yikes!

Wednesday was much lower than I projected... lower by almost $2 million!

I'm going to have to revise this now:

Thursday = $12.7M
Friday = $19.5M
Saturday = $23.6M
Sunday = $19.0M

2nd Weekend = $62.1M

2nd Week Cume = $125.7M

Total Domestic Prediction after July 30th = $286.6M

 

[JP]

According to Deadline, 20-25% of moviegoers are still hesitant to go out to the theater this weekend because of the shooting. Hope this holds well.

 

[Figs]

According to Deadline, 20-25% of moviegoers are still hesitant to go out to the theater this weekend because of the shooting. Hope this holds well.

Where do they get these numbers.

 

[JP]

Beats me:
http://www.deadline.com/hollywood/

 

[Travesty]

Where do they get these numbers.

I think they just call up random people and go "hey you, were you planing on going to TDKR, but are now too hesitant because of the shooting: yes or no. Ahhhh, ok, next person in the phone book....".

 

[Figs]

I think they just call up random people and go "hey you, were you planing on going to TDKR, but are now too hesitant because of the shooting: yes or no. Ahhhh, ok, next person in the phone book....".

That's what I'm saying hahaha.

So many people online swear by that website's numbers but all they pretty much do is guess. The only way they could have came up with those numbers is if they did a nationwide poll.

 

[JP]

Not sure what you mean by "swear by their numbers" as if Deadline just pulls out random numbers from a hat. It's not their numbers.

But NRG research is currently showing that 20%-25% of the domestic moviegoing audience is still very hesitant to go this weekend because of the Colorado theater shooting.

In this case they got the numbers from NRG.

In the case of their Box Office projections, they get their numbers from the studios themselves, as well has rival studios and theater chains.