Age of Extinction Transformers 4 Box Office Prediction Thread (domestic)

[JKKS085]

So now they just keep shaving off a bit for the rest of the week right?

Also, I don't get how all this works but didn't rentrak also say the numbers were 100m for the week yesterday? Or did they get that from the studio? How does that go down exactly?

In the end Rentrak does the same thing BoM and other Box-Office reporting websites do, they stick with studios official numbers (mostly because they are first and foremost their clients).

However they also share their own numbers prior to studios releases (and most notably a very accurate PSA) based on data they get directly from the theaters they track (which is pretty much every theater aside from the 100 smallest ones). Based on Rentrak's PSA over the week end, the film's numbers should come a bit under 97M to which you would add 500K from the theaters they didn't track. That's where all the controversy comes from. For Paramounts 100M+ number to be true those theaters needed to perform 3 or 4 times better than the national average which is simply impossible.

And as for your assumption, it's exactly what's happening, they will shave off 500K every day until friday to make up for the 2.5M inflated owe. Making the film even more frontloaded than it should be. Now it's a bit hard to make predictions at this point based on these tempered numbers, but with that Monday hold I think it should finish at about 250M domestically tops (and probably lower than that). The fact that it is going to be the lowest grossing installment in the franchise is a given at this point.

 

[WC Avengers]

Make me quit my hostile tone and leave these forums. Last time I checked I have the right to discuss the box office of this film if I damn well please.

I have to agree with Spidey. We have the right to discuss our thoughts. Spidey just stated what he thought. I dont see a problem.

anyhow,


325 domestic and 785 Os


is my prediction

 

[The Endless]

This movie deserves to make no more than 2 potatoes.

 

[WC Avengers]

This movie deserves to make no more than 2 potatoes.

The movie is awesome.... imho

 

[The Endless]

For me it is worth no more than 2 potatoes out of 10 potatoes.

 

[JKKS085]

I have to agree with Spidey. We have the right to discuss our thoughts. Spidey just stated what he thought. I dont see a problem.

anyhow,


325 domestic and 785 Os


is my prediction

You're domestic prediction is not gonna happen. It has 0 chance to make it to 300M domestically at this point. I'll wait for the week end to make any definitive statements but at this point I'm not even sure it'll beat cap for first place dom. And even if it does it's not gonna be by a huge margin.

 

[rayc1971]

I don't see 300mil domestic either

 

[DA_Champion]

Thus far this year, no domestic juggernauts.

 

[Lord]

Didn't hunger games made a lot Domesticaly the past 2 years? There's still hope

 

[rayc1971]

Didn't hunger games made a lot Domesticaly the past 2 years? There's still hope

yeah it did but we are talking about the summer blockbuters none wil hit 300mill domestic cant remember how many summers thts been inawhile

 

[rayc1971]

it has been since 2001 that we have not have a summer movie top 300mill domestic shrek did 267mill domestic

 

[JKKS085]

BoxOffice @BoxOffice · 43 min
TRANSFORMERS: AGE OF EXTINCTION took in an estimated $36.4M this weekend. Domestic total stands at $174.75M. #Transformers4 #AgeOfExtinction

That's a 63.6% drop from last week end (with the 4th of July boost and virtually no competition) and further indication (if it was needed) that last week end's numbers have been fudged.
This film is not beating CATWS domestically and even with a great performance from China (with numbers exceeding the US BO) I have doubts now it's going to make the 760M OS or so it needs to get to 1B WW.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Yep, it has zero chance at 300mil as I suspected last week. As I said, fourth films with different casts do not have long legs at the box office.

 

[rayc1971]

Yep, it has zero chance at 300mil as I suspected last week. As I said, fourth films with different casts do not have long legs at the box office.

hard to believe this will be the first summer since 2001 without a 300mill domestic film.shrek led summer 2001 with 267mill domestic b the way

 

[JKKS085]

Yep, it has zero chance at 300mil as I suspected last week. As I said, fourth films with different casts do not have long legs at the box office.

At this point and if it keeps on dropping like that, it might not even make it to 250M.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

hard to believe this will be the first summer since 2001 without a 300mill domestic film.shrek led summer 2001 with 267mill domestic b the way

It's been a very lousy summer in the states box office wise. Summer 2015 and 2016 are guaranteed to have 300mil domestic grossers though. Apes looks great and will have reviews on it's side but I definitely do not see 300mil potential there. It will be doing well if it outgrosses the 176mil of it's predecessor.

At this point and if it keeps on dropping like that, it might not even make it to 250M.

At this point I don't see 250mil but of course I'm not completely ruling out such a number.

 

[rayc1971]

It's been a very lousy summer in the states box office wise. Summer 2015 and 2016 are guaranteed to have 300mil domestic grossers though. Apes looks great and will have reviews on it's side but I definitely do not see 300mil potential there. It will be doing well if it outgrosses the 176mil of it's predecessor.

At this point I don't see 250mil but of course I'm not completely ruling out such a number.

apes I have at 200 to 225mill domestic and gaudians of the galaxy around 150 to 180mill domestic

 

[samsnee]

The problem is two fold. First, these movies are incredibly front loaded. Anyone who wants to see it opening weekend probably can. Second, if word of mouth isn't good, you're looking at a least a 50% drop that second weekend. I think for T4, the Cinema score may have been good, but clearly not good enough that people want to sit through three hours again.

 

[Liam_H]

Congrats to the movie for being the biggest ever in China, with plenty more to come too.

 

[The Caped Knight]

‘Transformers: Age of Extinction’ Blasts Past $600 Million at Worldwide Box Office
http://www.thewrap.com/transformers...sts-past-600-million-at-worldwide-box-office/

 

[Marvin]

The film is expected/projected to make 1.25 billion WW?
If it actually does that, then each installment will have made more than the prior. That's a big if though.

The last installments in both hunger games and hobbit failed to hit a billion and the latter doesn't seem like the traditional domestic ringer. Both hunger games films however have made more domestic than any TF film.

 

[Fallen Angel]

This is going to pass the billion dollar mark with ease.

Michael Bay is God.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Or he sold his soul to Satan for fortune and fame.