Apocalypse X-Men: Apocalypse Box Office Prediction Thread

[BeholdMe]

I disagree I think it's very within reach.

 

[Sithborg]

It has a fairly difficult release date to hit a billion. And despite the fanboys tossing that number around, it still isn't easy to hit a billion.

 

[kevork89]

A billion most likely no. But low 800 millions, i'd say so.

 

[Avalanche]

A billion just seems like wishful thinking. The series has never had that kind of gravitas and I don't think that's changed.

Let's just hope for a good movie that can make around the same amount as DoFP.

 

[Bruce Malone]

Maybe I'm just not feeling but I don't feel like this film will be bigger than DOFP it may match it but I'm not sure what's there to significantly boost anything?

 

[magneto23]

Maybe I'm just not feeling but I don't feel like this film will be bigger than DOFP it may match it but I'm not sure what's there to significantly boost anything?

The scope/scale is gonna be unlike anything we have ever seen from this series. The world wide destruction and all. That should provide a boost.

 

[BeholdMe]

I'm not saying it will hit a billion I'm saying that it is very within reach for it to happen. I'll be happy either way and I do believe the film will do good.

 

[DACrowe]

I definitely think this film will open bigger than any X-Men movie before it. While First Class is regarded highly among we fans, it was the lowest grossing X-Men movie yet ever released and a lot of audiences stayed away at the time due to a lack of Jackman and the horrid taste of TLS and XOW.

While FC brought the nerd community back onboard, it was DOFP that got the GA to take notice again, and I do believe the mediocrity of X3 and XOW still hung unfairly over DOFP and (for that matter) The Wolverine. But I do think DOFP was the "Batman Begins" so to speak for the franchise. The social media chatter for Apocalypse is proof of that. Add on the hyper love people had for Deadpool, X-Men: Apocalypse should quite easily clear $100 million its opening weekend. I wouldn't be surprised if it clears $140 million over the 4-day Memorial Day weekend.

With that said, it doesn't have Jackman, which is a key point with some people (though less than it used to be), and it has stiff competition. So how much it makes after that will depend a lot on the WOM and quality of the picture. If it is as good as FC or DOFP, I could see it ironically having better legs than them. But if it is more average, as the fourth superhero movie in as many months this year, I could see it dropping like a rock. So while a big opening is a definite, the actual quality will play a big factor if it ends up closer to $600 million or $850 million, I suspect.

 

[Wildcard]

I don't think the movie hitting $1 billion is a surefire lock by any means but it's definitely a logical possibility given the early hype surrounding the movie. The X-Men franchise has reached new heights as of DOFP & Deadpool so I'm not sure I understand the mind-state that it isn't capable of securing its first $1 billion dollar movie with XMA.

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

It's definitely capable with the momentum the franchise has. Deadpool will also give it a boost but that film is pretty much a 180 from Singer's stuff, so I'm not sure how big of a boost once audiences experience the difference (good or bad). I'm comfortable predicting 800-850 million.

 

[DACrowe]

The franchise has not hit anything close to a billion yet. I can see growth given the good word of mouth for DOFP and Deadpool. But Singer's movies are often quite politically-minded and dialogue heavy (at least as far as this genre is concerned). And while that worked wonders for Batman, first I think Nolan's Batman movies were simply better, and second Batman has more iconography in American culture.

I just feel like there is a ceiling for this franchise and I think it is above what DOFP made... but I am not sure it is at a billion. I suppose, we will see.

 

[FeedOnATreeFrog]

If there's an X-Men movie in the future that brings together heroes from Apocalypse, Deadpool, Gambit, X-Force, and New Mutants, and it's directed by someone who goes big with the spectacle like Avengers, I could see that maybe making a billion. I do wonder if Fox has their own 'Infinity War' in mind.

 

[Zarex]

I don't think the movie hitting $1 billion is a surefire lock by any means but it's definitely a logical possibility given the early hype surrounding the movie. The X-Men franchise has reached new heights as of DOFP & Deadpool so I'm not sure I understand the mind-state that it isn't capable of securing its first $1 billion dollar movie with XMA.

Apocalypse should do well, but getting over $1 billion would require a 35% increase over the prior installment. That's going to be extremely difficult to pull off given the missing OT cast, limited or no Jackman and recast versions of fan favorite characters.

The release date is also a challenge. Apocalypse is bracketed by the sequels to two very popular films, Neighbors and TMNT. And it is on the same date as the follow up to an Alice film that did over a billion at the box office. Apocalypse is also the third big budget "heroes fighting heroes" epic in just a few months, and there's a chance audiences will be a bit burnt out by late May.

Apocalypse ending up within 5% higher or lower at the BO than DOFP would be a win for FOX and the franchise.

 

[Sithborg]

How is this a "heroes vs heroes" concept?

 

[Eddie]

How is this a "heroes vs heroes" concept?

Presumably they're referring to the Horsemen, especially Storm. The trope fits.

 

[Zarex]

Presumably they're referring to the Horsemen, especially Storm. The trope fits.

That's it. Storm, Angel and Psylocke may have all flirted with the dark side, but they are identified as heroes by X-Men fans. Ororo has been a cinematic hero since the turn of the century.

 

[EnDz0n3]

I'm really hoping these twitter mentions turn into boxoffice moolah for Apocalypse.

The rest of the top ten contains mostly usual suspects, the comic book sequel trio that is X-Men: Apocalypse, Captain America: Civil War, Batman vs. Superman: Dawn Of Justice ended up within 10% of each other for the week while newcomer franchise hopeful Suicide Squad rounded out the top 5 though it was less than half of fourth place Dawn Of Justice.

Date Movie Tweets
3/04/16 Zootopia 164,340
5/27/16 X-Men: Apocalypse 88,611
5/06/16 Captain America: Civil War 81,781
3/25/16 Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice 80,035

It really is impressive that it always tops the other supposedly bigger comic book movies but conventional wisdom and past BO says otherwise. At least we know X-men is still (more) relevant.

 

[Ryan1210]

Hey X:A has moved up to May 18.

 

[RLAAMJR.]

Hey X:A has moved up to May 18.

what???? But why? May 27 is my birthday.

 

[RLAAMJR.]

It has a fairly difficult release date to hit a billion. And despite the fanboys tossing that number around, it still isn't easy to hit a billion.

It's easy to hit a billion dollars for X-men Apocalypse and it's going to be the top grossing film of 2016.

 

[RLAAMJR.]

I can't with the delusion right now.

OMG! There are so many Storm fans here with Storm avatars.

 

[Ryan1210]

what???? But why? May 27 is my birthday.

I don't know. Maybe they're mistaking with the UK release.

http://www.screenrelish.com/2016/02/26/x-men-apocalypse-moved-up-to-may-18/

 

[RLAAMJR.]

Legacy is unquantifiable. It's a myth perpetuated by fanboys.

It has a fairly difficult release date to hit a billion. And despite the fanboys tossing that number around, it still isn't easy to hit a billion.

You're gonna be proven wrong. Wait for it.

 

[Eddie]

Apocalypse will not be the top grossing film of 2016. I'd be mildly surprised if it makes more than Rogue One makes in the calendar year (much less its full run).

 

[Wildcard]

I don't think anyone's expecting XMA to be the top grossing film of the year, just one of them....definitely within the top five list when it's all said and done.