Apocalypse X-Men: Apocalypse Box Office Prediction Thread

[psylockolussus]

So Mission Impossible at 95% right now on RT.

Wouldn't mind Christopher McQuarrie taking over once Singer calls it quits.

Its 91% right now.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

I just watched the first teaser trailer.

I predict a small drop domestic but a slight increase worldwide.

220 m DOM
750 m WW

 

[Zarex]

The success of DOFP and the "give the people what they want" nature of the trailer should lead to a BO increase. But the release date for Apocalypse is absolutely BRUTAL. Two weeks after Civil War, the same week as the Alice sequel and a week before Turtles 2. In that environment keeping within 5% of the last X-Men film's BO would be a victory

 

[Link]

These are my favorite cbm's, but i really don't see it making more than 800 million.

 

[Sithborg]

2 weeks after Civil War is hardly what I would call brutal.

 

[BoredGuy]

2 weeks after Civil War is hardly what I would call brutal.

it's the combination of things he mentioned, not just that
but if CW is as good as TWS, it could absolutely have enough legs to hurt X-Men's box office

 

[EnDz0n3]

It's three weeks not two.

 

[Zarex]

2 weeks after Civil War is hardly what I would call brutal.

CW should at least flirt with $1 billion and the box office, and if so will still be drawing fans in week three. There is considerable overlap amongst the fan bases for the two Marvel properties, and this will likely cut into the opening week numbers for Apocalypse.

 

[BoredGuy]

It's three weeks not two.

well that's helpful
it still doesn't have the greatest weekend though, memorial day is not the guaranteed money maker the way it used to be, and the competition around it has similar demographics they're after

 

[Zarex]

It's three weeks not two.

I stand corrected! It still seems like a tight squeeze, and there could be event superhero movie fatigue with Apocalypse lining up third behind BvS and CW.

 

[psylockolussus]

It's three weeks not two.

Four weeks in some countries where it will open 1 week earlier.

 

[EnDz0n3]

well that's helpful

Not sure if you're being sarcastic.

 

[BoredGuy]

not at all, sorry, lol

 

[Avalanche]

The competition is just too fierce for this one I think. It's a really overcrowded year for the demographic. X-Men movies typically don't have great legs, so it will have to open massive and I just don't see it happening. Big, yes, but not massive.

 

[EnDz0n3]

Now that Disney has seen what Fox has on that date and vice versa, I wonder if either movie will move.

 

[marvelrobbins]

i didn't bother to watch alice2 trailer so i have no idea what's there but i doudt fox moves.
This is last time they will be able to release a X-Men film In may since come 2017 every may will have a star wars film on memorial day and add to may always having a MCU film in begining of may.ID sequel comes in july and fox doesn't have another prime spot of summer to move to.

 

[Sithborg]

I am not entirely sold on TMNT being a major threat. It could be a Revenge of the Fallen, sure. Or, it could be a Dark of the Moon or Age of Extinction, domestically. And I am not sold on its international appeal for growth, either.

 

[EnDz0n3]

The problem is it's playing to the same demographic as X-men so it would still eat up some of the audience from that second weekend.

 

[psylockolussus]

I think its pretty safe to say that no one is moving.

 

[psylockolussus]

My predictions, after the 1st trailer release

North America - $180 million to $250 million
Worldwide - $680 million to $800 million

 

[starscream22]

I'll say $680M WW and that's being generous.

 

[marvelrobbins]

My predictions, after the 1st trailer release

North America - $180 million to $250 million
Worldwide - $680 million to $800 million

after trailer i will go

Domestic-220 million
Worldwide-775 million

GA eat up global destrucon.look at man of steel.since this will be defently good film i say 775 WW.it would be in 800 million if members of original cast was in it and promated.Worldwide destrucon and X_Men vs horseman and apocalypse should cause overseas audences to eat it up.why I am a little more otimistic on domestic then before still feel like it may do less domesticly than DOFP without Original cast in it.

There is possibilty we could have a last stand situation where love of DOFP causes more to go to theaters and it outgrosses DOFP since unlike last stand it's actual goodt:

 

[mabromov]

I'll say $680M WW and that's being generous.

DOFP made nearly 750 WW. I think if Apocalypse is good, it will reach at least 800 million WW.

 

[GuestStar2004]

At the moment yeah I think 800 mil

 

[starscream22]

DOFP made nearly 750 WW. I think if Apocalypse is good, it will reach at least 800 million WW.

DOFP didn't have XM: Apoc's competition surrounding it.

There's Neighbors2 (pt 1 knocked off ASM2), Wonderland 2 (same day release and the last one made $1B+), TMNT2 and it only gets tougher down the road so chances of re-watching it a second time vs watching Conjuring 2 and Finding Dori when they release are moderate at best.

$800M requires people to still be checking for this film when ID2 comes out(1 month later).

I'll be skipping a lot of these personally. Conjuring 2 is up in the air, I loved the first one but the Anabel spinoff was cash grab trash! But Star Trek and Suicide Squad are day 1 tickets.