Apocalypse X-Men: Apocalypse Box Office Prediction Thread

[def28]

Wolverine isn't the draw anymore. People don't realize that. The character hurt X3 more than it helped, hogging all the screen time and ruining the quality of the story, then Origins. DoFP capitalized on cool set pieces and the ensemble of original actors/characters plus the FC... not because Wolverine was in there. The Wolverine didn't do amazing either.

The only thing that is going to screw this up is if its a terrible film. The sex appeal is there with the new actors they've brought in on the Horseman side, plus the return of some classic characters. And people realize Apocalypse is the biggest villain. Frankly, I'd be stunned if this doesn't do at least 250 domestic, but I'm expecting 280-330 depending on the quality.

Those movies were poorly written. Blaming the quality on the character is not at all the case.

Wolverine is and always will be a draw. Even with poorly rated films the X-Men/Wolverine franchise has not flopped. The studio/writers just needed to make sure other characters are marketable as well. Yeah, they have spent the past 2 films building McAvoy, Fassbender and Lawrence. But do you think that suddenly stops Wolverine from being a marketable character that draws audiences? You have to erase decades of films, comics and cartoons for that to happen.

As for Apocalypse, X-Men films are on the upswing. Nothing to be worried about.

 

[iacobusleo]

Wolverine isn't the draw anymore. People don't realize that. The character hurt X3 more than it helped, hogging all the screen time and ruining the quality of the story, then Origins. DoFP capitalized on cool set pieces and the ensemble of original actors/characters plus the FC... not because Wolverine was in there. The Wolverine didn't do amazing either.

Wander over to the comments section on Youtube for the Apocalypse trailer and you'll see comment after comment asking for Wolverine.

I don't feel like the audience has the same attachment to the first class x-men as they did the original trilogy cast?

Depends on who you're asking.

As a 22 year old, many of my similar aged friends who are non comic-book fans are watching the movies specifically for the FC cast. Literally one of them, while acknowledging DOFP was good because of the nostalgia, said, "I'm not going to watch the movies with the original cast."

 

[MarvelU]

Of course, not many movies can out do what Deadpool is doing, so there is really no shame in Apocalypse not doing the same numbers.

Exactly.

It's tough to tell what will happen but I think X-Men having a superbowl spot and also DeadPool becoming a success will help the Movie. The marketing for this needs to do some unique stuff. FOX should be as creative as they were with DeadPool for marketing, minus the fourthwall breaking and crude humor.

 

[CaptainCanada]

So this also being a farewell doesn't seem as impactful.

This isn't being marketed as a farewell to the FC X-Men (because they pretty clearly intend to keep using McAvoy, at least, barring disaster). It's probably Lawrence's last.

 

[Tilapia]

Wander over to the comments section on Youtube for the Apocalypse trailer and you'll see comment after comment asking for Wolverine.

Meaningless. He was featured in the last film, and not a lot of people know that we are getting another Wolverine movie, so they might be curious. It's a noticeable absence but the character isn't the draw that it was. I think this film will prove that.

 

[iacobusleo]

Meaningless. He was featured in the last film, and not a lot of people know that we are getting another Wolverine movie, so they might be curious. It's a noticeable absence but the character isn't the draw that it was. I think this film will prove that.

Well, I would argue that we won't really know till we see how well Apocalypse performs at the box office, considering the highest grossing (quality) X-Men film so far has Wolverine front and center.

 

[Wildcard]

Unless Deadpool does it first. It is already higher than all the X-Men movies before it.

Looking at the numbers now, Deadpool will definitely achieve the feat first. It's already $235 million in and still has a whole month to eat up the box office further.

 

[BeholdMe]

Well, I would argue that we won't really know till we see how well Apocalypse performs at the box office, considering the highest grossing (quality) X-Men film so far has Wolverine front and center.

That movie had a lot going for it minus Wolverine so no he isn't why it did so well if it was his solo movies would follow suit. It's the movie as a whole as to why it did so well

 

[Bruce Malone]

Deadpool is probably on route to out-grossing even the adjusted box office of X2 and X3.

Both adjust to over 300 million.

 

[Sithborg]

And quite a few other comic book movies.

 

[iacobusleo]

That movie had a lot going for it minus Wolverine so no he isn't why it did so well if it was his solo movies would follow suit. It's the movie as a whole as to why it did so well

No I'm not saying Wolverine is the sole reason it did well, but like all movies, it was one of many contributing factors. Hence why I stress quality. Apocalypse is the first to come off well received films with no Wolverine in it. It's an unknown quantity at this point.

 

[Bruce Malone]

And quite a few other comic book movies.

Yup but it is technically under the Fox X-Men universe and was very unlikely to be the highest grossing film in that franchise.

 

[GuestStar2004]

So this also being a farewell doesn't seem as impactful.

I don't think many are seeing it as a farewell to this cast, Bryan singer has most certainly teased the idea of more so we can assume certain things could be left open

 

[SuperT]

Not to mention both McAvoy and Fassbender has already said multiple times they'd love to keep playing Professor X and Magneto. I'd also bet they can easily get Hoult back as Hank as well.

 

[marvelrobbins]

people forget there was hype ove return of original cast for DOFP

DOFP had most popular X-Men character wolverine in it.he's not In Apocalypse.
yes i know he might cameo but cameos mean nothing to drawing power.

the biggest star in APocalypse-Jennifer lawrence is much less liked by fandom
than Hugh Jackman.

Apocalypse opens 3 weeks after civil war.same day as alice 2 and week before TMNT2.

Deadpool will defently outgross Apocalypse.Apocalypse may fall short of DOFP.
The action will help make up for some of the lost elements of DOFP but Apocalypse will likely fall short of reaching what DOFP did.

 

[GuestStar2004]

Deadpool will defently outgross Apocalypse.Apocalypse may fall short of DOFP.
The action will help make up for some of the lost elements of DOFP but Apocalypse will likely fall short of reaching what DOFP did.

I am puzzled why you believe apocalypse will fall short of DOFP, while its certainly a possibility it could fall short there really isn't enough to hold against it to not making more then DOFP

 

[CaptainCanada]

the biggest star in APocalypse-Jennifer lawrence is much less liked by fandom
than Hugh Jackman.

Lawrence isn't as big as Jackman, but outside of certain message boards she is a more successful figure at the box office than Jackman these days.

Apocalypse opens 3 weeks after civil war.same day as alice 2 and week before TMNT2.

Three weeks after Civil War is meaningless; CW will have made most of its money by then. DOFP competed with Maleficent, among others, on the week after, which TMNT2 will almost certainly not outdraw.

 

[GuestStar2004]

When it comes to the box office its all up in the air, the most popular X-Man wolverine made $414.8 million at the box office for his last movie and was also 3D, now DOFP still made more then the wolverine so there was quite alot of the audience that didn't see the wolverine and while there will be people that say it was because the other OC helped bring in the audience i'd say in the end deadpool has shown that if you don't need an old cast to make alot of money at the box office

There is definitely a major difference with X-Men: First class and X-Men: Apocalypse, FC Was following X-Men: Origins which doesn't get a good rep, the cast were new and unknowns and it also had a fair amount of lesser known characters involved while apocalypse is pretty much the opposite of that, coming off some good will from previous movies, Cast are much better known now, has much better known characters including recent breakout quicksilver and also has one of the biggest X-Men villains to date.

So yeah its certainly possible it could fall short but it certainly has enough going for it to not fall short

 

[Sithborg]

The thing to remember about First Class and The Wolverine, is that they were also rebuilding films. X3 and Origins really hurt the franchise. Hell, I'm impressed with how The Wolverine performed after Origins.

The goodwill is back. Especially with DOFP and Deadpool. Now, I'm not expecting that to translate to beating Deadpool's opening weekend, but there is a good chance it can increase on DOFP's opening.

 

[Zarex]

Even if Apocalypse severely under performs - which I am not expecting - FOX has a realistic Plan B that didn't exist a few weeks back. A modern day slate built around Deadpool, X-Force, New Mutants and Gambit could be a attractive, more grounded alternative to the mega-budget offerings of WB and Disney/Marvel. And with Cable in the mix the 80s era newbies could be brought into the modern era without adding to continuity issues.

 

[Avalanche]

Three weeks after Civil War is meaningless; CW will have made most of its money by then. DOFP competed with Maleficent, among others, on the week after, which TMNT2 will almost certainly not outdraw.

TMNT2 has a closer demographic than Maleficent. It probably won't do as well as Maleficent but it probably will take more audience from X-Men due to demographics.

Apocalypse has a tougher ask than DoFP in terms of competing films, especially given what poor legs the films usually have.

 

[Sithborg]

TMNT is a bit of a wildcard. It could perform like Rise of the Fallen. Or it could perform like 3 or 4, relatively speaking. It will be interesting to see how it does.

Personally, I think what Fox will take from Deadpool is that R isn't as big of a detriment to the box office and you don't need your big action films to be in the $150-200 range.

 

[Snikt]

It appears Apocalypse's social media buzz is higher at this point, than DOFP was at the same point; I believe JP posted that link...great read.

Deadpool may out gross Apocalypse domestically, but I have a feeling it will beat Deadpool with the WW numbers. It's probably getting a China release which will help, it's in 3D which will help internationally as well.

 

[CaptainCanada]

It appears Apocalypse's social media buzz is higher at this point, than DOFP was at the same point; I believe JP posted that link...great read.

Deadpool may out gross Apocalypse domestically, but I have a feeling it will beat Deadpool with the WW numbers. It's probably getting a China release which will help, it's in 3D which will help internationally as well.

Yeah, China should be the ace in the hole as far as the global box office is concerned.

 

[Eddie]

I could see China declining a little from DoFP, though. No Fan Bingbing this time.