Apocalypse X-Men: Apocalypse Box Office Prediction Thread

[Smilodon]

In an interview after Deadpool's release, Wernick and Reese said that now that Deadpool's made a lot of money, Fox would perhaps let them have the keys to the Ferrari so to speak. So yeah, Ryan and co. are most definitely going to have a bit more freedom to include bigger X-Men characters. (Not that they had an issue working with lesser known characters).

Obviously they're going to have work around potential conflicts with other films, but Kinberg, Reese and Wernick aren't stupid, they know that. In spite of certain characters being potentially off limits (like Psylocke or Archangel), after the success of Deadpool, they could most definitely ask Fox to use someone like X-23 and Fox would most likely give them that. Or ask an OT member to reprise a role.

Deadpool/X-Force could be the next billion dollar property! The quicker they start to continue the world building that began in Deadpool with other X-Men properties, the better. Not crossover with Deadpool mind you, but continue to build up the world that Deadpool first established.

 

[GuestStar2004]

Because X-Men is the flagship series we can guess they will get Mr Sinister as a villain and may get first dibs on certain characters but there isn't anything wrong with that because like Negasonic Teenage Warhead there are plenty of X-Men characters who people haven't heard of that can be fleshed out as this universe is populated but it only seems small because everyone is pointing out the fan favourites

 

[def28]

Things have changed now with there being so many other properties. Deadpool and X-Force should have priority on characters like Cable, Domino and Siryn. And New Mutants should have the same priorities with Magik, Moonstar etc. Makes sense.

X-Men can't pull the wasted mute character nonsense anymore, cause there are other properties who will treat them more like A list as opposed to D. And that changes casting. They have to prioritize who is where, why and how does it benefit in the long run.

 

[Iceman]

I like Deadpool getting some of the guys not on the A list (at least as far as the films are concerned) as they get a chance to shine with much more focus while still playing a support role in the main X-films.

 

[BeholdMe]

Because X-Men is the flagship series we can guess they will get Mr Sinister as a villain and may get first dibs on certain characters but there isn't anything wrong with that because like Negasonic Teenage Warhead there are plenty of X-Men characters who people haven't heard of that can be fleshed out as this universe is populated but it only seems small because everyone is pointing out the fan favourites

This I can agree with and it does make sense. They can utilize different characters in different properties to get the most out of them.

 

[Avalanche]

Looks like Deadpool won't be able to top DoFP worldwide now? Not having China is likely the main reason, which is a shame. That said, profit wise I'm sure it's the most successful by far.

 

[Tilapia]

X-Force and X-Men doesn't necessarily have to overlap. Yeah you can have glorified X-Men cameos like Jackman showing up in Deadpool for one last appearance past W3, but it's going to be two separate franchises, until they do a time travel film/cross over which is inevitable if both franchises are still banking. I think we are looking at:

2017: Wolverine 3
2018: Deadpool 2 (Spring/Summer)
2019: X-Men 7: Sinister
2020: X-Force/Cable (Deadpool in support)
2021: Deadpool 3
2022: X-Men 8
2023: Crossover/X-Men 9/Time Travel/Phoenix Event film (first 1.5 billion dollar grosser of the saga)

 

[Gerontophobe]

Looks like Deadpool won't be able to top DoFP worldwide now? Not having China is likely the main reason, which is a shame. That said, profit wise I'm sure it's the most successful by far.

Whether it will beat DoFP worldwide is still undetermined. My approximation based on drops so far would be for DP to finish between $740M and $745M; DoFP grossed $747.9M so it will be close. While not releasing in China certainly didn’t help, a strong dollar also suppressed overseas grosses. Had it sold the same number of tickets in 2014, it would have made something like $70M more overseas.

X-Force and X-Men doesn't necessarily have to overlap. Yeah you can have glorified X-Men cameos like Jackman showing up in Deadpool for one last appearance past W3, but it's going to be two separate franchises, until they do a time travel film/cross over which is inevitable if both franchises are still banking. I think we are looking at:

2017: Wolverine 3
2018: Deadpool 2 (Spring/Summer)
2019: X-Men 7: Sinister
2020: X-Force/Cable (Deadpool in support)
2021: Deadpool 3
2022: X-Men 8
2023: Crossover/X-Men 9/Time Travel/Phoenix Event film (first 1.5 billion dollar grosser of the saga)

Fox has scheduled two Marvel movies in both 2017 and 2018. I think it is safe to assume those will all be X-Men movies and not another FF. My speculation for dates they’ve announced:

May 27, 2016: Apocalypse
Mar 3, 2017: Wolverine 3
Oct 6, 2017: Gambit
Jan 12, 2018: Deadpool 2
Jul 13, 2018: X-Men 7

Beyond that, I would expect X-Force or New Mutants in 2019 followed by Deadpool 3 in 2020.

 

[psylockolussus]

The budget could well go up for the sequel after these crazy returns.

Honestly I'm fine if they keep things the way they are. I just want the cinematography to look better. There were a lot of shots (especially indoor shots) that looked made for TV.

 

[Iceman]

Honestly I'm fine if they keep things the way they are. I just want the cinematography to look better. There were a lot of shots (especially indoor shots) that looked made for TV.

Yeah. At least there won't be anything looking cheap in the sequel for financial reasons. It's still a solo character film for a guy who doesn't require huge sums on his own effects so given how much money it's made in its debut, there should be no worries going forward on cinematography or otherwise down to cost at least.

 

[psylockolussus]

I think $100 million will do for Deadpool II unless the writers/director/the returning actors get a really big salary raise.

 

[Iceman]

Probably. It's plenty to cover his own effects and a couple of co-stars. It's probably other characters where the most potential for extra costs comes from depending what effects they need.

 

[def28]

100-150M is completely reasonable. That's around First Class and Wolverine budget. Just give them whatever they need for their script. A ton of FX were needed for the first film and they had to cut corners. Pay cuts were also substantial. They won't want to work like that again with it's success.

 

[CaptainCanada]

Looks like Deadpool won't be able to top DoFP worldwide now? Not having China is likely the main reason, which is a shame. That said, profit wise I'm sure it's the most successful by far.

I'd say it's the most profitable superhero movie, period.

 

[Electrix]

Pros:

• Biggest X-Men movie to date in terms of scope and action
• Goodwill built from last 3/4 well received films
• Following from Days of Future Past which did $750m worldwide
• World destruction tends to do well internationally
• More focus on popular characters such as Jean, Cyclops, Storm & Nightcrawler
• 80s nostalgia vibe/animated series vibe
• Great cast
• Trailers generally well received

Cons:

• Fourth big superhero movie this year. Fatigue?
• The Avengers 2.5 and Justice League: First Class could easy do a billion each. Potential to overshadow.
• Going up against Alice in Wonderland 2. Last one did $1 billion and could take away the female audience that weekend.
• Jennifer Lawrence fatigue/fans not keen on Mystique push
• No audience attachment to the new younger cast
• No Wolverine. He's a draw even though The Wolverine made around $400m worldwide.

Hopefully it does similar to DoFP.

 

[Gerontophobe]

I'd say it's the most profitable superhero movie, period.

It depends how you measure it. A lazy analysis (assuming studios get about 50% even though that number is smaller and varies by market/distributor/etc.):

Deadpool: ~$750M gross on $58M budget with $30M(?) in marketing = net of $287M, $3.26/dollar
Avengers: $1.514B gross on $220M budget with $80M in marketing = net of $457M, $1.52/dollar

From this simplistic math, Deadpool was much more profitable per dollar spent but Avengers made far more in net for Disney. Off course, the actual situation is far more complex. Merchandising and home video revenue for Avengers was pretty notable. On the other hand, Disney spent a lot of money to purchase the rights to Avengers (both Marvel and distribution from Paramount) while Deadpool was a lot cheaper for Fox. There’s also the question of backend compensation (see RDJ) as well as the multitude of little Hollywood deals. In the end, both movies were indisputably big successes for their respective studios and I couldn’t be happier to see quality rewarded.

 

[metaphysician]

The deadpool guys pretty much said there were restrictions to who they could use anyway.

they said they were handed a list of who they were allowed to use and probably shouldnt expect a proper cross over anytime soon.

Yeah, but note, that was when Deadpool was being grudgingly made and expected to be a fizzle. I suspect the creative team will have *faaaaar* more freedom for a sequel or spinoff. After all, they just earned more money than any other X-Men movie.

Edit: Some back of the envelope calculations suggest that the X-Men franchise as a whole has earned Fox something like 800M in total profit. Of that, slightly over 300M comes from Deadpool alone.

 

[Gerontophobe]

Pros:

• Biggest X-Men movie to date in terms of scope and action
• Goodwill built from last 3/4 well received films
• Following from Days of Future Past which did $750m worldwide
• World destruction tends to do well internationally
• More focus on popular characters such as Jean, Cyclops, Storm & Nightcrawler
• 80s nostalgia vibe/animated series vibe
• Great cast
• Trailers generally well received

Cons:

• Fourth big superhero movie this year. Fatigue?
• The Avengers 2.5 and Justice League: First Class could easy do a billion each. Potential to overshadow.
• Going up against Alice in Wonderland 2. Last one did $1 billion and could take away the female audience that weekend.
• Jennifer Lawrence fatigue/fans not keen on Mystique push
• No audience attachment to the new younger cast
• No Wolverine. He's a draw even though The Wolverine made around $400m worldwide.

Hopefully it does similar to DoFP.

A few thoughts on a pretty good list of things for and against XMA: You mention that Jean, Scott, Storm and Nightcrawler may be appealing but I think to the GA they’ll just be more new faces (as you mentioned in the cons), largely nullifying any gain. While the cast may be considered “great” by some (I’m a huge fan of Isaac and McAvoy), none outside of Jennifer Lawrence and maybe to a small extent Fassbender are going to be much of a draw. (While fans may not be keen on Lawrence being so front-and-center, in the end they’re still going to see the movie and see has some pull with many women from the GA.) As for the cons, I don’t think competition/superhero fatigue is going to hurt it that much, at least relative to DoFP. That movie opened after two major superhero flicks (TWS and TASM2) and around a live-action Disney adaptation (Maleficent). It also had Godzilla open to $90M a week before and Neighbors still doing well. Mostly, I agree and think it will do very similar to DoFP numbers.

 

[Tilapia]

Just saw the trailer... and simply put, not a billion dollar movie, or anything close. It's looking closer to TLS than it is DoFP in terms of quality. While I expect more from Singer, think he may be out of his comfort zone with the Psylocke cleavage shots and crazy visuals. This screams franchise fatigue to me. Hoping I am wrong, but I am actually missing Wolverine for the first time since the cast was set. Who is going to step up and salvage this film? Magneto/Fassy looks like a puppet here, quite literally.

 

[Gerontophobe]

Some back of the envelope calculations suggest that the X-Men franchise as a whole has earned Fox something like 800M in total profit. Of that, slightly over 300M comes from Deadpool alone.

That Deadpool accounted for so much sounded high to me so I performed similar calculations. It is tricky to accurately compare between them as things like profit-sharing and home revenue differ so much, but using only unadjusted box office and estimated marketing spend, the rest of the films together did… worse. Using a 50% revenue split, only X-Men, X2, Wolverine, and DoFP made money from their theatrical runs. Taking out TLS, XMOW, and FC (which all seem to have lost $20-25M), the whole franchise has made around $500M and Deadpool accounts for 58% of that. I’m thinking Fox might take note of that.

 

[Tilapia]

They won't stop making X-Films, but X-Force will be the 'future X-Men' if you want to talk continuity and timelines. I don't see them returning to the original X-Men lineup in the present tense any time soon (logically since those characters are all older, sans a few like Colossus and maybe Rogue/Kitty/Bobby who'd be in there prime but won't be show up anyhow). X-Men will exist and be acknowledged, but I think more so for parodies or larger jokes/gags in Deadpool sequels.

 

[Wildcard]

Looks like Deadpool won't be able to top DoFP worldwide now? Not having China is likely the main reason, which is a shame. That said, profit wise I'm sure it's the most successful by far.

That's not set in stone. DP still has great odds when it comes to grossing more than DOFP. The only way it wouldn't happen would be for DP to drop completely off the map right now. But it's holding strong domestically & overseas.

 

[psylockolussus]

[*]No audience attachment to the new younger cast
[*]No Wolverine. He's a draw even though The Wolverine made around $400m worldwide.[/LIST]

Those are definitely big cons!

I'm telling you, if this movie had Hugh Jackman, Patrick Stewart, and the rest of the original cast versus the new villains, the hype would be bigger simply because of the audience attachment - and majority of the cast from DOFP would have been in the film unlike right now where you have like only 5 cast members (in major/supporting roles) returning from DOFP.

And its not helpful that they are pushing Jennifer Lawrence even more into the promotion, like as if that helped DOFP so much this would have been an easy $275 million domestic gross if they retained the "cast" that had more history with the mainstream viewers and had a better reception at the end of DOFP.

 

[RLAAMJR.]

X-Force and X-Men doesn't necessarily have to overlap. Yeah you can have glorified X-Men cameos like Jackman showing up in Deadpool for one last appearance past W3, but it's going to be two separate franchises, until they do a time travel film/cross over which is inevitable if both franchises are still banking. I think we are looking at:

2017: Wolverine 3
2018: Deadpool 2 (Spring/Summer)
2019: X-Men 7: Sinister
2020: X-Force/Cable (Deadpool in support)
2021: Deadpool 3
2022: X-Men 8
2023: Crossover/X-Men 9/Time Travel/Phoenix Event film (first 1.5 billion dollar grosser of the saga)

2018: Storm

 

[Retroman]

My guess is that the FF rights have already reverted or are in process. I doubt Marvel gave up their exclusive rights to produce Marvel branded television program for nothing.

In any case, Deadpool's crazy success made it much more unlikely that a FOX FF re-reboot would ever come to pass. After making a gajillion dollars or so on a $60M Wade Wilson film, what are the chances that FOX would approve anywhere from 2.5 to 3 times that budget to resurrect a failed franchise, one that hasn't earned the studio a dime in over a decade? I expect Disney to green light "Tomorrowland Two" before we see another FOX FF film.

We're seeing the third 21st century incarnation of Spider-Man and the Punisher this year. If a good director or writer made a great pitch for FF i could see FOX doing the same a couple years from now.

Pros:

• Biggest X-Men movie to date in terms of scope and action
• Goodwill built from last 3/4 well received films
• Following from Days of Future Past which did $750m worldwide
• World destruction tends to do well internationally
• More focus on popular characters such as Jean, Cyclops, Storm & Nightcrawler
• 80s nostalgia vibe/animated series vibe
• Great cast
• Trailers generally well received

Cons:

• Fourth big superhero movie this year. Fatigue?
• The Avengers 2.5 and Justice League: First Class could easy do a billion each. Potential to overshadow.
• Going up against Alice in Wonderland 2. Last one did $1 billion and could take away the female audience that weekend.
• Jennifer Lawrence fatigue/fans not keen on Mystique push
• No audience attachment to the new younger cast
• No Wolverine. He's a draw even though The Wolverine made around $400m worldwide.

Hopefully it does similar to DoFP.

Good points.

The lack of attachment with the younger cast could be a good thing in the long run.