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I think XMen ensemble films and Wolverine films are different I personally feel more people will go out to see ensemble films than a Wolverine solo, I haven't even seen the latest The Wolverine movie or even the Orgins film. So of course he won't sell like an XMen ensemble film but he still does right on his own, just expecting the same numbers from the two films I just don't see it happening.
Like I said, prequels or spin-offs tend to gross lower at the box-office, there's so many examples to this. Even if X3 was great as X2. The box-office decline would have still happened with Origins and First Class.