2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions) - Part 4

[Bruce Malone]

Well as we've mentioned before we need to wait for the dailies and next weekend's gross to get a good picture.

I think the "doom and gloom" of some people actually predicting under 400m are off. TDKR is blowing up on social media and there are TDKR articles popping up everywhere many people are talking about this movie in a good way.

 

[Liam_H]

Well yea its everywhere, the movie just got released, Nolan's last film and they're still all talking about the shooting. I never said under $400 million, which just means disaster.

 

[chaseter]

ASM got spanked hard this weekend. Awesome how I guessed $225-$250 a year ago.

 

[rayc1971]

ASM got spanked hard this weekend. Awesome how I guessed $225-$250 a year ago.[/QUOTE wow it did worse than i thought was trackin at 17mill for the weekend 10mill is bad 69% drop.looks like 250mill is tops

 

[Liam_H]

All movies got hit hard this weekend.

 

[terry78]

Well, the summer season isn't over technically until August ends. But it looks like the only movie to really shatter records was Avengers. And Ted in a sense, due to the legs it had for being a comedy.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

Battleship shattered records too.

 

[Doctor Jones]

Man, I can understand why people who were afraid but still. People shouldn't let one person make them afraid to go to the movies and enjoy themselves. Not only that, it's not what the filmmakers would have wanted.

 

[DACrowe]

I'm pretty sure that the tragedy cost TDKR at least $20 million this weekend. With the projections it had a week ago, no way it would have opened under at least $180 million if not for what happened.

But it doesn't really matter. Most of that audience will see the movie eventually and it will still make all that money. So, it won't have the first or second largest opening weekend ever and had to settle for the third. Oh well. It seems so pointlessly trivial considering so many are dead and maimed.

Other than a few people who were on the fence on the movie or maybe some concerned parents, everyone who chose to miss it OW wil lsee eventually. At least, I think so.

 

[chaseter]

I think TDKR will have a modest drop this weekend....indicating people who skipped opening weekend are getting back out to see it.

 

[terry78]

Unless they want to see something more lighthearted like Step Up or The Watch.

 

[Liam_H]

Or if the continued bad press in the news continues to effect them. We don't know when people will go see this movie or any other movie if they decided to skip in the first place.

 

[rayc1971]

19.5mill on a monday is pretty healthy

 

[Destructus86]

People in Retail and Fast Food tend to work their butts off with not a lot of days off. And there are A LOT of people that work in those fields. Sometimes Monday's or some other random day are the only time they have the time to see anything

 

[DACrowe]

Or if the continued bad press in the news continues to effect them. We don't know when people will go see this movie or any other movie if they decided to skip in the first place.

Again, I think a few lost their taste for the movie all together because of the news, but mostly people on the fence who might have gone just because of the "event" status of the movie or parents who are going to be wary of their children seeing the "violent movie" even more now. However, for the most part those who want to see it will do so. While the tragedy sucked the air out of its opening weekend, I think most people can compartmentalize that after a week or so and see the movie if they want to.

 

[Liam_H]

But such an incident has a greater chance to effect GA members. The ones who don't follow movies at all an decide with very little time in between. People can tell them oh its good go see it, but hearing about the tragedy they'll put it off. Then once that happens, chances become that they'll see it.

 

[chaseter]

20 mil on a Monday is great.

I bet we see a less than 50% drop this weekend.

 

[Bruce Malone]

Unless they want to see something more lighthearted like Step Up or The Watch.

It's interesting how the Watch itself was greatly impacted by a tragedy as well. If any of you recall it was originally called "neighborhood watch" and featured a teaser that was pulled where you had the guys riding through a neighborhood and jonah hill's character pointing finger guns out the window.

The Trayvon Martin case changed all that though.

 

[:eek:]

20 mil on a Monday is great.

I bet we see a less than 50% drop this weekend.

Not so sure about that. TDKR seems to be more frontloaded. It made more than TDK on the opening day, but from day 2 it has made slightly less. And the Monday gross is a 51,8% drop from Sunday, while TDK made $24,5 million on its first Monday (a 43,8% drop). And TDK ended up with a second weekend that was a 52,5% drop from its opening weekend

 

[chaseter]

TDK didn't have a theater massacre opening day.

Seems to be frontloaded? It's been open for 5 days.....................................................................

 

[craigdbfan]

I went for a second viewing today and the entire theater was packed. Take that for what you will.

 

[Liam_H]

You can certainly gauge if a movie is frontloaded by its first few days. But because of the shooting we just don't know for sure how many people were put off from seeing the movie. We also don't know exactly when they'll return if at all.

 

[El Hombre Gato]

I don't think the effect is all that big. The film is, more or less, doing the same business as The Avengers. Difference is that Avengers had 3D subcharges so it grossed more. But both movies are selling ALMOST the same amount of tickets.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

That is true. After doing the math a few pages back, even without 3D surcharges, Avengers would still have the opening weekend record over TDKR and Harry Potter.

 

[terry78]

Don't use 3D as an excuse when something scores at the box office. Like I said before, the fact remains that all those people still went to see it, 3D or not.