2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions) - Part 4

[Shifty]

The international markets love 3D as well, so they're here to stay for the foreseeable future.

 

[mclay18]

I think TDKR's second weekend is going to drop hard. With our area still in the hot and sticky forecast, that should've brought in more people to escape the heat... we had a decent turnout for the super bargain matinee shows. Of course, severe storm systems blew through our area around 6-7 p.m., which probably deterred more people from coming. (We might get an influx of people here tomorrow, but I don't know.)

The Watch looks be DOA. Step Up 4 is faring better, but not that much better. I think that tragedy has severely cut into the earnings of every film, and I think we'll be in for a big slowdown unless Bourne Legacy and Expendables 2 perks things up a lot.

 

[:eek:]

Top 20 worldwide

1. Marvel's The Avengers $1460,1 million
2. The Hunger Games $682,4 million
3. The Amazing Spider-Man $621,3 million
4. Men in Black 3 $618,9 million
5. Ice Age: Continental Drift $551,5 million
6. Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted $490,7 million
7. Snow White and the Huntsman $381,3 million
8. The Dark Knight Rises $374,2 million
9. The Intouchables $356,3 million
10. Titanic $343,6 million ($2185,4 million in total)
11. Journey 2: The Mysterious Island $325,9 million
12. Dr. Seuss' The Lorax $313,6 million
13. Battleship $302,7 million
14. Prometheus $302,5 million
15. Wrath of the Titans $302 million
16. Brave $283,5 million
17. John Carter $282,8 million
18. Dark Shadows $235,9 million
19. American Reunion $233,6 million
20. Ted $225,7 million

 

[Bruce Malone]

I think TDKR's second weekend is going to drop hard. With our area still in the hot and sticky forecast, that should've brought in more people to escape the heat... we had a decent turnout for the super bargain matinee shows. Of course, severe storm systems blew through our area around 6-7 p.m., which probably deterred more people from coming. (We might get an influx of people here tomorrow, but I don't know.)

The Watch looks be DOA. Step Up 4 is faring better, but not that much better. I think that tragedy has severely cut into the earnings of every film, and I think we'll be in for a big slowdown unless Bourne Legacy and Expendables 2 perks things up a lot.

With no competition really at all (step up is a totally different demo) and the watch looking like a bomb TDKR being really sucesful this weekend really depends on people's enthusiams for going to the movies this weekend.

Again TDKR's word of mouth is great so any big drop would be a sign of the climate now.

 

[Shifty]

Apparently 20-25% of the movie going audience won't be seeing any films this weekend because of the tragedy. Having a 6 year old die has to be keeping some families away. In their view its not worth the risk to see any film, they can wait to see it at home or wait 3-4 weeks to see it in theaters.

 

[CConn]

That's just dumb logic in general

You might as well just stop leaving your house if you're afraid of people randomly going paychopathic.

 

[Bruce Malone]

That's just dumb logic in general

You might as well just stop leaving your house if you're afraid of people randomly going paychopathic.

+1

Out of respect for the tragedy i'm trying not to call out too much of the dumb logic going around but food for thought anyone is about 1,000,000 times more likely to get killed in a car accident on the way to the movie theater than some random person shooting it up.

Not to mention i suppose none of us should go to schools or office buildings or postal offices since those have all been scenes of mass shootings.

It's shock psychology unfortunately, another example would be shark attacks keeping people from beaches when more ppl a year die from falling coconuts than shark attacks.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

That's just dumb logic in general

You might as well just stop leaving your house if you're afraid of people randomly going paychopathic.

I know, but people get paranoid about anything these days.

 

[CConn]

What do you mean "these days"?

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

What do you mean "these days"?

Probably a poor choice of words there.

 

[mclay18]

Again TDKR's word of mouth is great so any big drop would be a sign of the climate now.

As I am loathe to mention it, Toldja reports that TDKR's second weekend is dropping 78% to $55M. Now while it's still a possibility that Saturday matinee shows might bounce upwards and soften the blow... that's still a shocking drop for a film that otherwise has great word-of-mouth.

 

[craigdbfan]

I think the Olympics is something else to factor in.

 

[Iceman]

As I am loathe to mention it, Toldja reports that TDKR's second weekend is dropping 78% to $55M. Now while it's still a possibility that Saturday matinee shows might bounce upwards and soften the blow... that's still a shocking drop for a film that otherwise has great word-of-mouth.

No way! That's a worse drop than HP8 on its way to 20m short of $400m, off a bigger opening weekend. Never thought this could make less than $400m.

 

[The Chris]

Jeez. This sucks. A movie this liked shouldnt be dropping that hard, olympics or not.

 

[Doctor Jones]

....

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I'm sure the Olympics hurt the movie on Friday more than anything else. I expect it to bounce back over the weekend and do better than 55mil. Do I think that the theater shooting effected it's opening weekend? Sure but theater shooting or not it was never going to out gross the Avengers. Also I keep hearing people say it but I do not think that the word of mouth was as good as TDK's. Period. I think it's good but not to that level.

Yes, lets all feel sorry that Warners is going to only make a billion dollars off of TDKR and not 2 billion. Where will they find the money to eat?

 

[craigdbfan]

I'm sure the Olympics hurt the movie on Friday more than anything else. I expect it to bounce back over the weekend and do better than 55mil. Do I think that the theater shooting effected it's opening weekend? Sure but theater shooting or not it was never going to out gross the Avengers. Also I keep hearing people say it but I do not think that the word of mouth was as good as TDK's. Period. I think it's good but not to that level.

Pretty much.

 

[mclay18]

I think the Olympics is something else to factor in.

Yeah, but still... a movie with good WOM and solid weekday numbers shouldn't just plummet 78% in its second weekend. At worst I expected a 55%-65% drop akin to TDK.

Jeez. This sucks. A movie this liked shouldnt be dropping that hard, olympics or not.

Perhaps the weekday numbers this week leading up to Total Recall will hold, and the film will stabilize next weekend.

 

[craigdbfan]

Three factors I think played into TDKR's lower take:

1.) Aurora incident
2.) Olympics
3.) Reception being really good but still nowhere near the jubilant fixation people went through with TDK.

 

[Marvin]

As I am loathe to mention it, Toldja reports that TDKR's second weekend is dropping 78% to $55M. Now while it's still a possibility that Saturday matinee shows might bounce upwards and soften the blow... that's still a shocking drop for a film that otherwise has great word-of-mouth.

Holy Shikes....but I can't say I'm surprised. I actually predicted 390 range. This was a movie about batman(not Joker), and I just don't think nolan has him being all that interesting thus the audience will only take it so far. LOTR numbers are nothing to scoff at though.

This drop is a bit much I'd say. Especially considering it didn't open with Avengers numbers. There's just not as much "you've gotta go see such and such" as there was last time.

At this point I'm very curious to see what the sterner comp(than 2008) will do against this installment.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I do think that it will bounce back in the following weeks and do better than what people think because I do think that it is a solid film and people liked it.

As for the other films, The Watch looked stupid and was a dreaded sci fi comedy so that failure is not shocking and the Step Up franchise has been going down hill for a while.

 

[Liam_H]

As I am loathe to mention it, Toldja reports that TDKR's second weekend is dropping 78% to $55M. Now while it's still a possibility that Saturday matinee shows might bounce upwards and soften the blow... that's still a shocking drop for a film that otherwise has great word-of-mouth.

No way! That's a worse drop than HP8 on its way to 20m short of $400m, off a bigger opening weekend. Never thought this could make less than $400m.

Yeah, but still... a movie with good WOM and solid weekday numbers shouldn't just plummet 78% in its second weekend. At worst I expected a 55%-65% drop akin to TDK.

Guys this is a 78% drop for the Friday number which of course its huge since it was inflated by the midnight number. So if it ends up with the $55 million weekend number thats just a drop of 66%. Yea that's still bad but its not as bad as you think.

I'm holding out hope that the Friday number was deflated by the Olympics but this movie is not performing like the great WOM people keep saying its getting.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Guys this is a 78% drop for the Friday number which of course its huge since it was inflated by the midnight number. So if it ends up with the $55 million weekend number thats just a drop of 66%. Yea that's still bad but its not as bad as you think.

I'm holding out hope that the Friday number was deflated by the Olympics but this movie is not performing like the great WOM people keep saying its getting.

That's because it's word of mouth isn't as good as the fanboys are making it out to be. Now don't get me wrong, I think that the word of mouth is good and I do think that external things are hurting the film but it's ******** to claim that the word of mouth is as good or better than the second film. It flat out isn't and I never expected it to be so not shocking. A 66% drop would be surprising though because I wasn't expecting it but factoring in the good but not stellar word of mouth and the Olympics I expected a 56 to 60% drop.

 

[Liam_H]

People also said OW as depreciated by the shooting so the 2nd weekend drop should be cushioned but how can anyone judge that. People that stayed away last weekend could just as well stay away this weekend.

TDKR never had the factor of Ledger's Joker. But they certainly could've made up for some of it with Catwoman. Anne was fantastic in the movie and she brought the fun in, but she was in so little of the movie that its effect is minimal.

 

[:eek:]

Boxoffice.com have $59,5 million as early estimates for TDKR (a 63% drop). While I think it's clear now that it will make less than TDK domestically it could make more internationally. TDK really didn't have very impressive international numbers. And TDKR would follow the same pattern as some other big sequels in recent years. Making less domestically while expanding internationally.