2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions) - Part 5

[MadVillainy]

You mean number 1 box office?
I dont think so

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

That's a good number for a Bourne spin off but I wouldn't be surprised if it ended the weekend just under 40mil when all is said and done.

And like I said Legacy ended under 40mil with a 38.1mil actual. It's still a decent opening for a spin off but the legs will have to be there for it to mean anything. Personally I think that it's in for a 55 to 60% drop because of The expendables and shaky word of mouth.

 

[Evil Twin]

Yeah, Bourne's numbers fell so quickly over the weekend that I can't see how it's not going to take a tumble next weekend. Early weekday numbers weren't much better than The Campaign and The Dark Knight Rises, either.

Anybody that doubts The Hobbit's potential to go well over a billion is fooling themselves. Return of the King made $1.1 billion worldwide in 2003. We have almost a decade of ticket price inflation, international box office expansion, and 3D and IMAX upcharges to factor into the Hobbit's potential. Plus the fact that there might be more showings because it's certainly possible that each of the Hobbit films won't be 3 hours long as there's not that much source material. $1 billion worldwide is the floor if it's any good.

Heck, I'll go further. The Hobbit has a legit chance at $2 billion worldwide.

 

[chaseter]

Nitro Circus hahaha. I bet they thought it was going to do a lot better than that. I can't find a budget but I bet it cost $5-$10 mil at the lowest.

 

[marvelman2006]

Nitro Circus hahaha. I bet they thought it was going to do a lot better than that. I can't find a budget but I bet it cost $5-$10 mil at the lowest.

I saw a preview of that before dark knight rises and some people laughed but most I could hear around me saying or mentioning how they stole the jackass concept. I actually forogt it came out.

 

[:eek:]

Top 20 worldwide

1. Marvel's The Avengers $1461,9 million
2. The Dark Knight Rises $837,2 million
3. Ice Age: Continental Drift $768 million
4. The Amazing Spider-Man $690,9 million
5. The Hunger Games $684,4 million
6. Men in Black 3 $621 million
7. Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted $548,2 million
8. Snow White and the Huntsman $389,2 million
9. Brave $374,6 million
10. The Intouchables $361,4 million
11. Titanic $343,6 million ($2185,4 million in total)
12. Dr. Seuss' The Lorax $335,4 million
13. Journey 2: The Mysterious Island $325,9 million
14. Ted $323,5 million
15. Prometheus $320,5 million
16. Battleship $302,8 million
17. Wrath of the Titans $302 million
18. John Carter $282,8 million
19. Dark Shadows $236,5 million
20. American Reunion $233,6 million

 

[rashad]

Top 20 worldwide
2. The Dark Knight Rises $837,2 million

2. The Dark Knight Rises $840 million

 

[El Hombre Gato]

Based on early estimates, it seems that Dark Knight Rises won't be in the top 5 this weekend.

For comparisons:

The Dark Knight - 8 weeks in top 5
Batman `89 - 7 weeks in top 5

 

[rashad]

1. The Expendables 2 $10,500,000 - $10,500,000
2. The Bourne Legacy $5,300,000 - $57,861,000
3. Sparkle $4,600,000 - $4,550,000
4. ParaNorman $4,500,000 - $4.5
5. The Campaign $4,175,000 - $42,484,000
6. The Odd Life of Timothy Green $3,403,000 - 7,681,000
7. The Dark Knight Rises $3,125,000 - $401,901,000
8. Hope Springs $2,750,000 - $28,702,000
9. Diary of a Wimpy Kid 3 $1,150,000 - $36,062,000
10. Total Recall $1,050,000 - $49,332,000

http://boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/

TDKR becomes the 4th fastest to cross 400 million.
http://boxofficemojo.com/lu.php?3U5

 

[Liam_H]

Officially the first time where there are 3 movies to have earned at least $400 million domestically in a year. Don't think there's ever even been three $350 million earners, excluding this year of course.

 

[Bruce Malone]

Yeah there doesn't seem to be anything close to this year. We'll see how welll The Hobbit does as well.

 

[rayc1971]

expendables only doing 28mill for the weekend i was hoping for 40mill with its 100mill budget doesnt look good for a 3rd film

 

[TheOnlyOmega]

Nitro Circus hahaha. I bet they thought it was going to do a lot better than that. I can't find a budget but I bet it cost $5-$10 mil at the lowest.

It probably would have done decent numbers if it was released to more than 800 theaters. My group of friends was planning on seeing it, but the closest theater played it was 60+ miles away.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

expendables only doing 28mill for the weekend i was hoping for 40mill with its 100mill budget doesnt look good for a 3rd film

Yeah, really lame numbers. Personally I thought it would 45mil or at least in the high 30's.

 

[:eek:]

Officially the first time where there are 3 movies to have earned at least $400 million domestically in a year. Don't think there's ever even been three $350 million earners, excluding this year of course.

Remains to see if there will be a new box office record this year. 2012 might be ahead of 2009 (which has the record) at the moment, but is slightly behind 2010. But with movies like Breaking Dawn part 2 and The Hobbit coming out toward the end of the year it should have a good chance.

 

[El Hombre Gato]

Officially the first time where there are 3 movies to have earned at least $400 million domestically in a year.

Which is amusing considering most movies have flopped this year. This sends an interesting message to Hollywood. People will pay ridiculous ticket prices if it's worth it.

As for The Expendables 2, let's keep in mind two things. 1) Old-Timers teaming up is not special anymore. It was funny the first time. Now? Been there. Done that. 2) The first movie kind of sucked. So, the mainstream audience wasn't hyped for the sequel.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

Expendables marketing was classic bait and switch. Playing on nostalgia for mid-80s/early-90s crappy actioners starring tough guys is one thing (A promise it delivered). Heavily suggesting the whole film was Sly/Arnold/Bruce together is another. That came back to haunt them as I suspected.

Old saying is true. Play with matches... you get burned.

 

[TheVileOne]

But that wasn't the case for this movie ...

 

[rashad]

Gitesh Pandya ‏@giteshpandya #Expendables2 opens #1 this wknd w/ $28.8M, 17% weaker than last pic. 1st #1 hit for ChuckNorris in 27 years!
http://***********/giteshpandya/status/237206366488514560

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

This year has been pretty lame at the box office and despite what Hollywood is going to claim the Summer wasn't special before the shootings in Aruora. Snow White and the Huntsman did okay but it probably did about 20mil less than Universal thought it would here in the states. Prometheus did okay but I bet that Fox expected it to have legs after it's strong opening like adult skewing sci fi flicks Super 8 and Inception did. I'm not saying Inception numbers as that's too high an expectation but they couldn't have been expecting for it to only slightly outgross Super 8 after opening with 15 million more. Battleship and Dark Shadows tanked hard and part of that is Avengers related but mostly it's the fact that the movies looked like ****. Yes Batman, Avengers, Ted, Brave and Spiderman have all grossed over 200mil but only Ted and just how big The Avengers was was a true surprise.

 

[rashad]

Studio Weekend Estimates
http://www.boxoffice.com/statistics/bo_numbers/studio_estimate/2012-08-19

1 The Expendables 2 $28,750,000 -- 3,316 -- $8,670 $28,750,000 1 Lionsgate
2 The Bourne Legacy $17,020,000 -55% 3,753 8 $4,535 $69,581,080 2 Universal
3 ParaNorman $14,008,498 -- 3,429 -- $4,085 $14,008,498 1 Focus
4 The Campaign $13,385,000 -50% 3,255 50 $4,112 $51,693,537 2 Warner Bros.
5 Sparkle (2012) $12,000,000 -- 2,244 -- $5,348 $12,000,000 1 Sony / TriStar
6 The Dark Knight Rises $11,140,000 -41% 3,157 -533 $3,529 $409,915,911 5 Warner Bros.
7 The Odd Life of Timothy Green $10,909,000 -- 2,598 -- $4,199 $15,187,015 1 Disney
8 Hope Springs (2012) $9,100,000 -38% 2,361 0 $3,854 $35,051,792 2 Sony / Columbia
9 Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days $3,850,000 -52% 2,737 -664 $1,407 $38,762,321 3 Fox
10 Total Recall (2012) $3,500,000 -56% 2,434 -1167 $1,438 $51,782,443 3 Sony / Columbia
11 Ice Age: Continental Drift $2,950,000 -54% 2,274 -829 $1,297 $150,136,416 6 Fox
12 Ted (2012) $1,600,000 -50% 1,169 -1039 $1,369 $213,121,305 8 Universal

 

[rayc1971]

This year has been pretty lame at the box office and despite what Hollywood is going to claim the Summer wasn't special before the shootings in Aruora. Snow White and the Huntsman did okay but it probably did about 20mil less than Universal thought it would here in the states. Prometheus did okay but I bet that Fox expected it to have legs after it's strong opening like adult skewing sci fi flicks Super 8 and Inception did. I'm not saying Inception numbers as that's too high an expectation but they couldn't have been expecting for it to only slightly outgross Super 8 after opening with 15 million more. Battleship and Dark Shadows tanked hard and part of that is Avengers related but mostly it's the fact that the movies looked like ****. Yes Batman, Avengers, Ted, Brave and Spiderman have all grossed over 200mil but only Ted and just how big The Avengers was was a true surprise.

my thoughts exactly on the summer boxoffice.lookin forward to the winter boxoffice the hobbit and skyfall to name a few.t:

 

[Shifty]

Officially the first time where there are 3 movies to have earned at least $400 million domestically in a year. Don't think there's ever even been three $350 million earners, excluding this year of course.

This year is just one of 12 to feature three films sell more than 50 million tickets domestically. That would put the films over $400 million in revenue when adjusting for inflation. Below are the adjusted dollar figures, followed by what they earned in the year of release. There were more years where two strong films crossed over 50 million but getting the hat trick is very rare.
1984, 2002, 2004 were the only years where it was close to having four films cross that mark. Looking at what the LOTR films sold, 2012 should be the first year where four films sold over 50 million when The Hobbit comes out. 2012 just happens to have the perfect storm having TDKR and The Hobbit followed by two surprises in The Avengers and The Hunger Games.

2012
Marvel's The Avengers $617,603,000
The Hunger Games $407,693,000
The Dark Knight Rises $409,916,000

2004
Shrek 2 $569,828,400 $441,226,247
Spider-Man 2 $482,473,200 $373,585,825
The Passion of the Christ $478,832,800 $370,782,930

2003
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King $494,350,400 $377,845,905
Finding Nemo $451,826,500 $339,714,978
Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl $406,204,200 $305,413,918

1997
Titanic $1,087,949,000 $658,672,302
Men in Black $438,025,700 $250,690,539
The Lost World: Jurassic Park $400,277,800 $229,086,679

1984
Ghostbusters $567,259,500 $238,632,124
Beverly Hills Cop $538,543,100 $234,760,478
Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom $429,333,200 $179,870,271

1978
Grease $617,293,000 $188,755,690
National Lampoon's Animal House $480,319,900 $141,600,000
Superman $460,012,200 $134,218,018

1977
Star Wars $1,428,519,200 $460,998,007
Smokey and the Bandit $455,800,100 $126,737,428 1977
Close Encounters of the Third Kind $445,715,900 $132,088,635

1975
Jaws $1,027,192,100 $260,000,000
The Rocky Horror Picture Show $441,656,800 $112,892,319
One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest $430,556,600 $108,981,275

1973
The Exorcist $887,005,300 $232,906,145
The Sting Uni. $714,925,700 $156,000,000
American Graffiti $527,028,600 $115,000,000

1970
Love Story $561,385,100 $106,397,186
Airport $530,212,500 $100,489,151
M.A.S.H. $430,547,400 $81,600,000

1965
The Sound of Music $1,142,171,300 $158,671,368
Doctor Zhivago $995,566,400 $111,721,910
Thunderball $599,896,000 $63,595,658

1964
Mary Poppins $627,018,200 $102,272,727
Goldfinger $531,726,000 $51,081,062
My Fair Lady $481,200,000 $72,000,000

 

[Shifty]

On pace to be a.... Box Office Bomb ● Box Office Disappointment ● Box Office Success ● Blockbuster ● Not Yet Released

based on worldwide gross, budget, marketing costs and type of film (indie/blockbuster) Films will likely turn a profit/break even with global TV cable sales and Blu-ray sales.

Dark Shadows ● Battleship ● What to Expect When You're Expecting ● Piranha 3DD ● Lola Versus ● Rock of Ages ● That's My Boy ● Girl in Progress ● Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter ● Seeking a Friend for the End of the World ● People Like Us ● Savages ● The Watch ● Ruby Sparks ● Total Recall ● The Odd Life of Timothy Green

Bernie ● The Dictator ● Hysteria ● Chernobyl Diaries ● Snow White and the Huntsman ● Prometheus ● Tyler Perry's Madea's Witness Protection ● Katy Perry: Part of Me ● Safety Not Guaranteed ● Step Up Revolution ● Easy Money ● Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days ● Celeste and Jesse Forever ● The Campaign ● ParaNorman

MIB3 ● Moonrise Kingdom ● Brave ● Ted ● Beasts of the Southern Wild ● The Amazing Spider-Man ● The Bourne Legacy ● Hope Springs ● Sparkle ● The Expendables 2

The Avengers ● Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted ● Magic Mike ● Ted ● Ice Age: Continental Drift ● The Dark Knight Rises ●

Spoiler

Warner Bros.
Dark Shadows 5/11/12
Chernobyl Diaries 5/25/12
Rock of Ages 6/15/12
Magic Mike 6/29/12
The Dark Knight Rises 7/20/12
The Campaign 8/10/12
The Apparition 8/24/12

Buena Vista Pictures (Disney)
The Avengers 05/04/12
Brave 6/22/12
People Like Us 6/29/12
The Odd Life of Timothy Green 8/15/12

Universal
Battleship 5/18/12
Snow White and the Huntsman 6/1/12
Ted 6/29/12
Savages 7/6/12
The Bourne Legacy 8/10/12

20th Century Fox
Prometheus 6/8/12
Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter 6/22/12
Ice Age: Continental Drift 7/13/12
The Watch 7/27/12
Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days 8/3/12

Columbia Pictures / TriStar
MIB 3 5/25/12
That's My Boy 6/15/12
The Amazing Spider-Man 7/3/12
Total Recall 8/3/12
Hope Springs 8/10/12
Sparkle 8/17/12
Premium Rush 8/24/12

Paramount Pictures / Dreamworks Animation
The Dictator 5/16/12
Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted 6/8/12
Katy Perry: Part of Me 7/5/12

Weinstein / Dimension Films
Piranha 3DD 6/1/12
Easy Money 7/27/12
Lawless 8/29/12

Lionsgate
Girl in Progress 5/11/12
What to Expect When You're Expecting 5/18/12
Tyler Perry's Madea's Witness Protection 6/29/12
The Expendables 2 8/17/12
The Possession 8/31/12

Focus Features
Moonrise Kingdom 5/25/12
Seeking a Friend for the End of the World 6/22/12
ParaNorman 8/17/12
For a Good Time, Call... 8/31/12

Fox Searchlight
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel 5/4/12
Lola Versus 6/8/12
Beasts of the Southern Wild 6/27/12
Ruby Sparks 7/25/12

Sony Pictures Classics
Hysteria 5/18/12
To Rome with Love 6/22/12
Celeste and Jesse Forever 8/3/12

Summit Entertainment
Step Up Revolution 7/27/12

Open Road Films
Hit & Run 8/22/12

Film District
Safety Not Guaranteed 6/8/12

Millennium Entertainment
Bernie 5/2

 

[MadVillainy]

Im pretty sure Magic Mike can be considered a blockbuster compared to it's budget and The Campaign is doing fine i think, didnt it already make back it's budget and it's only been out 2 weeks right? And Madea (unfortunetly) did alright too