2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions) - Part 5

[Shifty]

Im pretty sure Magic Mike can be considered a blockbuster compared to it's budget and The Campaign is doing fine i think, didnt it already make back it's budget and it's only been out 2 weeks right?

Based on previous Ferrell films its going to be tight. It needs to take in $120 million to cover the budget (splitting revenue with exhibitors) and then $20-$25 million more to cover marketing/distribution. Ferrell films do poorly overseas and having an election film may not do well. We'll see it depends on how it does overseas.

Yes the ROI on Magice Mike should put it on the blockbuster status.

 

[Zant]

So how much does spiderman have to make for it to be on the blockbuster status.Not every comic book movie can make a billion

 

[Marvin]

So how much does spiderman have to make for it to be on the blockbuster status.Not every comic book movie can make a billion

More than both iron man films. I say this cause IronMan and RDJ are pretty much the hottest things in comic films so it's only fair that that is the measure.

 

[HighFivingMF]

More than the Iron Man movies worldwide? It's done that already actually.

 

[:eek:]

Top 20 worldwide

1. Marvel's The Avengers $1481,5 million
2. The Dark Knight Rises $899,8 million
3. Ice Age: Continental Drift $800,3 million
4. The Amazing Spider-Man $696,5 million
5. The Hunger Games $684,8 million
6. Men in Black 3 $621,6 million
7. Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted $565,1 million
8. Brave $408,4 million
9. Snow White and the Huntsman $392,6 million
10. The Intouchables $362 million
11. Ted $351,5 million
12. Titanic $343,6 million ($2185,4 million in total)
13. Dr. Seuss' The Lorax $335,4 million
14. Prometheus $330 million
15. Journey 2: The Mysterious Island $325,9 million
16. Battleship $302,8 million
17. Wrath of the Titans $302 million
18. John Carter $282,8 million
19. Dark Shadows $236,5 million
20. American Reunion $233,6 million

 

[Micromind]

Both TASM and TDKR have yet to open in China and I hope that they will add around 25 mil collection from there to their worldwide numbers.

 

[rashad]

25m? It will be more than that. China is a huge market.

TDKR still has China, Italy and several other smaller countries.

 

[Marvin]

I don't think TDKR will make a billion. Yes, they still have china but a lot of good that did them last time.

As for ASM, it technically makes it's studio as much if not more money that Ironman makes theirs. I'd say it should be considered a big time hit at this point. Domestically it's literally doing Star Trek numbers and absolutely crushing it world wide. Last time I checked Trek was one of the hottest rebooted properties on the market. I'd also hate to add but this is one film that actually makes money in china, especially in 3D...

 

[rashad]

I don't think TDKR will make a billion. Yes, they still have china but a lot of good that did them last time.

Last time? TDK was never released in China.

TDKR will be in the range of 930-940m worldwide after this weekend. Before it opens in China and Italy.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

I don't think TDKR will make a billion. Yes, they still have china but a lot of good that did them last time.

You haven't been paying attention to the numbers, have you? It's basically a lock.

TDK wasn't released in China back in '08. It's the reason why TDK's achievements were so impressive.

 

[Marvin]

Ah yes, I remember now. TDK numbers weren't on my radar cause they didn't exist. That nasty china sub plotting in the picture probably played a part in that. Was BB released in China? If not I wonder how excited that market could possibly be for a product they have no release history with. Moreover Nolans Bruce Wanye movies have consistently raised about 10 mill in Italy with each installment. I don't think Nolan did enough here to change that trend.

As for 940 by this weekend. I doubt it.

If it makes a billion it will surely crawl to it. And probably won't have it land in the top ten.
Curse that useless 3D surcharge.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

Ummm, TDKR was at 837 million a week ago. It's at +900 million as of today. So, 930-940m by the end of the weekend is very possible.

I don't see how that's crawling.

 

[Liam_H]

China's market like the rest of the overseas markets have expanded quite a bit since 2005. Inception brought in around $68 million in China, so Nolan's name is recognized by them.

 

[rashad]

Ah yes, I remember now. TDK numbers weren't on my radar cause they didn't exist. That nasty china sub plotting in the picture probably played a part in that. Was BB released in China? If not I wonder how excited that market could possibly be for a product they have no release history with. Moreover Nolans Bruce Wanye movies have consistently raised about 10 mill in Italy with each installment. I don't think Nolan did enough here to change that trend.

As for 940 by this weekend. I doubt it.

If it makes a billion it will surely crawl to it. And probably won't have it land in the top ten.
Curse that useless 3D surcharge.

- I never said 940m. I said in between 930-940m worldwide. Meaning it'll be somewhere in the middle. You do know that counts the money it's made overseas during the weekdays right?

- Boxofficemojo doesn't update the daily overseas numbers like they do the domestic dailies. Full updates don't come until Sunday which includes the gross over the weekend. ScreenDaily however, does report the mid-week numbers for foreign releases every Thursday.

 

[Marvin]

When Bo mojo say "The conclusion to Christopher Nolan's Batman trilogy added $21.4 million from 61 markets, which brought its total to $488.6 million." I assume they're not just talking about the thee day weekend. I assume it's standard that bo numbers take 50% less every week....

Never said it's crawling now, I said it will crawl to 1billion. Inception making about 70mill(though I'd say a live action remake to one of their more celebrated anime's is far more accessible to asian markets than the sequel to TDK). That would mean about 80's or so from China and Italy no? It'll be close I think.

Anything can happen I guess, Avengers made 85 in china(if i'm reading that right) whereas TF3 made like 150...both colorful 3D pictures mind you.

 

[Liam_H]

Once its released in China in less than a week the movie is not gonna crawl to $1 billion. TDK certainly crawled to that mark.

 

[chaseter]

ASM made Iron Man money? Um no.

Just because Iron Man made $100 million less, it's budget was also $100 million less. Not to mention...no 3D. Iron Man did quite a bit better than ASM.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

Marvin, I don't see how TDKR is crawling to a billion. By the rate it's going, the film will likely hit the billion barrier next week (probably on Thursday).

 

[Bruce Malone]

Yes the word "crawling" in relation to TDKR reaching a billion is quite off and frankly confusing. It took TDK i believe until february to reach its billion by comparison TDKR is moving at light speed.

 

[Marvin]

ASM made Iron Man money? Um no.

Just because Iron Man made $100 million less, it's budget was also $100 million less. Not to mention...no 3D. Iron Man did quite a bit better than ASM.

I assume you're referring to IM1. Yes it supposedly cost one hundred million dollars less but all things being equal ASM has generated one hundred million dollars more as of a while ago. 3D or no. Unless you want to be the one to tell james cameron all the inflated revenue he made on Avatar is make belief.

 

[Marvin]

Yes the word "crawling" in relation to TDKR reaching a billion is quite off and frankly confusing. It took TDK i believe until february to reach its billion by comparison TDKR is moving at light speed.

I'd say light speed would be something akin to what Avengers did. I'm simply adding avengers China(plus batmans typical italy) cume to what they've got already. Granted by next week they will be well over 900mill. I just don't see it flying by the figure.

Let's not forget the massive competition it will be facing over there.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

I'd say light speed would be something akin to what Avengers did. I'm simply adding avengers China(plus batmans typical italy) cume to what they've got already. Granted by next week they will be well over 900mill. I just don't see it flying by the figure.

Let's not forget the massive competition it will be facing over there.

TDKR wasn't on 3D and had to endure a national tragedy (bad publicity for 2-3 weeks). It might have not flown to a billion as fast as The Avengers but it'll still get there sometime next week. Thus, it's not crawling.

 

[chaseter]

I assume you're referring to IM1. Yes it supposedly cost one hundred million dollars less but all things being equal ASM has generated one hundred million dollars more as of a while ago. 3D or no. Unless you want to be the one to tell james cameron all the inflated revenue he made on Avatar is make belief.

You really don't know how this works.

If I made a movie for $400 million and it made $800 million...did it do better than ASM?

I also like how you said supposedly...like boxofficemojo.com is in some big conspiracy to question your 'facts'.

 

[Bruce Malone]

I'd say light speed would be something akin to what Avengers did. I'm simply adding avengers China(plus batmans typical italy) cume to what they've got already. Granted by next week they will be well over 900mill. I just don't see it flying by the figure.

Let's not forget the massive competition it will be facing over there.

I was making the comparison in relation to its predecessor though and not the avengers. With TDKR at over $900m now it's not nearly going to take anywhere close to another 6 months to reach a billion.

To be fair to the dark knight when it was released there were only 3 movies previously in history to ever reach a billion so it was a huge milestone. Before the dilution of that feat with the last few years with 3d inflated pics.

So TDKR reaching a "true" billion itself in 2d will also be very impressive.

 

[Marvin]

I was making the comparison in relation to its predecessor though and not the avengers. With TDKR at over $900m now it's not nearly going to take anywhere close to another 6 months to reach a billion.

To be fair to the dark knight when it was released there were only 3 movies previously in history to ever reach a billion so it was a huge milestone. Before the dilution of that feat with the last few years with 3d inflated pics.

So TDKR reaching a "true" billion itself in 2d will also be very impressive.

I get that, still I was comparing avengers to tdk and saying that would be more akin to light speed. TDKR I'd say would be like running to 1billion and not walking.