2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions) - Part 5

[rayc1971]

i got man of still with 250mill domestic 300mill overseas 550mill worldwide.its budget is 175mll so wb would be happy with those numbers.nolans name will draw the overseas crowd.

 

[Bruce Malone]

Well the demand for Man of steel is going to have to be higher than it was for TASM domestically for it to get to 250m, as TASM is probably somewhat under that figure without 3d inflation.

They need to market it quite well and ensure that it's a film with a good WOM.

 

[:eek:]

Top 20 worldwide

1. Marvel's The Avengers $1502,6 million
2. The Dark Knight Rises $1011 million
3. Ice Age: Continental Drift $828,5 million
4. The Amazing Spider-Man $735,1 million
5. The Hunger Games $685,1 million
6. Men in Black 3 $623,9 million
7. Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted $602,8 million
8. Brave $470 million
9. Snow White and the Huntsman $394,1 million
10. Ted $384,5 million
11. The Intouchables $363,7 million
12. Prometheus $351,3 million
13. Titanic $343,6 million ($2185,4 million in total)
14. Dr. Seuss' The Lorax $337,1 million
15. Journey 2: The Mysterious Island $325,9 million
16. Battleship $302,8 million
17. Wrath of the Titans $302 million
18. John Carter $282,8 million
19. Dark Shadows $236,5 million
20. American Reunion $234,7 million

 

[:eek:]

SUMMER BOX OFFICE DISAPPOINTS

September 4, 2012 by admin · Leave a Comment



Although many analysts had predicted record earnings at the summer box office, things didn’t quite end up that way. The season, which began in May and ended with the Labor Day holiday, closed down about 3 percent behind last year at about $4.3 billion. Attendance was down 4 percent to 533 million. Hollywood.com said that figure represented the lowest number of tickets sold in nearly 20 years. The downturn was particularly surprising given the large number of big hits during the summer, including The Dark Knight Rises, which took in $433 million domestically, and The Amazing Spider-Man which hauled away $260 million. And there was the astonishing success of the raunchy comedy Ted, which brought in $216 million.

 

[El Hombre Gato]

The demand for Man of Steel is going to have to be higher than it was for TASM domestically for it to get to 250m, as TASM is probably somewhat under that figure without 3d inflation.

ASM has sold nearly 32 million tickets. By comparison, Superman Returns sold 30 million tickets which equals to $245 million adjusted for 2012 prices. And, Warner Bros. was not satisfied by Superman Returns' box office. So, if Man of Steel makes ASM money, WB is gonna be pissed and probably never make another Superman movie ever again. MOS needs to at least reach $300 million, which would put it in Iron Man territory or else fans will be screwed.

 

[Micromind]

ASM has sold nearly 32 million tickets. By comparison, Superman Returns sold 30 million tickets which equals to $245 million adjusted for 2012 prices. And, Warner Bros. was not satisfied by Superman Returns' box office. So, if Man of Steel makes ASM money, WB is gonna be pissed and probably never make another Superman movie ever again. MOS needs to at least reach $300 million, which would put it in Iron Man territory or else fans will be screwed.

But, TASM was in 3D, so add additional 15 % to $245 and then it can be compared to TASM 's domestic collections of 259.8 mil.

$ 245 X 1.15 = 281.75

Add this to overseas collections (which was $ 200 mil.) , since the split was nearly 50 (domestic )/ 50 (foreign) for SR, just multiply the domestic collections figure by two and we get -

281.7 X 2 = 563.4 mil.

That looks good enough.

 

[El Hombre Gato]

TASM was in 3D

You missed my point. Bruce Malone was comparing MOS' potential success to ASM. But fact is, Superman Returns sold almost the same amount of tickets as ASM. The demand for both movies was, more or less, the same. So, in Warner Bros' eyes, anything near ASM would be a disappointment. They're looking for Iron Man level success. Anything beneath $300 million domestic will be seen as a failure.

 

[rashad]

Ice Age is a monster franchise. Especially overseas. That series really thrives in that market.

 

[Liam_H]

You missed my point. Bruce Malone was comparing MOS' potential success to ASM. But fact is, Superman Returns sold almost the same amount of tickets as ASM. The demand for both movies was, more or less, the same. So, in Warner Bros' eyes, anything near ASM would be a disappointment. They're looking for Iron Man level success. Anything beneath $300 million domestic will be seen as a failure.

Gonna have to disagree with this. Studios are measuring the success of a moviemonetarily and relative to others within its timeframe. If everything hinged on inflation then that means ASM was a failure because the adjusted numbers of the first 3 movies are far outperforming it. Its gonna finish around $760 million WW and #4 currently for 2012.

I believe WW are looking for Batman Begins type numbers for MOS, as long as its a good movie and well received. Any more money is gravy. Most important thing is that it restarts the franchise.

 

[KangConquers]

ASM has sold nearly 32 million tickets. By comparison, Superman Returns sold 30 million tickets which equals to $245 million adjusted for 2012 prices. And, Warner Bros. was not satisfied by Superman Returns' box office. So, if Man of Steel makes ASM money, WB is gonna be pissed and probably never make another Superman movie ever again. MOS needs to at least reach $300 million, which would put it in Iron Man territory or else fans will be screwed.

Amazing Spider-Man sold 2.5 times as many tickets in foreign markets as Superman Returns did. If Superman Returns had made 200 M domestic, and 400 M foreign (rough equivalents to what ASM did in 2006 money) we would've had a sequel.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

ASM has sold nearly 32 million tickets. By comparison, Superman Returns sold 30 million tickets which equals to $245 million adjusted for 2012 prices. And, Warner Bros. was not satisfied by Superman Returns' box office. So, if Man of Steel makes ASM money, WB is gonna be pissed and probably never make another Superman movie ever again. MOS needs to at least reach $300 million, which would put it in Iron Man territory or else fans will be screwed.

Not really, Kang said it best.

Amazing Spider-Man sold 2.5 times as many tickets in foreign markets as Superman Returns did. If Superman Returns had made 200 M domestic, and 400 M foreign (rough equivalents to what ASM did in 2006 money) we would've had a sequel.

If it makes ASM money, it would be make nearly $250 million more than SR.

Also, keep in mind that $500 million worldwide is probably still the benchmark that WB wants MoS to make.

 

[El Hombre Gato]

If everything hinged on inflation

I was actually comparing ticket sales, which you taught me how to find yesterday. 30 million tickets were sold for Superman Returns. If MOS sells 30 million tickets, it would equal $245 million domestically. I think WB would want a little more than that. And if I'm not mistaken, they're gonna convert MOS into 3D so they're trying to milk as much cash as possible. Superman has always been a major struggle for WB. Don't forget how much money they invested into Superman films that never saw the light of day. They haven't forgotten about that. So, I still believe that if MOS doesn't reach $300 million domestically, WB will consider it a disappointment.

Amazing Spider-Man sold 2.5 times as many tickets in foreign markets

The foreign market is expanding. MANY countries are now getting the fancy movie theaters we have had for over a decade. People around the world are actually excited about going to the movie theaters. That's why so many films are becoming a success overseas while flopping in North America. It's an advantage that MOS has that Superman Returns didn't. So, let's focus on us. We already know that any run of the mill blockbuster will succeed internationally.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

ASM numbers would still be fine for Superman and good enough to push a sequel. You want to downplay international numbers, but those international numbers are becoming more important, and you said yourself why. Don't downplay it just to try to prove a moot point.

By the way, those failed Superman films were factored into Superman Returns, not Man of Steel.

 

[rayc1971]

ASM has sold nearly 32 million tickets. By comparison, Superman Returns sold 30 million tickets which equals to $245 million adjusted for 2012 prices. And, Warner Bros. was not satisfied by Superman Returns' box office. So, if Man of Steel makes ASM money, WB is gonna be pissed and probably never make another Superman movie ever again. MOS needs to at least reach $300 million, which would put it in Iron Man territory or else fans will be screwed.

i disagree man of steel has a budget of 175mill if it does 250mil domstic wb will be happy.superman returns had a higher budget than man of steel so of course they were pissed.amazing spiderman has a 230mill budget and grossed 260mill domestic and sony is happy.the point s to get okay numbers for the reboots then make big bank on the sequel like batman begins did.

 

[Jon Hex]

I was actually comparing ticket sales, which you taught me how to find yesterday. 30 million tickets were sold for Superman Returns. If MOS sells 30 million tickets, it would equal $245 million domestically. I think WB would want a little more than that. And if I'm not mistaken, they're gonna convert MOS into 3D so they're trying to milk as much cash as possible. Superman has always been a major struggle for WB. Don't forget how much money they invested into Superman films that never saw the light of day. They haven't forgotten about that. So, I still believe that if MOS doesn't reach $300 million domestically, WB will consider it a disappointment.



The foreign market is expanding. MANY countries are now getting the fancy movie theaters we have had for over a decade. People around the world are actually excited about going to the movie theaters. That's why so many films are becoming a success overseas while flopping in North America. It's an advantage that MOS has that Superman Returns didn't. So, let's focus on us. We already know that any run of the mill blockbuster will succeed internationally.

You is wrong, Hombre.
You is so wrong, El Gato.
But you can believe what you like.

 

[marvelman2006]

Im not surprised at all by that report. I mean there were really alot of stinkers this summer and so many dead on arrivals and now your seeing alot of those bombs rushing to get out on bluray like battleship was released in may and out by end of summer on bluray to try and recoup some profit.

 

[Marvin]

I was actually comparing ticket sales, which you taught me how to find yesterday. 30 million tickets were sold for Superman Returns. If MOS sells 30 million tickets, it would equal $245 million domestically. I think WB would want a little more than that. And if I'm not mistaken, they're gonna convert MOS into 3D so they're trying to milk as much cash as possible. Superman has always been a major struggle for WB. Don't forget how much money they invested into Superman films that never saw the light of day. They haven't forgotten about that. So, I still believe that if MOS doesn't reach $300 million domestically, WB will consider it a disappointment.



The foreign market is expanding. MANY countries are now getting the fancy movie theaters we have had for over a decade. People around the world are actually excited about going to the movie theaters. That's why so many films are becoming a success overseas while flopping in North America. It's an advantage that MOS has that Superman Returns didn't. So, let's focus on us. We already know that any run of the mill blockbuster will succeed internationally.

A few things about this.

1. Studios care more about Revenue and or Gross profit more than "ticket sales." All that figure is really good for is fans to claim new movies aren't as good or well received as their beloved originals. If the ticket prices for, Man of steel were 500mill a ticket and it made 500mill(domestic) the studio would be happy and they'd have every right to be. It'd be no different if the ticket cost half a U.S. penny.and it made a decent amount. I'd watch any and probably every movie this summer twice if tickets costs half a penny(3D films would be a full penny of course). Point being Studios use ticket sales for a few things, one of which isn't to count their profits.

2. Inflation is thrown around a lot here. If Returns's profits were adjusted for inflation than it would have gross'd this much and that much. If the dollar was that much heavier back then, then just be sure to mind the fact that production costs were also a lot more heavy as well(especially given that they accumulated for inflation years in advance). Not that that really cancels out the "profit" figure, but in this conversation of studios looking at all angles...

3. Lastly a bold and dynamic Superman film will do great internationally. Unlike many of the heroes of the past decade, He's already got a name out there, all he needs is a good film...for once(yes I said it). People often put Returns on Superman and not the other way around. I challenge any big hero, the likes of Iron, spiderman even Batman to do something with such a bs film premise, Let alone an entire film without a tangible action beat. No, my friends, things will be different this time and I'm will be right here waiting to say I told you so.

 

[Tony Stark]

Ice Age is a monster franchise. Especially overseas. That series really thrives in that market.

which is ironic, because other than the first one, they pretty much sucked.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

3. Lastly a bold and dynamic Superman film will do great internationally. Unlike many of the heroes of the past decade, He's already got a name out there, all he needs is a good film...for once(yes I said it). People often put Returns on Superman and not the other way around. I challenge any big hero, the likes of Iron, spiderman even Batman to do something with such a bs film premise, Let alone an entire film without a tangible action beat. No, my friends, things will be different this time and I'm will be right here waiting to say I told you so.

Exactly. WB was so desperate to get a Superman movie released that they released a movie that underwhlemed in terms of spectacle, not to mention a few awkward story beats and making it a sequel to a movie released 30 years before. They thought, "Giving control of Batman to Christopher Nolan worked so well we might as well do the same for Superman, especially since we got that guy who made X-men into a huge hit." It backfired in the end.

 

[Shifty]

Prometheus has climbed into Box Office Success territory with late summer releases in Japan, China and Italy. Snow White is ever so close, maybe short $10 mil to break even after marketing/distribution. Sparkle didn't have legs and Lawless needs to do well overseas if it wants to break even. The Expendables 2 is weaker domestically than the first one, will depend on foreign market. Step Up Revolution was pushed into the black by the foreign market along with Chernobyl Diaries. The Bourne Legacy needs to scrounge up about $100 million more but it is winding down on the domestic box office.

On pace to be a.... Box Office Bomb ● Box Office Disappointment ● Box Office Success ● Blockbuster ● Not Yet Released

based on worldwide gross, budget, marketing costs and type of film (indie/blockbuster) Films will likely turn a profit/break even with global TV cable sales and Blu-ray sales.

Dark Shadows ● Battleship ● Lola Versus ● Rock of Ages ● That's My Boy ● Girl in Progress ● Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter ● Seeking a Friend for the End of the World ● People Like Us ● Savages ● The Watch ● Ruby Sparks ● Total Recall ● The Odd Life of Timothy Green ● Premium Rush ● The Apparition ● Lawless ●

Bernie ● The Dictator ● Hysteria ● Piranha 3DD ● What to Expect When You're Expecting ● Snow White and the Huntsman ● Tyler Perry's Madea's Witness Protection ● Katy Perry: Part of Me ● Safety Not Guaranteed ● Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days ● Celeste and Jesse Forever ● The Bourne Legacy ● The Campaign ● ParaNorman ● Sparkle ● Hit & Run ●

Chernobyl Diaries ● MIB3 ● Moonrise Kingdom ● Prometheus ● Brave ● Beasts of the Southern Wild ● To Rome with Love ● Step Up Revolution ● 2016 Obama's America ● Hope Springs ● The Expendables 2 ●

The Avengers ● Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted ● Magic Mike ● Ted ● The Amazing Spider-Man ● Ice Age: Continental Drift ● The Dark Knight Rises ●

Spoiler

Warner Bros.
Dark Shadows 5/11/12
Chernobyl Diaries 5/25/12
Rock of Ages 6/15/12
Magic Mike 6/29/12
The Dark Knight Rises 7/20/12
The Campaign 8/10/12
The Apparition 8/24/12

Buena Vista Pictures (Disney)
The Avengers 05/04/12
Brave 6/22/12
People Like Us 6/29/12
The Odd Life of Timothy Green 8/15/12

Universal
Battleship 5/18/12
Snow White and the Huntsman 6/1/12
Ted 6/29/12
Savages 7/6/12
The Bourne Legacy 8/10/12

20th Century Fox
Prometheus 6/8/12
Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter 6/22/12
Ice Age: Continental Drift 7/13/12
The Watch 7/27/12
Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days 8/3/12

Columbia Pictures / TriStar
MIB 3 5/25/12
That's My Boy 6/15/12
The Amazing Spider-Man 7/3/12
Total Recall 8/3/12
Hope Springs 8/10/12
Sparkle 8/17/12
Premium Rush 8/24/12

Paramount Pictures / Dreamworks Animation
The Dictator 5/16/12
Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted 6/8/12
Katy Perry: Part of Me 7/5/12

Weinstein / Dimension Films
Piranha 3DD 6/1/12
Lawless 8/29/12

Lionsgate
Girl in Progress 5/11/12
What to Expect When You're Expecting 5/18/12
Tyler Perry's Madea's Witness Protection 6/29/12
The Expendables 2 8/17/12
The Possession 8/31/12

Focus Features
Moonrise Kingdom 5/25/12
Seeking a Friend for the End of the World 6/22/12
ParaNorman 8/17/12

Fox Searchlight
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel 5/4/12
Lola Versus 6/8/12
Beasts of the Southern Wild 6/27/12
Ruby Sparks 7/25/12

Sony Pictures Classics
Hysteria 5/18/12
To Rome with Love 6/22/12
Celeste and Jesse Forever 8/3/12

Summit Entertainment
Step Up Revolution 7/27/12

Open Road Films
Hit & Run 8/22/12

Film District
Safety Not Guaranteed 6/8/12

Millennium Entertainment
Bernie 5/2/12

Rocky Mountain Pictures
2016 Obama's America 7/13/12

 

[Octoberist]

I thought that Safety Not Guaranteed made enough profit and past it's budget.

 

[Marvin]

Looking at this list, Paramount and Disney would have had such different summers had that deal not gone down. It also shows how reliant Paramount is on their Hasbro property(and mr. Bay). If they can get TMNT/GJjoe/TF/Heman working like a well oiled machine they will be back. It also shows how moving JOE this quarter hurt them.

As for Universal, they got aggressive this summer...
They need that Fast and Furious franchise to deliver.

WB needs to get more of their Superhero's working, next summer will be very significant for them post Batman.

Sony will die before giving spidey back to marvel

and Fox...

Lionsgate has hunger games and they love it.

Looking at these trends it's clear where the audience is going.

 

[Shifty]

I thought that Safety Not Guaranteed made enough profit and past it's budget.

For my formula they have $1.17 mil in the black before marketing and distribution costs. What would you estimate their marketing and distribution costs would be? Maybe the film broke even but you gotta think FilmDistrict spent at least $2 million on advertising alone.

Looking at this list, Paramount and Disney would have had such different summers had that deal not gone down. It also shows how reliant Paramount is on their Hasbro property(and mr. Bay). If they can get TMNT/GJjoe/TF/Heman working like a well oiled machine they will be back. It also shows how moving JOE this quarter hurt them.

As for Universal, they got aggressive this summer...
They need that Fast and Furious franchise to deliver.

WB needs to get more of their Superhero's working, next summer will be very significant for them post Batman.

Sony will die before giving spidey back to marvel

and Fox...

Lionsgate has hunger games and they love it.

Looking at these trends it's clear where the audience is going.

Paramount also lost future Dreamworks Animation films to Fox starting next year, that also hurts them. They're missing out on 3 films next year (one for summer) and two for 2014.

The Croods
Turbo
Mr. Peabody & Sherman
Me and My Shadow
How to Train Your Dragon 2

 

[El Hombre Gato]

You want to downplay international numbers

No, I don't. I said the foreign market has expanded. Films are now doing a lot better overseas. MOS will do better internationally than SR because it has the opportunity to do so. The domestic side, however, is VERY unpredictable. To me, that's the more interesting subject to discuss.

those failed Superman films were factored into Superman Returns, not Man of Steel.

And the failure of SR is being factored into MOS. If MOS flops, WB will never again make a Superman movie. They'll just look at Smallville and say, "well... I guess this is where the character belongs: television."

 

[Marvin]

Paramount also lost future Dreamworks Animation films to Fox starting next year, that also hurts them. They're missing out on 3 films next year (one for summer) and two for 2014.

Really?
Who's the one responsible for this bad business?
They've given their strong assets to their direct competition.