2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions) - Part 5

[MessiahDecoy123]

Skyfall

85/225

 

[Liam_H]

^Predicting similar results also.

 

[mclay18]

I'll say this much, this movie has the best chance of hitting that magical number with these stunning reviews and the lack of big action films. It's going to have to survive Twilight which is a lock to open with over 125mil. I'm thinking 150mil right now.

It'll drop some due to Twilight, but usually those have a huge opening weekend (usually 42-50% of the gross) and drop off quickly. Skyfall will hold well during Thanksgiving too.

 

[Bruce Malone]

Skyfall:

$80m

$205

Bond films are kinda like mini versions of harry potter in North America. Pretty front loaded openings but weaker legs. I'm pretty confident this bond film will break the $200m barrier though.

 

[Liam_H]

Lol, are you sure about that. Every bond movie since Brosnan besides QoS has had a 3x multiplier. Granted Skyfall is gonna open much higher which will diminish its legs but still.

 

[Bruce Malone]

Yeah you're probably right about that. I just remembered that Casino Royale didn't actually open with a huge weekend around 40 million or so so it had good legs.

QOS was the one that opened big and had shaky legs. I stand by my prediction though, i do hope Skyfall does great i think it deserves to make more than a M:I or Jason Bourne film does.

 

[hammerhedd11]

I can definitely see Skyfall making it to over 200 mil. It's bound to have pretty good legs based on the amazing reviews from basically everyone on earth and it doesn't really have any direct competition until The Hobbit. The holiday boost can't hurt either. Sure, Twilight will make a s**t-ton, but that's going after a wholly different crowd and it's never really been a vacuum on anything around it. Now that movie will drop like a rock though.

EDIT: Also, I don't really see the tepid reaction to QOS having much of an effect. I actually think the longer wait between installments will actually cause this to have the franchise's best opening. Unadjusted of course.

 

[:eek:]

Thursday (11/8) Update: Skyfall has raked in a whopping £57.05 million ($91.9 million) through Tuesday in the UK. That puts it ahead of The Dark Knight Rises ($88.2 million) and The Avengers ($83.4 million). The total is also higher than Casino Royal's £55.6 million ($88 million) haul.

 

[:eek:]

SATURDAY 3:45 AM, 5TH UPDATE: Stay tuned right here for my continuous updates all weekend with domestic box office numbers for MGM/Sony Pictures’ R-rated Skyfall iand DreamWorks Studios/Fox/Disney’s Lincoln, both of which received great reviews going into Friday. Total moviegoing http://www-deadline-com.vimg.net/wp...08/box_office_weekend_BADGE__120803200628.jpgthrough Sunday thanks to Skyfall could be $155+M, up +20% from last year. James Bond #23 is looking to open in North America with a $32M Friday and $80+M first weekend. But rival studios think Sony is low-balling – and that Friday’s domestic debut for James Bond #23 is around $33M (including $4.6M from Thursday’s IMAX screenings and Friday midnights) and the weekend around $88M. No matter who’s right: this is absolutely the biggest-grossing 007 movie ever in the string of films since 1962 – not adjusted for inflation or higher ticket prices or IMAX premiums – especially now that it’s received a coveted ‘A’ CinemaScore from audiences. “Skyfall delivers. Blows away $67.5M on Quantum Of Solace by a lot,” a Sony exec gushes to me. “Quantum was -4% from Friday on Saturday. Hopefully, Skyfall will use its ‘A’ Cinemascore to fuel Saturday and push it up even further.” Skyfall‘s 3,505-run wide release in U.S. and Canada set a new record for the global franchise. I’m still waiting for an updated number from Sony for overseas plays after it opened first overseas October 26th. As of Wednesday, the Sam Mendes-directed, John Logan-scripted, Daniel Craig-starring actioner had taken in $321M internationally But Hollywood now is betting that the worldwide total will be a gargantuan $500+M through Sunday - shaken, not stirred.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

It'll drop some due to Twilight, but usually those have a huge opening weekend (usually 42-50% of the gross) and drop off quickly. Skyfall will hold well during Thanksgiving too.

I know how the Twilight movies run at the boxoffice. And them dropping off a lot still doesn't change their huge totals no matter how much the net crowd hates them.

Why do people say the same thing that I already know regarding the Twilight movie's box office numbers? I already know that they are frontloaded and so are the Harry Potter movies. How does that change my opening weekend predictions and the fact that other films will be hurt by it to a certain degree. I'm looking forward to seeing Bond so my comment was not a dig at it.

Sorry for lashing out but I'm sick of the Twilight digs and double standards just because it is directed towards woman. The movies are huge at the box office and all the talk about frontloading doesn't change that fact despite what the interwebs believe.

Anyways, it looks like Bond is going to do better than my prediction.

 

[hammerhedd11]

Sorry for lashing out but I'm sick of the Twilight digs and double standards just because it is directed towards woman. The movies are huge at the box office and all the talk about frontloading doesn't change that fact despite what the interwebs believe.

Whoa, whoa, whoa. What? Talk about a straw man. No one was making this about gender at all. Calm down.
This is a discussion about box office and no one was personally attacking you, or women in general, but merely stating the fact that Twilight films always have massive drop-offs, like many other similar films. A few posts above that, people were discussing whether or not Bond movies had big drop-offs as well, so you are the only person bringing any notion of gender bias in here. This is about box office, so if you feel like it's a personal attack when people talk factually about how certain movies perform, you might best stay away.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

I know how the Twilight movies run at the boxoffice. And them dropping off a lot still doesn't change their huge totals no matter how much the net crowd hates them.

Why do people say the same thing that I already know regarding the Twilight movie's box office numbers? I already know that they are frontloaded and so are the Harry Potter movies. How does that change my opening weekend predictions and the fact that other films will be hurt by it to a certain degree. I'm looking forward to seeing Bond so my comment was not a dig at it.

Sorry for lashing out but I'm sick of the Twilight digs and double standards just because it is directed towards woman. The movies are huge at the box office and all the talk about frontloading doesn't change that fact despite what the interwebs believe.

Anyways, it looks like Bond is going to do better than my prediction.

You're overreacting.. No one made any digs at the movies here. Mclay just stated a fact that the Twlight movies drop after the first weekend.

 

[mclay18]

You're overreacting.. No one made any digs at the movies here. Mclay just stated a fact that the Twlight movies drop after the first weekend.

That's what I've said. Even with Twilight taking the glory for next weekend, Skyfall will drop but it shouldn't be too much. The Thanksgiving and weekday numbers will easily buoy Skyfall if WOM is as good as it has been worldwide.

Breaking Dawn 2 will do gangbusters, and it's critic-proof at this point. But it's going to plummet after its first week, once all the fans have seen it multiple times and get tired.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Eh, I'm only overreacting because of the constant negative comments. And because I know about the frontloading and don't see how that fact changes what I said.

BTW, Bond 23 is very good, I hope it continues to do very well this weekend and next.

 

[Liam_H]

Skyfall seem on track for $90+ million OW. Surpassed my expectations.

 

[Bruce Malone]

I just read $80 million on imdb actually. That's what i called it as. I do know the theater i went to on friday was packed and i'm assuming most of that due to skyfall.

I wonder what its legs will be though? I'm not sure WOM is going to be as good as the amazing reviews its been getting? But it should still head past $200m if the ow predictions hold.

 

[matrix_ghost]

ccording to TOLDJA Sony is lowballing the figure.
Rival studios are saying that Skyfall is set to open around 88 million so 90 million could be a real possibility.
What's even more impressive is that SKyfall pull off 500 million WW by monday.
Meaning that by the end of next week it'll outgross both CR and QoS.
Very impresssive and it exceeds expectations.

Even with Twilight looming , BOnd's audience is very different. MOstly adults whereas Twilights has the tweens and women.
I think Skyfall will do just fine. I'm still not sure if can hit 900 million WW but 800 million definately seems like a real possibility

 

[Liam_H]

Early estimates have Saturday around $35-37 million. So it'll need at least $25 million to hit the $90 million mark. Don't see it dropping that much considering Sunday will be boosted by Veterans Day.

 

[matrix_ghost]

http://www.deadline.com/category/movies/

Rival studios thought Sony was low-balling with its $75M pre-release estimate. And on Saturday morning, the studio begged me to lower my sources’ $88M weekend estimate. But the magic number is $87.8M ($30.8M Friday, $33.8M Saturday, and an estimated $20.3M Sunday). Add in Thursday’s IMAX screenings and the cume is $90M.

Internationally, I’m still waiting for a 10-day update from Sony after it opened overseas October 26th. Sources tell me that, going into this Friday, the Sam Mendes-directed, John Logan-scripted, Daniel Craig-starring actioner had taken in $346.8M internationally But Hollywood now is betting that the worldwide total will be a gargantuan $500+M through Sunday - which can only be described as shaken, not stirred.

 

[:eek:]

Skyfall:

Total Lifetime Grosses
Domestic:$90,000,000 17.4%
+Foreign:$428,600,000 82.6%
= Worldwide:$518,600,000

 

[:eek:]

Skyfall is now the 4th biggest film of all time in the UK with £72.9 million in the bank (and the biggest non-3D film), behind Avatar (£94.0 million), Toy Story 3 (£73.8 million), and Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (£73.1 million). By tomorrow it will be #2 of all time

 

[Doctor Jones]

Wow... well this did a lot better than I thought it would. Rightfully so because this film deserves it.

 

[mclay18]

Eh, I'm only overreacting because of the constant negative comments. And because I know about the frontloading and don't see how that fact changes what I said.

I wasn't being negative towards Breaking Dawn. It'll end up with at least $300M domestic and $750-800M worldwide -- a big windfall for Lionsgate and Summit Entertainment.

I can actually see Skyfall dropping 40-50% to $45M-$50M in its second weekend. It'll be fine counterprogramming against the younger female crowd for Twilight. There's room for both.

 

[:eek:]

According to Box Office Mojo it's not impossible Skyfall will end with over $900 million worldwide:

Rolling in its domestic earnings, Skyfall has already earned $518.6 million worldwide, and it will pass Casino Royale's record $599 million by the end of the week. Using some very modest projections for the existing markets and the upcoming ones (China, Japan and Australia), it's likely that Skyfall will ultimately earn over $900 million worldwide.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

YES! t:

And with the good word of mouth (It earned an A cinema score), it's going to be pretty big here. I think it definitely goes over $200 million now.