2013: The Re-Up (box office predictions) - Part 1

[MrMaooz]

So The Mortal Instruments is the latest Twilight knock-off to tank. 14mil after five days is terrible. Good luck on that sequel filming in September guys. The movie is going to have to make a ton overseas to make up for it's domestic performance. Unless it has amazing legs after it's 9mil opening weekend.

I have nothing against Lily Collins but I wish Hollywood would stop trying so hard to make her happen, she isn't Jennifer Lawrence or Kristen Stewart. She's a cute girl but she's bland and her buzz is 100% media manufactured. I'm not sure about her acting skills because I've only seen her in nothing roles but she isn't exactly getting demanding or respectable roles. That cannot be argued. If she happens fine but shlock like The Mortal Instruments isn't going to turn her into a big deal. I love her eyebrows though.

You're Next got good reviews but it looked like the most bland horror movie of all enternity so nobody showed up. Good thing the budget was tiny.

The Butler and Miller's had great drops. The Butler is going to need more fantastic holds to make it to 100mil. It has a shot but it's going to be tough. It is already a hit though. I'm not interested in either of the films but it's nice seeing films with black leads like 42 and The Butler doing well. Even Fruitvale Station did well in relation to it's tiny budget. It didn't break out but it did okay enough. BTW the last 20 minutes are absolutely heartbreaking and had me almost crying.

The World's End did well for what it was and I'm satisfied because it is a good film.

I don't understand how Kick-Ass 2 dropped 68% as it only opened with 13.3mil? Even R.I.P.D had a better drop than that. I can understand a 60% drop because of The World's End and sequel frontloading but 68% when it opened with nothing? That's surprising. I think it's doing better overseas which is the only good news for the film at this point. Boring weekend overall and I think it will continue to be boring until Insidious 2 is released.

She almost has a unibrow.

 

[redhawk23]

Yeah supposedly its on track to beat out Skyfall for the UK record, bonkers.

 

[Liam_H]

Is that prediction from a legitimate source because for that happen it must mean the entire country is going to see it, not its core audience.

 

[Quasimod0]

Lilly collins does have beautiful eyebrows, I must say.

 

[:eek:]

Top 20 worldwide

1. Iron Man 3 $1213,2 million
2. Despicable Me 2 $806,1 million
3. Fast & Furious 6 $786,7 million
4. Monsters University $686,6 million
5. Man of Steel $649,8 million
6. The Croods $583,3 million
7. World War Z $526,1 million
8. Oz The Great and Powerful $491,9 million
9. Star Trek Into Darkness $458,7 million
10. Pacific Rim $397,3 million
11. G.I. Joe: Retaliation $371,9 million
12. The Hangover Part III $351 million
13. The Wolverine $350,9 million
14. The Great Gatsby $331 million
15. A Good Day to Die Hard $304,7 million
16. Now You See Me $293 million
17. Oblivion $286,2 million
18. Epic $253,4 million
19. After Earth $243,6 million
20. The Smurfs 2 $235,3 million

 

[MrMaooz]

Wow...at WWZ.

 

[Liam_H]

All without China too.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

Is that prediction from a legitimate source because for that happen it must mean the entire country is going to see it, not its core audience.

Skyfall made $161 million in UK.
Mortal Instruments opened at $1.7 million in UK.

There's no way in hell that's true.

 

[Liam_H]

Oh I thought he was referring to the One Direction concert movie, of course no was in hell for MI.

 

[:eek:]

Domestically 2013 and 2012 are really neck and neck, with 2013 now actually ahead of last year. Total gross as of August 26:

2013: $7477,7 million
2012: $7468,4 million

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

Oh I thought he was referring to the One Direction concert movie, of course no was in hell for MI.

I think I'm the one who made the mistake. The post order is confusing.

 

[:eek:]

Summer 2013 Rundown: Key Stats and Final Analysis for the Biggest Summer Ever

on August 30, 2013 by Shawn Robbins
School is in session again, the heat of the season has peaked (for most of us), grills are firing up one last time, and the earliest hints of awards buzz for fall's movies are becoming audible. All of this can mean only one thing: summer's over, folks.
And what a summer it was. When the final numbers come in next Tuesday, BoxOffice projects the industry's keynote season will have hauled a record $4.64 billion domestically (topping Summer 2011's previous $4.34 billion record). Regardless of this weekend's results, most studios have plenty of reasons to be patting themselves on the back: this summer yielded a strong 10.3 percent increase over Summer 2012. That's the biggest summer-to-summer market improvement since since 2007 bested 2006 by 11.8 percent.
Year-to-date, 2013 has finally overtaken last year's pace with a projected $7.54 billion tally through Saturday, August 31. That puts this year on par with 2010's $7.55 billion gross through eight months. We'll be watching the numbers closely this weekend to see if 2013 can manage to jump ahead and set a new year-to-date record.
Although August's market softened from summer's earlier months, it will still bring in a projected $882 million by Saturday's end--up more than 9 percent from August 2012, but the second lowest August gross since 2006. That shouldn't be too concerning, however, as audiences clearly had their fill of blockbusters in May, June, and July. So much so that even a majorly successful summer was still prone to a few box office disappointments (and outright bombs) here and there. To be fair, however, some were victims of poor timing just as much as they were victims of bad business decision-making. We'll spare you the dead-horse beating and not name any names.
Below, you'll find a few of Summer 2013's key statistics, as well as the season's top earners in the global, domestic, and domestic opening weekend categories. Watch BoxOffice in the days ahead for our preview of what's to come as the year enters its third act.
Key Summer 2013 All-Time Stats:
- Highest grossing May ($1.143 billion)
- Highest May attendance since 2004 (estimated, 4th best ever)
- Highest Memorial Weekend market gross ($314.3 million)
- 2nd highest 4-day frame gross (only behind December 25-28, 2009's $331.1 million)
- Highest grossing June ever ($1.245 billion)
- 3rd ever highest June attendance (estimated, behind 2004 and 2002)
- 2nd highest grossing July ever ($1.37 billion, behind 2011's $1.398 billion)
- Highest projected summer attendance since 2008 (estimated)
Global Top 10:
1. Iron Man 3 ($1.214 billion)
2. Despicable Me 2 ($811.97 million)
3. Fast & Furious 6 ($787.2m)
4. Monsters University ($700m)
5. Man of Steel* ($649.8m)
6. World War Z ($526.7m)
7. Star Trek Into Darkness ($458.7m)
8. Pacific Rim ($397.4m)
9. The Wolverine ($353.7m)
10. The Hangover Part III ($350.5m)
Domestic Top 10:
1. Iron Man 3 ($408.8 million)
2. Despicable Me 2 ($351.7m)
3. Man of Steel ($290.3m)
4. Monsters University ($262.2m)
5. Fast & Furious 6 ($238.6m)
6. Star Trek Into Darkness ($227.4m)
7. World War Z ($199m)
8. The Heat ($156.6m)
9. The Great Gatsby ($144.8m)
10. The Conjuring($132.3m)
Domestic Top 10 Opening Weekends:
1. Iron Man 3 ($174.2 million)
2. Man of Steel* ($116.6m)
3. Fast & Furious 6 ($97.4m)
4. Despicable Me 2** ($83.5m)
5. Monsters University ($82.4m)
6. Star Trek Into Darkness*** ($70.2m)
7. World War Z ($66.4m)
8. The Wolverine ($53.1m)
9. The Great Gatsby ($50.1m)
10. The Conjuring ($41.9m)
Bottom 5 Opening Weekends from Widely Released Major Studio Films:
1. Tyler Perry Presents Peeples ($4.6 million)
2. You're Next ($7.0m)3. The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones** ($9.3m)
4. R.I.P.D. ($12.7m)
5. Kick-Ass 2 ($13.3m)
Please note: All grosses reported as of Thursday, August 29, 2013

 

[Micromind]

It looks like Pacific Rim with a budget of 190 mil. will be profitable as it now has collected 397.4 mil $.

It was a great success in China, as it made 100 mil over there.

 

[:eek:]

It looks like Pacific Rim with a budget of 190 mil. will be profitable as it now has collected 397.4 mil $.

It was a great success in China, as it made 100 mil over there.

Problem is that Hollywood only get something like 20% of the money movies makes in China.

 

[Iceman]

I'd like to see this rundown for 2015. That will blow 2013 away completely.

 

[:eek:]

Top 20 worldwide

1. Iron Man 3 $1214,6 million
2. Despicable Me 2 $823,2 million
3. Fast & Furious 6 $787,5 million
4. Monsters University $715,2 million
5. Man of Steel $657,8 million
6. The Croods $583,4 million
7. World War Z $532,3 million
8. Oz The Great and Powerful $493,3 million
9. Star Trek Into Darkness $462,5 million
10. Pacific Rim $404,8 million
11. G.I. Joe: Retaliation $371,9 million
12. The Wolverine $358,7 million
13. The Hangover Part III $351 million
14. The Great Gatsby $331 million
15. Now You See Me $308,4 million
16. A Good Day to Die Hard $304,7 million
17. Oblivion $286,2 million
18. The Smurfs 2 $255,6 million
19. Epic $255,5 million
20. The Conjuring $243,7 million

 

[Heretic]

Instructions Not Included, a virtually unknown, limited release Spanish language film is number FOUR at the box office. It is in only 348 theaters, and made an astounding $7,846,426! By comparison, Getaway also debuted this weekend, on 2,130 screens...and made $4,503,892 despite tons of advertising and surely a much larger budget.

Oh, and Lee Daniels' The Butler...which despite being number 1 for three weeks in a row (and it is almost at 3 times its budget at the box office) is still being called a colossal bomb by right wingers.

The success of both should be a wake up call to Hollywood that there are huge markets out there that are being severely undeserved, while the young white male audience is being served to the point where they are picking and choosing, resulting in several big budget box office failures. (for the record, I'm a fairly young white male, right in the typical target market)

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Problem is that Hollywood only get something like 20% of the money movies makes in China.

Yep Pacific Rim is still far from being profitable. The studios still see the domestic market as the most important one because they get to keep more of the grosses. Pacific Rim doing 80 to 100mil less than it should have domestically is a huge issue.

 

[Dr. Evil]

A little surprised that The Butler beat a documentary about One Direction. One would think that with that group's rabid fanbase of teen girls, it would be #1. It was close though.

 

[:eek:]

Top 20 worldwide

1. Iron Man 3 $1214,7 million
2. Despicable Me 2 $832,8 million
3. Fast & Furious 6 $788 million
4. Monsters University $724,4 million
5. Man of Steel $660,9 million
6. The Croods $585,2 million
7. World War Z $536,4 million
8. Oz The Great and Powerful $493,3 million
9. Star Trek Into Darkness $465,4 million
10. Pacific Rim $406,7 million
11. G.I. Joe: Retaliation $371,9 million
12. The Wolverine $361,7 million
13. The Hangover Part III $351 million
14. The Great Gatsby $346,1 million
15. Now You See Me $317,4 million
16. A Good Day to Die Hard $304,7 million
17. Oblivion $286,2 million
18. The Smurfs 2 $267,4 million
19. The Conjuring $259,7 million
20. Epic $257,8 million

 

[:eek:]

"Catching Fire" To Earn Nearly A Billion?

By Garth Franklin Saturday September 14th 2013 02:58PM
Early predictions for Lionsgate's "The Hunger Games: Catching Fire" have it grossing a whopping $950 million in worldwide box office.
Wall Street analyst Alan Gould of Evercore is predicting a $375 million domestic and $575 million overseas haul for the film. That would make it the second highest grossing film of the year, behind only "Iron Man 3" and ahead of "Despicable Me 2".
In comparison the first "Hunger Games" film made $408 million domestic and $283 million overseas. The analysts projects almost $400 million of profit for Lionsgate from 'Catching Fire'.
Source: Variety

 

[Liam_H]

Over 100% increase overseas, I guess they are expecting another type of Twilight explosion.

 

[:eek:]

Top 20 worldwide

1. Iron Man 3 $1214,7 million
2. Despicable Me 2 $840,4 million
3. Fast & Furious 6 $788,7 million
4. Monsters University $730,9 million
5. Man of Steel $662,8 million
6. The Croods $585,2 million
7. World War Z $536,9 million
8. Oz The Great and Powerful $493,3 million
9. Star Trek Into Darkness $465,4 million
10. Pacific Rim $407 million
11. G.I. Joe: Retaliation $371,9 million
12. The Wolverine $366,6 million
13. The Hangover Part III $351 million
14. The Great Gatsby $348,8 million
15. Now You See Me $320,9 million
16. A Good Day to Die Hard $304,7 million
17. The Smurfs 2 $288,9 million
18. Oblivion $286,2 million
19. The Conjuring $271,3 million
20. Epic $257,8 million

 

[:eek:]

Top 20 worldwide

1. Iron Man 3 $1214,7 million
2. Despicable Me 2 $854,1 million
3. Fast & Furious 6 $788,7 million
4. Monsters University $736,2 million
5. Man of Steel $662,8 million
6. The Croods $585,2 million
7. World War Z $539,3 million
8. Oz The Great and Powerful $493,3 million
9. Star Trek Into Darkness $467 million
10. Pacific Rim $407,3 million
11. G.I. Joe: Retaliation $371,9 million
12. The Wolverine $370,5 million
13. The Hangover Part III $351 million
14. The Great Gatsby $348,8 million
15. Now You See Me $322,2 million
16. The Smurfs 2 $308 million
17. A Good Day to Die Hard $304,7 million
18. Oblivion $286,2 million
19. The Conjuring $285,9 million
20. Epic $259,5 million

 

[:eek:]

Top 20 worldwide

1. Iron Man 3 $1214,7 million
2. Despicable Me 2 $863,5 million
3. Fast & Furious 6 $788,7 million
4. Monsters University $736,5 million
5. Man of Steel $662,8 million
6. The Croods $585,2 million
7. World War Z $539,5 million
8. Oz The Great and Powerful $493,3 million
9. Star Trek Into Darkness $467 million
10. Pacific Rim $407,4 million
11. The Wolverine $373 million
12. G.I. Joe: Retaliation $371,9 million
13. The Hangover Part III $351 million
14. The Great Gatsby $348,8 million
15. Now You See Me $322,2 million
16. The Smurfs 2 $321 million
17. A Good Day to Die Hard $304,7 million
18. The Conjuring $297,4 million
19. Oblivion $286,2 million
20. Elysium $263,6 million