2013: The Re-Up (box office predictions)

[jacobed]

Yikes Pacific Rim bombed

 

[MrMaooz]

Yeah but i'm talking about Disney's in house-studio. The Marvel films are all pg-13 as well.

Also it's not a sure thing the new star wars will even be pg-13? To my knowledge the only previous star wars film to get a pg-13 rating was Revenge of the Sith and that film was pretty dark for a star wars pic, the rest were all pg.

I think it's definitely going to be PG-13.

 

[Tony Stark]

Well the first three films, there was no PG-13 rating. The original Red Dawn was the first film to receive the dubious PG-13 rating, and it was in reaction to films like Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom, where they show a guy ripping someone's heart from their chest, that created a public backlash, and Spielberg and others suggested to the MPAA for the new rating.

I've no doubt that Episode VII will be PG-13. Abrams will want to target an older audience, and may also bring more adult themes to the film (i.e. bedroom scenes and other sexual content), as he did in Star Trek.

Star Trek 2009, really is a template for what he might do with a Star Wars film (minus the lens flare, lol). Trek 2009 very much plays like a Star Wars film, with the non-stop action and amped up pacing. Even from Into Darkness, the ship chase on Kronos was very much out of the Star Wars mold.

 

[MrMaooz]

Well the first three films, there was no PG-13 rating. The original Red Dawn was the first film to receive the dubious PG-13 rating, and it was in reaction to films like Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom, where they show a guy ripping someone's heart from their chest, that created a public backlash, and Spielberg and others suggested to the MPAA for the new rating.

I've no doubt that Episode VII will be PG-13. Abrams will want to target an older audience, and may also bring more adult themes to the film (i.e. bedroom scenes and other sexual content), as he did in Star Trek.

Star Trek 2009, really is a template for what he might do with a Star Wars film (minus the lens flare, lol). Trek 2009 very much plays like a Star Wars film, with the non-stop action and amped up pacing. Even from Into Darkness, the ship chase on Kronos was very much out of the Star Wars mold.

ST was definately his demo reel for Star Wars lol.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Yikes Pacific Rim bombed

The opening isn't good for a film with such a giant budget. It's going to need a sub 50% drop next weekend.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

The opening isn't good for a film with such a giant budget. It's going to need a sub 50% drop next weekend.

All the Pacific Rim fanboys will be watching the daily drops closely hoping for a 4x mulitplier and break out box office in Asia.

That's the only way the movie will possibly break even.

I doubt the studio is even considering a sequel. They're just thinking "I hope we don't lose too much money".

 

[Liam_H]

I highly doubt 4x multiplier is in play. NYSM is coming close to pulling that off, I see around 3x for PR at best.

 

[terry78]

So what is the top performer this summer aside from Iron Man 3....Despicable Me 2?

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

So what is the top performer this summer aside from Iron Man 3....Despicable Me 2?

Yes

Iron Man 3 got past 400 m and DM2 is looking at 350 m. Most other movies won't come close to 300 m.

Worldwide the top 3:

IM3
FF6
MOS

I'm not sure if DM2 will make the top 2.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

All the Pacific Rim fanboys will be watching the daily drops closely hoping for a 4x mulitplier and break out box office in Asia.

That's the only way the movie will possibly break even.

I doubt the studio is even considering a sequel. They're just thinking "I hope we don't lose too much money".

I don't see signs of an exceptionally leggy movie in the break down of it's weekend box office numbers. It would have to have a great Monday and Tuesday and Wednesday for me to change my mind. And it's Friday has to survive getting hit by 4 new movies. And then barring some amazing wom that can with stand anything Wolverine is going to kill it. If this movie somehow had Elysium's 115mil budget it would be in pretty good shape. I think it was done for as little money as the could do it though so it's cost wasn't the problem like it was with White House Down and The Lone Ranger.

 

[terry78]

So this week you got two Ryan Reynolds movie, Red 2 which will nab the older crowd, and one more?

 

[Liam_H]

If this movie somehow had Elysium's 115mil budget it would be in pretty good shape. I think it was done for as little money as the could do it though so it's cost wasn't the problem like it was with White House Down and The Lone Ranger.

The budget for PR was on the screen, not like Del Toro wasted it. The real question could be whether WB/Legendary should've financed it in the first place. Original property, geekyish concept, no real stars attached etc.

Considering so many movies flop or disappoint from over bloated budgets that need a huge haul to break even WB/Legendary can rightly be criticized for green lighting it in the first place. They aren't like Disney that can write off something like Lone Ranger or John Carter.

Sure the argument for something new original is always made but there are other projects that don't require such big budgets, thus less risk and more chance of success.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

The budget for PR was on the screen, not like Del Toro wasted it. The real question could be whether WB/Legendary should've financed it in the first place. Original property, geekyish concept, no real stars attached etc.

Considering so many movies flop or disappoint from over bloated budgets that need a huge haul to break even WB/Legendary can rightly be criticized for green lighting it in the first place. They aren't like Disney that can write off something like Lone Ranger or John Carter.

Sure the argument for something new original is always made but there are other projects that don't require such big budgets, thus less risk and more chance of success.

I don't disagree with anything in your post. I'll just add that I think if Warners had put up even half the budget that the movie would have had at least two well known actors in it and they would have been far more interested in not just marketing it to fanboys.

 

[Liam_H]

I don't disagree with anything in your post. I'll just add that I think if Warners had put up even half the budget that the movie would have had at least two well known actors in it and they would have been far more interested in not just marketing it to fanboys.

Would you have preferred Tom Cruise over Elba? I guess that would've helped its appeal but business aspect aside I prefer Elba.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Would you have preferred Tom Cruise over Elba? I guess that would've helped its appeal but business aspect aside I prefer Elba.

We are in a box office thread, talking about box office. I'm strictly speaking from that angle. Asking me what I would have preferred when it comes to Pacific Rim is just opening up a whole can of worms that I don't feel like opening in this thread.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

I wonder how much WWZ would've made without Brad Pitt.

It's hard to say since zombies are popular anyway these days.

 

[Liam_H]

The guy did go out and sell the hell out of that movie. For him I'm glad its a success.

 

[terry78]

Pitt was fully aware of what the media was saying regarding how there were problems with the flick so he wanted to remedy it.

 

[Shifty]

Bombs
The Internship
After Earth
White House Down
The Lone Ranger
Pacific Rim

So far the bombs are mainly not based off pre-existing properties, which just means we'll see more sequels, reboots and adaptations of existing properties. But if it gets us closer to a Gargolyes film maybe it isn't so bad.

 

[Liam_H]

Which highlights how great Now You See Me has been doing.

 

[Shifty]

I wonder how much WWZ would've made without Brad Pitt.

It's hard to say since zombies are popular anyway these days.

I think the days of "movie stars" bringing people to the theatres are over. Sure having Pitt in the film helped sell it to some people.
Now I feel most people go because its something they want to see (trailer looked great, based on their favourite character/book, sequel to film they liked).

After Earth and The Lone Ranger both had "big movie stars" with Smith and Depp but their presence didn't bring the films success at all, even their smaller films over the past few years haven't done well either. Meanwhile they slide back into their old franchises (MIB, Pirates) and they could get #1 at the box office.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

I think the days of "movie stars" bringing people to the theatres are over. Sure having Pitt in the film helped sell it to some people.
Now I feel most people go because its something they want to see (trailer looked great, based on their favourite character/book, sequel to film they liked).

After Earth and The Lone Ranger both had "big movie stars" with Smith and Depp but their presence didn't bring the films success at all, even their smaller films over the past few years haven't done well either. Meanwhile they slide back into their old franchises (MIB, Pirates) and they could get #1 at the box office.

Yeah this is a good point.

Audiences are too savvy these days to support a movie simply because a single person is in it. Lone Ranger and After Earth taught are perfect examples since Depp and Smith are the biggest stars out there.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Which highlights how great Now You See Me has been doing.

"Now You see Me" have a low price tag is what dictates that it is doing well. If any of these other movies did that business, they'd be getting killed.

 

[Liam_H]

I'm talking about its legs.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

The good news is that Now You See Me and This is the End have both done very well.