All Things DCEU News, Discussion, and Speculation - Part 4

[divan]

I mean, the cultural importance of Wonder Woman and Black Panther doesn't come solely from the fact these are movies led by a woman and a black man (respectively). Timing is primordial here.

 

[Rorschach2012]

I never said it would be as big of a deal, just that it could be a factor that increases interest beyond the usual. Add that to the potential of it being a genuinely good movie with a badass female co-lead in Mera and the novelty of the underwater aspect, and I think there are several ways for this film to succeed beyond the pessimistic expectations of some.

That’s fair. It’s going to be an uphill battle still though. The ties to the DCEU and Momoa’s performance in JL aren’t doing this movie any favors.

They’re doing everything right for this movie from what I’ve seen so far. Manta and Orm as villains? Hell yeah.

Honestly I thought Momoa and Heard were both preeetty bad in Justice League, and the whole movie hinges on those two. I hope they up their game.

 

[misslane38]

That’s fair. It’s going to be an uphill battle still though. The ties to the DCEU and Momoa’s performance in JL aren’t doing this movie any favors.

They’re doing everything right for this movie from what I’ve seen so far. Manta and Orm as villains? Hell yeah.

Honestly I thought Momoa and Heard were both preeetty bad in Justice League, and the whole movie hinges on those two. I hope they up their game.

Something being an uphill battle -- something being an underdog -- does not foreclose the possibility of success. There's no reason to believe Aquaman is destined to fail. There's no reason to suggest it unequivocally cannot and will never be a hit with critics and audiences. That's the sort of doomsday cynicism I cannot abide.

 

[Rorschach2012]

Something being an uphill battle -- something being an underdog -- does not foreclose the possibility of success. There's no reason to believe Aquaman is destined to fail. There's no reason to suggest it unequivocally cannot and will never be a hit with critics and audiences. That's the sort of doomsday cynicism I cannot abide.

I’m with you on that

 

[FunkMiller]

Something being an uphill battle -- something being an underdog -- does not foreclose the possibility of success. There's no reason to believe Aquaman is destined to fail. There's no reason to suggest it unequivocally cannot and will never be a hit with critics and audiences. That's the sort of doomsday cynicism I cannot abide.

And I agree with this too. My predictions for Aquaman may be based on what I believe to be a fairly sound argument that it won't be much of a success, because of the dumpster fire it directly follows. It is intrinsically connected to Justice League's failure, whatever distancing measures Wan may take. But I stand ready and willing to be proved wrong.

 

[MbJ]

The film has a big uphill battle with the fact that the franchise has now garnered a bad reputation, and aside from the underwater aspect, it doesn't have a big hook that's gonna draw a lot of positive attention like Wonder Woman or Black Panther.

That said, it doesn't need to be as big as Wonder Woman or Black Panther to be a hit. Unlike the Justice League film and Batman v. Superman, this was made for under 200 million dollars, so it's not gonna need to hit huge, record-breaking numbers to be considered a success. I think that is what's gonna happen. We will probably get a good, but not spectacular opening weekend, and if word of mouth is positive, it'll have strong legs like we saw with WW and BP.

Anything in the 700 million range would be a big success for this movie.

 

[misslane38]

And I agree with this too. My predictions for Aquaman may be based on what I believe to be a fairly sound argument that it won't be much of a success, because of the dumpster fire it directly follows. It is intrinsically connected to Justice League's failure, whatever distancing measures Wan may take. But I stand ready and willing to be proved wrong.

I question the solidity of your argument, but since we won't know until we know, we've reached a dead end.

The film has a big uphill battle with the fact that the franchise has now garnered a bad reputation, and aside from the underwater aspect, it doesn't have a big hook that's gonna draw a lot of positive attention like Wonder Woman or Black Panther.

That said, it doesn't need to be as big as Wonder Woman or Black Panther to be a hit. Unlike the Justice League film and Batman v. Superman, this was made for under 200 million dollars, so it's not gonna need to hit huge, record-breaking numbers to be considered a success. I think that is what's gonna happen. We will probably get a good, but not spectacular opening weekend, and if word of mouth is positive, it'll have strong legs like we saw with WW and BP.

Anything in the 700 million range would be a big success for this movie.

This I agree with, especially your second paragraph. This discussion began with the speculation that Aquaman cannot be a hit. What a "hit" is wasn't defined, but one hopes the bar isn't set as high as WW or BP. To me, Aquaman can be a hit just by making a sizable profit, and I think that such a thing is possible if it has good buzz. JL didn't, and it didn't have it even before the movie came out, and part of the reason for that was all of the reshoot drama and the controversial Zack Snyder attachment.

I think any or most of the damage Aquaman would suffer because of JL would be mitigated by good reviews and buzz. Based on Wan's previous success and what seem to be somewhat credible rumors about a recent screening going well, it's possible this film has what it takes to succeed. Sure, it probably won't be like BP or WW, but even most MCU films can't claim that.

I just think it's too early to declare that Aquaman is headed toward being a flop.

 

[BaelaTargaryen]

DC Entertainment President Diane Nelson Taking Leave of Absence (Exclusive)

 

[MbJ]

This I agree with, especially your second paragraph. This discussion began with the speculation that Aquaman cannot be a hit. What a "hit" is wasn't defined, but one hopes the bar isn't set as high as WW or BP. To me, Aquaman can be a hit just by making a sizable profit, and I think that such a thing is possible if it has good buzz. JL didn't, and it didn't have it even before the movie came out, and part of the reason for that was all of the reshoot drama and the controversial Zack Snyder attachment.

I think any or most of the damage Aquaman would suffer because of JL would be mitigated by good reviews and buzz. Based on Wan's previous success and what seem to be somewhat credible rumors about a recent screening going well, it's possible this film has what it takes to succeed. Sure, it probably won't be like BP or WW, but even most MCU films can't claim that.

I just think it's too early to declare that Aquaman is headed toward being a flop.

Agreed. I think the fact that we're seeing some movies with absolutely spectacular, record-shattering grosses kinda skews things and causes people to forget that a good number of these movies make nowhere near those numbers and are still considered successes. Before Black Panther, the highest grossing first solo movie (I'm not counting Spider-Man because he's had 6 movies now) in the MCU was Doctor Strange, which did around 660 million. Which is very good and more than enough to qualify a movie of that budget being a hit, but it's also nowhere near what BP did; a billion dollar gross like that is very atypical for the first installment of a solo superhero franchise

A modest hit is still a hit, provided you don't blow the bank making it. And so far it looks like that's not what happened with Aquaman's budget.

 

[MbJ]

Posted this in the JL thread, but Dany Garcia (Henry Cavill's manager and one of the producers on Shazam) put this up on Twitter.

I am hoping this is an indication those rumors of Henry cameoing in Shazam are legit.

 

[jmc]

Something being an uphill battle -- something being an underdog -- does not foreclose the possibility of success. There's no reason to believe Aquaman is destined to fail. There's no reason to suggest it unequivocally cannot and will never be a hit with critics and audiences. That's the sort of doomsday cynicism I cannot abide.

The biggest problem it has is there's no momentum for it. The comparisons with things like Wonder Woman and Black Panther overlook those films had momentum going for them. BP coming off the back off a well received introduction in CW, and Wonder Woman coming off the back of her iconography. Aquaman is neither the cultural icon that WW is nor is coming off a well received movie that BP was. There's no build up to this movie.

 

[misslane38]

The biggest problem it has is there's no momentum for it. The comparisons with things like Wonder Woman and Black Panther overlook those films had momentum going for them. BP coming off the back off a well received introduction in CW, and Wonder Woman coming off the back of her iconography. Aquaman is neither the cultural icon that WW is nor is coming off a well received movie that BP was. There's no build up to this movie.

No one is saying it will perform like WW or BP, though. It doesn't need to in order to be a hit.

 

[2kt09]

No one is saying it will perform like WW or BP, though. It doesn't need to in order to be a hit.

Depends on the budget. They should be saving quite a lot on marketing thus far. Definitely more-so than previous entries.

 

[jmc]

No one is saying it will perform like WW or BP, though. It doesn't need to in order to be a hit.

I'm not saying it has to, but the other two also had momentum which helped them get the numbers that they got. Aquaman hasn't got much going for it in terms of momentum, if anything it's virtually starting from zero.

 

[Jekecy]

When we're several months from release without a second of footage being consumed by audiences, momentum is hardly a fruitful topic at this point.

We'll see the hype temperature once the teaser hits. The first impression will ultimately shape the initial trajectory of this film.

 

[writer0327]

If Aquaman is 90% on RT its a major success regardless of the box office.

DCEU doesn't need box office hits more so than they need critical hits.

 

[jmc]

When we're several months from release without a second of footage being consumed by audiences, momentum is hardly a fruitful topic at this point.

We'll see the hype temperature once the teaser hits. The first impression will ultimately shape the initial trajectory of this film.

I think the topic is completely reasonable considering JL has zero momentum going into it also, and that was on the back of Wonder Woman. Aquaman is more or less on his own. Maybe things change as we get closer to release but as of now the biggest problem this film has to overcome I feel is indifference.

 

[MbJ]

I definitely get that, but it does seem too early to star panicking. The movie isn't out for nearly nine months, and it's also an insanely crowded year full of big movies. Shooting their wad early on with a huge marketing blitz isn't really gonna accomplish much of anything.

Particularly when we saw Justice League also start the promo stuff very early on, and it didn't help one bit.

 

[misslane38]

I'm not saying it has to, but the other two also had momentum which helped them get the numbers that they got. Aquaman hasn't got much going for it in terms of momentum, if anything it's virtually starting from zero.

Maybe Doctor Strange or Ant-man are fair analogues. DS had spectacle going for it, and it was a hit by reasonable standards without prior movies or cultural significance.

 

[jmc]

I definitely get that, but it does seem too early to star panicking. The movie isn't out for nearly nine months, and it's also an insanely crowded year full of big movies. Shooting their wad early on with a huge marketing blitz isn't really gonna accomplish much of anything.

Particularly when we saw Justice League also start the promo stuff very early on, and it didn't help one bit.

The other thing to consider is that WB might not have a good strategy in place for the Aquaman marketing right now. 3 years ago they would have been betting on JL to give them a leg up with marketing for AQM, now they are in a very precarious position where the wrong marketing campaign could hurt the film. So, yeah, they've kinda got to start from scratch. Wonder Woman was treated like that but they had the advantage of it being the most iconic female superhero. I'm not quite sure myself how I would go about selling this film because the character has had trouble being taken seriously and I don't know if JL did much to fix that.

Maybe Doctor Strange or Ant-man are fair analogues. DS had spectacle going for it, and it was a hit by reasonable standards without prior movies or cultural significance.

It might be fairer but at the same time both had the Marvel brand going for it. Aquaman's biggest problem right now is it's attached to a brand that people have started to become disinterested in. News the other day of potential test screenings have barely rated a mention anywhere.

 

[misslane38]

It might be fairer but at the same time both had the Marvel brand going for it. Aquaman's biggest problem right now is it's attached to a brand that people have started to become disinterested in. News the other day of potential test screenings have barely rated a mention anywhere.

The DCEU brand following BvS didn't seem to stop even a critically panned Suicide Squad from making more money than the MCU's Doctor Strange and just $25 million dollars less than Guardians of the Galaxy. SS achieved this without the Chinese market, too.

The positive test screenings are irrelevant. No one that matters when it comes to the bottom line of a film's success cares one bit about that information, and the lack of buzz about it has more to do with the thin nature of the rumors/reports than lack of enthusiasm for the film. If something more official and substantial were to come out, there could be a different result. More importantly, if the trailer comes out at SDCC and the response is tepid, then I think there may be some concerning signs.

But positive buzz from screenings closer to release, as we saw with Wonder Woman, can bring the positive attention a DCEU film needs at just the right time for it to make a difference.

 

[jmc]

I think what Wonder Woman always had in her favour was her iconic status, I think people were always going to give her movie the benefit of the doubt due to her status in comics and pop culture. Aquaman I kinda feel has to be a better movie than WW in order to really shift people, to the point where it has to beat BP, and Avengers for best superhero film of the year. I know that's a lot to ask but I kinda think it needs to happen. At the very least the underwater stuff needs to look amazing. In JL it looked average at best.

 

[The Guard]

The other thing to consider is that WB might not have a good strategy in place for the Aquaman marketing right now. 3 years ago they would have been betting on JL to give them a leg up with marketing for AQM, now they are in a very precarious position where the wrong marketing campaign could hurt the film.

Yes, but you can say that about any film. Aquaman is not alone in this respect. Most films don't have the luxury of an already-successful franchise to bolster them, and expecting that is not good business. A film has to stand on its own merits.

So, yeah, they've kinda got to start from scratch. Wonder Woman was treated like that but they had the advantage of it being the most iconic female superhero. I'm not quite sure myself how I would go about selling this film because the character has had trouble being taken seriously and I don't know if JL did much to fix that.

Aquaman may not be the most iconic male superhero, but he is certainly still iconic in pop culture. He's been considered something of a joke for a long time. They didn't do much to fix that?

He certainly wasn't goofy and silly in JUSTICE LEAGUE, as people tend to perceive him. The film presented him as an absolute badass. They've got an absolute badass playing him. They've done everything they reasonably can to change perceptions about Aquaman before a solo film, and a solid solo film will only further that approach.

It might be fairer but at the same time both had the Marvel brand going for it. Aquaman's biggest problem right now is it's attached to a brand that people have started to become disinterested in. News the other day of potential test screenings have barely rated a mention anywhere.

It's Aquaman. A brand that people already don't have the attachment to the character that they have with say, Batman. So in a way, the brand already HAD that problem. But being an underdog isn't always a bad thing.

People weren't ready to give Wonder Woman the benefit of the doubt, in fact there was a ton of negative speculation leading up to the film's actual critical response. People responded to a well made movie, which they will likely do if Aquaman is one.

 

[Flash525]

I mean, the cultural importance of Wonder Woman and Black Panther doesn't come solely from the fact these are movies led by a woman and a black man (respectively).

There is more truth here than I suspect many people are willing to admit. Whilst both Wonder Woman and Black Panther were okay films, neither were exactly iconic or spectacular. It seems, they've only been labelled as such because of the importance's you've highlighted.

 

[Boy Scout]

So because you don’t personally think the films are spectacular, you’re going to attribute their success to the fact that they star minorities? Nonsense.