Aquaman Box Office Thread

What will Aquaman's worldwide box office be?

  • Over $900M

  • $800-900M

  • $700-800M

  • $600-700M

  • $500-600M

  • Under $500M

Results are only viewable after voting.
About Japan:

JAPAN BOX OFFICE

Mary Poppins Returns shockingly disappoints in what should have been one of its strongest markets (musicals often reach around $40 million or even higher depending on WOM). In a reversal of expectations and trends, Aquaman may actually have a chance to beat it in gross now (just has to do better than the average superhero film). A DC film outgrossing a Disney musical in Japan of all places would be one of the craziest things to happen given the market.
Click to expand...

Mary Poppins Returns debuts in a disappointing fifth place, selling 139,000 admissions over the weekend frame on 654 screens, and 205,337 admissions since opening on Friday. This opening is well below the average for a musical, and after taking the Disney brand into consideration, it makes the debut even worse. Even if it manages great legs (will be tough since it'll be a huge target for screen/showtime cuts), it likely won't reach ¥1.5 billion ($15 million).
Click to expand...
 
When I first saw the MPR trailer and the part with the cartoon animation, I immediately compared it to what this generation is used to. And not just with movies but video games as well. I'm not talking about how good it was made but more about the content. And I couldn't help but feel that MPR felt really dated. I just couldn't imagine kids rushing to watch a movie about a nanny with all that "cuteness". So it doesn't surprise me that Japan isn't into it either.

I hope AQM can pass CW, but I doubt it. It's done extraordinary regardless
 
Marz69 said:
When I first saw the MPR trailer and the part with the cartoon animation, I immediately compared it to what this generation is used to. And not just with movies but video games as well. I'm not talking about how good it was made but more about the content. And I couldn't help but feel that MPR felt really dated. I just couldn't imagine kids rushing to watch a movie about a nanny with all that "cuteness". So it doesn't surprise me that Japan isn't into it either.

I hope AQM can pass CW, but I doubt it. It's done extraordinary regardless
Click to expand...
Look at Bohemian Rhapsody. Awesome. Japan is the #2 global market. Talk about multipliers - it opened with $4M in Japan on Nov 11. It's already past a 20x, though that's more common in Japan.

Realistically, I think Aquaman is tops $15-20M there. But strange things do occasionally happen there. Avatar was big and some of the visuals and undersea monsters may play very well in Japan.

Outside of Spidey when he first launched, I think if there was one comic book character that could do gangbusters there it would be Aquaman. I think WB has focused on those monsters and the undersea visuals in their promo there - wise move for that market. WB has had $100M+ films there before for the Harry Potter franchise. The first Fantastic Beasts made almost $65M there and the second is near $60M - so WB may have gotten promo with that film for Aquaman as well, not sure how that works in Japan.

Looking forward to those numbers. Anything above $5M opening would be really, really good since Japan is a leggier box office. It could do anywhere from $25-50M if it opens with $5M in Japan. If it opens with $7M, we may be looking at over $50M as I'm reviewing other similar films. Just have to keep an eye on the legs.
 
So it basically tied DP2 yesterday and will forge ahead today. Good show.

Japan yawning at MPR is just the final knife twist. Japan has a weakness for Disney musicals and at one point I saw people talking about it earning $40-50 million there. As it is, its WW total isn’t even going to match Solo, the movie Disney buried last spring to put Poppins at the holidays. I have a hard time believing Solo wouldn’t have done better in MPR’s slot.
 
Solo sucked...it would have crashed hard unless the extra time was used to change the movie in major ways. Time of year wasnt going to help it much because the audience rejected it for what it was not when it came out. (though it was way too close to TLJ which also didnt help)

That said MPR majorly underperformed...and even the hardcore defenders cant deny it anymore. It didnt flop mind you, but it never caught on anywhere outside of the UK. The US it did ok and the rest of the world mostly ignored it. Disney took some calcualted risks in this year of films and outside of Marvel properties I got to think they are scratching their heads over the reception of many of them.

Meanwhile Aquaman just keeps on making people happy :)
 
Update
hA3V0xm.png


LotR: RoTK by Sunday, Transformers the following week.


If Japan opens over 5 million this weekend, then we can maybe consider Civil War, but yeah otherwise 1.14-1.145 sounds about right.
 
Corpse’s weekend forecast for Japan:

Weekend Forecast (02/09-10)
01 (---) ¥240,000,000 ($2.2 million), 0, ¥335,000,000 ($3.0 million), Aquaman (Warner Bros.) NEW
02 (---) ¥225,000,000 ($2.1 million), 0, ¥315,000,000 ($2.9 million), City Hunter (Aniplex) NEW
03 (01) ¥211,000,000 ($1.9 million), -37%, ¥925,000,000 ($8.5 million), The Seven Conferences (Toho) WK2
04 (02) ¥205,000,000 ($1.9 million), -35%, ¥3,150,000,000 ($28.8 million), Masquerade Hotel (Toho) WK4
05 (---) ¥200,000,000 ($1.8 million), 0, ¥200,000,000 ($1.8 million), Code Geass: Lelouch of the Rebellion (Showgate) NEW
06 (---) ¥150,000,000 ($1.4 million), 0, ¥185,000,000 ($1.7 million), First Man (Toho-Towa) NEW
07 (04) ¥137,000,000 ($1.2 million), -31%, ¥11,325,000,000 ($101.5 million), Bohemian Rhapsody (Fox) WK14
08 (05) ¥115,000,000 ($1.1 million), -38%, ¥550,000,000 ($5.0 million), Mary Poppins Returns (Disney) WK2
09 (06) ¥112,000,000 ($1.0 million), -39%, ¥1,040,000,000 ($9.5 million), 12 Suicidal Teens (Warner Bros.) WK3
10 (03) ¥110,000,000 ($1.0 million), -45%, ¥575,000,000 ($5.2 million), Snow Flowers (Warner Bros.) WK2

Very interesting Top 10 this weekend. The #1 spot could realistically go to any of the Top 5 films. This is also a long three-day weekend (national holiday on Monday), so the inflated Sunday could paint an entirely different picture from Saturday's results.

>Aquaman is... probably the favorite to win the weekend, though it did come in second place on Friday. Its weekend pre-sales are also just 11% higher than Justice League's, and 16% lower than Wonder Woman's. Both comparisons suggest a debut around ¥225 million. I'm expecting a slightly higher number than that due to a slight increase in ticket sales, but I doubt it reaches ¥250 million.
 
Micromind said:
Looks like Aquaman's China run is over at $ 298.33 mil, so close to $ 300 mil, oh well.

Click to expand...
I thought it’d miss by a bit with the pace it was going at. The number is obviously still amazing!
 
kendalag said:
Update
hA3V0xm.png


LotR: RoTK by Sunday, Transformers the following week.


If Japan opens over 5 million this weekend, then we can maybe consider Civil War, but yeah otherwise 1.14-1.145 sounds about right.
Click to expand...
The company it’s keeping these days is crazy. :D:
 
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