B/O Forecast: Pirates 3 Vs. Spider-Man 3

[L0ngsh0t]

*cough* Matrix 2 *cough*

- "bridge" film
- better box office than first, serious drop off in third
- third promised more action and delivered, but too close= people were not interested.

----------------------------

Also anyone thinking POTC3 will get the same or above box office as POTC2 is seriously kidding themselves. POTC2 summer had rare competition, especially from the 'blockbuster' genre.... this summer is PACKED with so many blockbusters that their all going to hurt themselves probably.

Even in the action and comedy categories:

I can almost guarantee Evan Almighty will whoop Talledega and every comedy last summer.

While Die Hard makes Miami Vice it's *****, "now you see this is how you make a REAL action movie! Yippie ki yay mother fcker!"

I'm pretty sure there isn't a sain soul on the planet that thinks in their heart that AWE will gross a bill

In saying that, Even Almighty doesn't look anything special, and has a almost direct to video processed feel to it to me, I would almost garuntee Talladega Nights the superior of the 2

And while Miami Vice was boring and only so cause I was expecting more action than I got, when I actually watched on reveiwing knowing what exactly I was getting I thought it was a very very good movie, I could hardly garuntee anything in terms of Die Har being the better film, I think it could be sure, but there is no garuntee

Also Evan Almighty comes 2 weeks after AWE, and Die Hard

what comes 2, and 3 weeks after Spiderman 3? Sherk and Pirates

if your going with that logic Pirates has the rougher schedule


Also I don't think this first weekend of summer is the greatest weekend ether, Memorial Day, and 4th of July have to be, cause of A the extra weekend day, and B kids are out of school, which they are May 4th

lets look at some of the other first weekends of summer in the past couple of years

MI-3=50 million (2006)
Van Helsing=50 million (2004)
Kingdom of Heaven=Bust (although good movie; 2005)

as opposed to Memorial days of past

2006-X3=we all are familiar with what happend
2005-Madagascar/Longest Yard=both gross more than 60 million apiece
2004-Sherk 2=Sherk 2

 

[Darth Elektra]

AWE has a really good schedule which should allow it to be #1 for atleast 2 if not 3 or 4 weeks.

 

[Tempest19]

Um dude- did you even read my full post or decide to put words into my mouth that were never there to begin with? Because ur whole post fckin' pisses me off because it is clearly EVIDENT that you did not read ANYTHING that I typed and rushed to your own fcking ******ed conclusions-

When did I saw AWE would only make a bill? I DIDN'T... wow, look at that- I said that it would be hard pressed to make as much as POTC2 did. Because it has TOUGHER competition. Now that isn't saying it's not going to make a bill is it? The answer, oh "I will skim and then try to come off as smart" poster is that it does not mean that at all. It means that I believe that it will make less than POTC2, but it will still make a lot of money regardless.

And also, the Matrix logic works- in a sense- made more money than the first, had a CLIFFHANGER, came out relatively close after, and had a drop in third film. Now I should be clear in saying that I did not mean to imply that POTC3 will drop that low. But it will drop- those stating "bridge" and "cliffhanger" isn't worth a damn- because not all people give a rats ass if a story is concluded or not.


Also, your implying that I said SM3 will kick POTC3's ass- which I obviously didn't do either and any sane and intelligent person that took the time to read my post can tell you that.

What I did say is that the three will run NECK-TO-NECK... how is that saying there is a sure fire winner and loser? Oh that's right- it's not.

Also, I didn't state those movies are going to be the top contenders against Pirates- did I? No you FCKIN inferred that, jesus christ your post pissed me off due to the amount of things you put in there that I NEVER said.

FACT: This summer has alot MORE competition and HARDER competiton than last Summer. Anyone who argues that point is dumber than- than a potatoe.

That is all that I said with competition.

I used those examples to show that you've got movies this summer that in competition with movies of last summer would probably come out on top...

Evan Almighty has the power of Bruce Almighty behind it, rumors of good-great special effects (although why did Universal have to spend that much? Lol- if that rumor is still going around), and Steve Carrell coming off of a recent nominated film in the COMEDY category. Not to mention that lots of people love his comedies- he's the new "funny man."

Die Hard as you said looks kick ass, and it's a strong franchise. Box Office wise, I would say that it does have the strongest chance of knocking Miami Vice down... and if not Die Hard, then Oceans Thirteen.

NOTE FOR THE IDIOTS: I did not say these films will be tougher competiton against POTC3. That would be dumb. What I did say that these films will more than likely beat their 'counter parts' of last summer- Tallladega vs. Evan Almighty & Die Hard or Oceans 13 vs. Miami Vice.

And these aren't even the BLOCKBUSTERS I'm talking about! That should show you how jam packed this summer is with stronger competition in all categories than there were last summer...

And yes, you did get my tone right- because I FCKIN HATE IT when people put things in my mouth and imply things that I NEVER said.

And before jumping to your 'conclusions' in your next post- which I'm more than sure you'll do- why don't you carefully re-read everything so that you don't come off as an arrogant prick who likes to put words into other people's posts.

Oh and by the way, what's "Sherk II"? LOL, I never heard of that[/i[ movie before...

 

[britrogue]

I voted Spiderman out of personal preference, but I have a nasty suspicion Pirates will win

 

[Hunter Rider]

I still think we all need to see a POTC3 trailer before making so many bold statements

 

[Warhammer]

There is NO doubt that I'll see all of these great films, but if anything is grossing more than POTC3 and SM3, it'll probably be Potter or even worse, Shrek.

Either way, we have so many blockbusters opening this summer, either cinema revenue will boom or all the competition will kill many movies' chances of hitting HUGE.

 

[PirateLord89]

I still think we all need to see a POTC3 trailer before making so many bold statements

We'll make sure u all watch the trailer on monday with Dancing With The Stars or u can watch it in HD on Yahoo Movies that same night at 10 PM...i read the trailer description and believe me whan i tell u it is epic as hell!!...From a trailer standpoint...it looks like it will blow spidey out of the water!t:

 

[Tempest19]

Ha.... I think different... WAY different... but we all have our biasm pirate.

And your biasm shows boldly in how stupid some of your previous posts have been- "down means down" ha, that's beyond stupid!

Revenge of the Sith, Phantom Menace, Attack of the Clones <- that's Star Wars' prequel box office chart... to the best to my knowledge.

And "up means up"? Ha! Matrix proves that wrong ten fold.

 

[PirateLord89]

^awww.....u don't have 2 be upset...just b/c spidey's franchise is falling while the Pirates is obviously rising dosen't mean u gotta get upset...

 

[Erzengel]

Actually "PirateLord", Tempest is a fan of the first Pirates movie.

 

[PirateLord89]

^so...

 

[Erzengel]

So...... if you actually read some of his posts, he proves even as a fan he can remain unbiased enough to point out it's faults.

 

[PirateLord89]

im not saying he shouldn't...i was trying 2 prove a point and he decided 2 call my posts "stupid"...thats why i came at him...but im over it...t:

 

[DACrowe]

I said what I said about Pirates 2 is most people are saying now, "I liked it, but it wasn't as good as the first or how people made it out to be," that's the general buzz since the DVD release. I don't expect something as big as a Matrix backlash. But I will not be surprised if there is a drop in b/o from the third. In fact, I garuntee it.

As for Spidey 3 dropping. I don't know. I think it stands a good chance to make at least as much as the second. The second was a better movie than the first, and people know that. The third looks even better and has more villains (unfortunately a good thing for general audiences) and Venom is a big-deal (albeit GG and Doc Ock always had me more excited). So that prospect will play a major role for this film.

And to go back to my original point it is all about timing. Spidey 3 has no competition before it and no competition after it for two weeks. Just like Spider-Man 1 (2 came out on July fourth weekend and had more competition, should be pointed out). Pirates 3 is coming out after the first big summer movie, but by four weeks so it will be relatively meaningless. However, it is sandwiched between Shrek the Third which has the exact same core audience as Pirates 3 (children and teens) and the next week Ocean's 13 comes out. That is aimed at teens, and both will take a sizeable chunk of b/o. The week after that is FF2, Die Hard and whatever else.

Stiff competition. And again I expect the hype for Pirates 3 to be less than 2 as the sequel need was already satisfied last year for Pirates, and while the desire to see a third is there, I think most would agree the second did not live up to the first. That decreases hype for the third, which has not even had marketing yet (a major reason for this I think is because Verbenski is rushing to finish it as the whole movie was incredibly rushed through production, without a full script, and now post).

Again, we'll see though.

 

[Erzengel]

I think a lot of people are overlooking Shrek 3. Yes it will probably be #2 the week Pirates release but the way people post here, it's like Shrek will be lucky do that.

I think the quality of Shrek 3 will determine how well Pirates does it's first week.

 

[DorkyFresh]

i'd have to give it to Pirates for the simple fact that girls drool over Depp and Bloom more than they do Maguire and Franco. i think girls will always be the deciding factor when it comes to movies...

...just look at Titanic.

 

[PirateLord89]

I think a lot of people are overlooking Shrek 3. Yes it will probably be #2 the week Pirates release but the way people post here, it's like Shrek will be lucky do that.

I think the quality of Shrek 3 will determine how well Pirates does it's first week.

Shrek 3 wont do business like shrek 2...

 

[Erzengel]

And your guess is based on?

 

[Cyrusbales]

well shrek 2 is crap!

 

[PirateLord89]

Just a feeling...

 

[PirateLord89]

well shrek 2 is crap!

it was aight...

 

[Erzengel]

It was the #1 grossing movie the year it was released.

 

[PirateLord89]

just cause a movie is #1 dont mean it's good...

 

[DorkyFresh]

And your guess is based on?

where did your avatar come from? that's a badass model!!!

and i have to agree with PirateLord, Shrek 3 doesn't stand a chance this year.

 

[Cyrusbales]

BO does not equal quality