BvS Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction - Part 1

[kendalag]

Furious 7 did 68 million opening DAY in China ... It beat the OD record of Transformers 4 by like 30+ million ... and will probably make 250+ overall in China and probably finish at 1.3 billion worldwide (it's already over 800 million today). Comparison ... Man of Steel did 63 million total in China 2 years ago. I think that there's no way to know just what this can do because that market is exploding in a way almost unimaginable.

WB will internally likely look at this as a massive disappointment if it misses 1 billion given expansion in Chinese and other world markets.

 

[Marvin]

Furious 7 did 68 million opening DAY in China ... It beat the OD record of Transformers 4 by like 30+ million ... and will probably make 250+ overall in China and probably finish at 1.3 billion worldwide (it's already over 800 million today). Comparison ... Man of Steel did 63 million total in China 2 years ago. I think that there's no way to know just what this can do because that market is exploding in a way almost unimaginable.

WB will internally likely look at this as a massive disappointment if it misses 1 billion given expansion in Chinese and other world markets.

If BvS performs in china they way most of these other (cbms) big movies do, it will be huge. Like Furious and alot of these other movies, being a sequel to something established helps. That and flat out appealing to their cinematic sensibilities ala Prim, TF and possibly MadMax.

That's all still pretty impressive for Furious 7, and all that without asian pandering save for the directors ethnicity. 800 mill at this rate is pretty good regardless of how fast and wide the roll out was, for enough films last year could barely crawl to that figure.

To think the film was supposed to come out last year. It would have been the box office darling had it done so, especially given how most everything performed. Then again, it probably would have been a very different film all things considered.

 

[Jonwo]

Batman v Superman like Fast 7 does have the advantage that April is pretty empty and it's launching in a plum Easter slot. I'm surprised they've not moved Wonder Woman yet to Spring 2017 rather than keep it in the June 23rd slot against DM3 and TS4

 

[Noctis]

Batman v Superman like Fast 7 does have the advantage that April is pretty empty and it's launching in a plum Easter slot. I'm surprised they've not moved Wonder Woman yet to Spring 2017 rather than keep it in the June 23rd slot against DM3 and TS4

if gal gadots wonder woman proves to be surprisingly popular with the general audience (like quicksilver in DOFP) then they might have more faith in the movie and consider moving it to that date

 

[Noctis]

btw does anyone know why some films open in alot countries (like furious 7 opened in 64 countries) while other films open in fewer countries (like man of steel opening in just 24 countries) does the studio decide that or someone else? and how many countries do you think a major film like BvS will open in?

 

[fake]

btw does anyone know why some films open in alot countries (like furious 7 opened in 64 countries) while other films open in fewer countries (like man of steel opening in just 24 countries) does the studio decide that or someone else? and how many countries do you think a major film like BvS will open in?

Studios decide it based on when they think a movie would be best to open in a country (apart from China where SARFT decides the date).

BvS will, and i say this with roughly 90% certainty, open day and date everywhere. This will be mainly thanks to most of the world celebrating Easter week which is a holiday week in most big countries.

 

[Noctis]

Studios decide it based on when they think a movie would be best to open in a country (apart from China where SARFT decides the date).

BvS will, and i say this with roughly 90% certainty, open day and date everywhere. This will be mainly thanks to most of the world celebrating Easter week which is a holiday week in most big countries.

Yeah here's hoping that WB/DC pull a massive release for all countries because for furious 7 $245m opening foreign is ridiculously impressive!

 

[Pickleweasel]

Kung fu Panda 3 moved, wouldn't be surprised if Divergent did the same.

 

[Noctis]

thank god, however look at the films of 2017, there's an untitled pixar film a week after the justice league part one, could we be having another man of steel/monsters university scenario again?

link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_in_film

 

[Pickleweasel]

thank god, however look at the films of 2017, there's an untitled pixar film a week after the justice league part one, could we be having another man of steel/monsters university scenario again?

link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_in_film

It's the dia de los muertos movie, it might move, it probably won't do MU numbers

 

[mclay18]

Kung fu Panda 3 moved, wouldn't be surprised if Divergent did the same.

I'm puzzled as to why DreamWorks Animation moved it to late January. Not that a winter release can't be profitable, but the first two did well in summer 2008 and 2011 (even though Hangover 2 took a big chunk out of KFP2).

I don't see Summit/Lionsgate moving Allegiant - Part 1 up or back down the calendar. Looking at the track record of Insurgent, it'll have a decent-sized opening but take a sizeable drop the following weekend. The drop may be bigger due to BVS.

 

[fake]

I'm puzzled as to why DreamWorks Animation moved it to late January. Not that a winter release can't be profitable, but the first two did well in summer 2008 and 2011 (even though Hangover 2 took a big chunk out of KFP2).

I don't see Summit/Lionsgate moving Allegiant - Part 1 up or back down the calendar. Looking at the track record of Insurgent, it'll have a decent-sized opening but take a sizeable drop the following weekend. The drop may be bigger due to BVS.

Dreamworks moved Panda for one reason - China. Chinese New Year is Feb 8th 2016, and they have a 10 day holiday stretch leading to that. January 29 release gives Panda an open China run. 300M+ from China isn't impossible now.

 

[mclay18]

Dreamworks moved Panda for one reason - China. Chinese New Year is Feb 8th 2016, and they have a 10 day holiday stretch leading to that. January 29 release gives Panda an open China run. 300M+ from China isn't impossible now.

Ah, that makes sense now. Good point.

 

[Marvin]

Outside of Shrek does Dreamworks seems to have bad luck with it's sequels. I'm thinking of HTTYD and Panda, the potential was through the roof coming off of the originals and both seemingly underperformed relatively. Shame really.

 

[Pickleweasel]

I'm puzzled as to why DreamWorks Animation moved it to late January. Not that a winter release can't be profitable, but the first two did well in summer 2008 and 2011 (even though Hangover 2 took a big chunk out of KFP2).

I don't see Summit/Lionsgate moving Allegiant - Part 1 up or back down the calendar. Looking at the track record of Insurgent, it'll have a decent-sized opening but take a sizeable drop the following weekend. The drop may be bigger due to BVS.

Insurgent hasn't even gotten to a point of being profitable yet. Obviously it still has a little ways to go but I'm guessing Lionsgate isn't going to want the sequel to drop 75% it's second weekend.

 

[Jonwo]

Outside of Shrek does Dreamworks seems to have bad luck with it's sequels. I'm thinking of HTTYD and Panda, the potential was through the roof coming off of the originals and both seemingly underperformed relatively. Shame really.

I think DWA are betting on KFP3 doing big business in China because I think it'll hurt domestic and OS in other territories and it faces The Secret Life of Pets which is Illumination's next film after Minions and February 2016 is very busy.

the success of American Sniper has made DWA and Jeffrey Katzenberg think January is a breakout month for hits, Boss Baby is scheduled for January 2017.

 

[dalonewolf]

Batman v Superman trailer will debut on 4/20/15 so excited

 

[Greeneyes]

Batman v Superman trailer will debut on 4/20/15 so excited

It's finally coming, yippee!

Don't tell me, when the trailer has dropped you will come in here full of excitement and predict 2.1 Billion minimum!

t:

 

[dalonewolf]

It's finally coming, yippee!

Don't tell me, when the trailer has dropped you will come in here full of excitement and predict 2.1 Billion minimum!

t:

Lol na prediction was 1.4bil as I recall but the goal is for this movie to make a billion anything over that will be a plus
BTW the batsuit in the 20sec teaser looks awsome

 

[Greeneyes]

Lol na prediction was 1.4bil as I recall but the goal is for this movie to make a billion anything over that will be a plus
BTW the batsuit in the 20sec teaser looks awsome

Yeah, I'm only joking man t:. As you say, anything over a billion would be great. I think 1.2 - 1.4 Billion is possible if it's great, 1 - 1.2 if it's a really good movie. 800 - 1 billion if it's critically panned and has bad word of mouth. I think though that it will be great. Asian market will help too.

Batsuit is

 

[dalonewolf]

Yeah, I'm only joking man t:. As you say, anything over a billion would be great. I think 1.2 - 1.4 Billion is possible if it's great, 1 - 1.2 if it's a really good movie. 800 - 1 billion if it's critically panned and has bad word of mouth. I think though that it will be great. Asian market will help too.

Batsuit is

OK I saw the full trailer yeah its gonna make 2bil lol jk
But affleck looks amazing in the batsuit man this movies has no limits
Superman looks big as the hulk omfg my mind has officially been blown and they don't even give you much but the lil bit you do get those shots are awsome
Take my money wb
#insnyderwetrust

 

[Noctis]

anyone here know if critic reviews (like RT scores) affect an overall box office performance?

 

[xxxxxx29]

anyone here know if critic reviews (like RT scores) affect an overall box office performance?

Not really.

And besides, Man of Steel's reviews was mostly mixed to positive from the critics. I'm honestly feeling the same vibe for Batman v Superman, which I have no problem with.

I do expect this movie to make a lot more than Man of Steel.

 

[JOE]

anyone here know if critic reviews (like RT scores) affect an overall box office performance?

Transformers: 57% - 709M
Transformers 2: 19% - 836M
Transformers 3: 36% - 1.12B
Transformers 4: 18% - 1.09B

In summary, no. The Transformers movies got progressively worse, for the most part, and made more and more money, for the most part.

Then you have movies like Batman Begins which only made 374M and had an 85% rating. 10x the movie, a third of the box office. That's just the way things go lol.

 

[Noctis]

Transformers: 57% - 709M
Transformers 2: 19% - 836M
Transformers 3: 36% - 1.12B
Transformers 4: 18% - 1.09B

In summary, no. The Transformers movies got progressively worse, for the most part, and made more and more money, for the most part.

well yeah but you can thank the Chinese for pouring a ridiculous amount of money into that franchise, even chinas box office out grossed the US box office for transformers 4