BvS Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction - Part 1

[The Shape]

I'm not worried about the OW for this film the hype will be there and it will open pretty massive, it's the legs that would concern me.

MoS opened great especially for a reboot, but its legs were mediocre and it didn't even cross 300 million domestically.

This film is going to need great word of mouth period for the big numbers to come through.

MoS also faced some pretty heavy box office competition, starting with the release of World War Z one week later [Edit: and Monster's University] and continuing throughout the summer.

I'd expect the initial box office run of BvS to mimic that of Furius 7 (and obviously surge past it), which opened Easter weekend this year, faced very little box office competition in the following weeks, and subsequently spent 4 weeks at #1 in the US. It crossed the $300 million mark domestically after only being in theaters for a month.

 

[Bruce Malone]

I remember a lot of people using the competition angle to explain why MoS fell off relatively quickly but looking back now it's obvious Man of Steel just did not connect with the public.

This is coming from someone who liked Man Of Steel but it still gets a lot of backlash and that's regardless of it facing WWZ during that summer.

I think we're past the era of the opening weekend (If AoU couldn't break A1 OW I don't see any film doing so soon), we're probably back to a point where films thrive more on their subsequent weeks. GotG was a great example of that from last summer.

 

[The Shape]

That's not an "angle". It's a valid explanation and there's no doubt that heavy box office competition made it difficult for MOS to stay at the top and have big follow-up weekends. The weekend following MOS's release saw the release of two studio tentpoles (one of them a kids movie), and then at least 2 high profile releases each weekend afterwards.

The June-July summer slots are known to be crowded with big releases, so this isn't anything new. Also, MOS was not akin to The Avengers or a high profile sequel. It was a reboot of a dormant franchise. It's clear that WB moved BvS away from the summer and into this late March slot to avoid that kind of competition and give it plenty of breathing room.

 

[TheNextNolan22]

Batman V. Superman just dodged a massive bullet. Beverly Hills Cop 4 was just put on hold, thus ensuring Batman V. Superman will have a massive opening that it probably wouldn't have had had BHC4's date had been according to plan.

 

[Marvin]

Looking at the movies coming out this weekend, seems to be par for the course competition wise for the marvel movie second weekend. Alot of rotten under performers.
Hopefully WB lucks out in this regard next year(with both movies).

 

[warcam]

I think a lot of people were put off my MoS (myself included), so it could be a case of "once bitten...twice shy" for some.
Unless the reviews and word-of-mouth are absolutely sensational, I don't see it making more than $375 million DOM. $1.3 billion total.

 

[rockandrollsoul]

I think a lot of people were put off my MoS (myself included), so it could be a case of "once bitten...twice shy" for some.
Unless the reviews and word-of-mouth are absolutely sensational, I don't see it making more than $375 million DOM. $1.3 billion total.

Which is still really big.

 

[dalonewolf]

Which is still really big.

Agreed
Like I said before
A billion is the goal
Anything over a billion is a plus

 

[fake]

It's odd how cultural competition of sorts, the fight the game..etc are being heavily credited for AOU not reaching it's benchmark of almost 20mill more US dollars. Even if the fight in question lasted about the duration of one or two showings at an ungodly hour. Yet various people can't acknowledge the idea that what MOS faced in it's second weekend took away enough of it's potential gross to have it's drop off percentage bumped up even 4 units. I mean AOU was about 20mill shy of a new record and people can find it in their discussions to figure even 10 or million of MOS's potential was shaved off due to an entire weekend of two other massive performing films culminating in almost 150mill combined.
I suppose the question is how much of hat 150 could have landed in mos' pocket in that second weekend. The following weeks I won't even bother.

We play a funny game when it comes to acknowledging competition. Luckily for BvS it's seemingly got clear skies. AOU seems to as well, unless the next three movies really kick as much butt as they should and capture the audiences imagination.

Avoiding comp is the name of the game imo.

So I looked at AOU's second Friday drop, and it fell 75% from last Friday with literally no competition against it. In 2013, when MoS fell 71% from Friday to Friday with 70M worth of new competition (just Friday), there were so many negative articles about that fall it was pretty ridiculous. AOU falls huge and literally no one is saying anything about it.

 

[theotherme]

So I looked at AOU's second Friday drop, and it fell 75% from last Friday with literally no competition against it. In 2013, when MoS fell 71% from Friday to Friday with 70M worth of new competition (just Friday), there were so many negative articles about that fall it was pretty ridiculous. AOU falls huge and literally no one is saying anything about it.

It does feel curious, doesn't it. I have yet to see any the sky is falling, hand wringing, what went wrong post mortems of AOU, when people seemed pretty eager to do them for MOS.

 

[Marvin]

Don't worry, the post mortems as they were, will be back next spring.
Expectations will again be really high, even after all the talk of non interest, and when the film doesn't hit those quasi expectations, even if unlike AOU it's not 20 mill less than the highest prior installment and 40mill less than professional predictions and coming off of nothing but acclaim everywhere, there will be no refuge.
Something about dc.

I think AOU was marvel's first forray into not being the forever underdog, where no matter what the film does it's seen as over performing, this circumstance just didn't allow for the benchmark to be moved below certain numbers. I still find it funny how unlike the TDKR shooting, people and professionals knew the boxing fight(and all that other stuff) was on it's way and they still predicted what they predicted, yet after the fact it was some big factor(that they didn't account for in the slightest prior...)?
It is what it is.

Whomever wants to take the box office crown in 2016 is clearly going to have to earn it. As it should be(unlike 2014 imo).

 

[TheNextNolan22]

So I looked at AOU's second Friday drop, and it fell 75% from last Friday with literally no competition against it. In 2013, when MoS fell 71% from Friday to Friday with 70M worth of new competition (just Friday), there were so many negative articles about that fall it was pretty ridiculous. AOU falls huge and literally no one is saying anything about it.

Meh, I'm over it. It's ********, but it is what it is.

 

[Mrs. Wayne]

So I looked at AOU's second Friday drop, and it fell 75% from last Friday with literally no competition against it. In 2013, when MoS fell 71% from Friday to Friday with 70M worth of new competition (just Friday), there were so many negative articles about that fall it was pretty ridiculous. AOU falls huge and literally no one is saying anything about it.

Really? People were claiming the sky was falling when it didn't beat the Avengers Opening Weekend cash.

 

[Marvin]

Meh, I'm over it. It's ********, but it is what it is.

I'd personally be over it and alot of things as well if not for how big a deal people make of the negatives. I'd be over collateral damage for instance if not for the same.
MOS' box office takes were highly scrutinized in their time and still. I really don't give all that much credence to such things but golly was there a big deal made, and an inaccurate one at that. So now, I can't help but find myself interested

 

[Juha Bach]

So I looked at AOU's second Friday drop, and it fell 75% from last Friday with literally no competition against it. In 2013, when MoS fell 71% from Friday to Friday with 70M worth of new competition (just Friday), there were so many negative articles about that fall it was pretty ridiculous. AOU falls huge and literally no one is saying anything about it.

There is a very good chance that AoU might not beat TDKR which did not have 3D in the DoM box office, trust me if that happens then you will see the negative articles.

 

[STARMAN]

This is why I like to set a more reasonable bar of success for Batman V Superman. You don't want a billion dollars to be considered underachieving.

 

[Marvin]

There is a very good chance that AoU might not beat TDKR which did not have 3D in the DoM box office, trust me if that happens then you will see the negative articles.

Do you mean TDK?

 

[Pickleweasel]

Do you mean TDK?

Avengers is looking like it's gonna end up with 450 mil domestically which is what TDKR did

 

[TheNextNolan22]

Do you mean TDK?

TDKRises did $448 million. That's basically the projected range for AOU if it continues at this stage.

 

[Marvin]

TDKRises did $448 million. That's basically the projected range for AOU if it continues at this stage.

ah, I see.
I do think the mcu films have great luck with competition in their following weeks. If that luck continues and these next two weeks are littered with under performers, I expect AOU to pass TDKR, however if these next three films capture some zeitgeist or even do well, then things could get interesting.

I still remember may 2012...2008 even...
we'll see how it goes.

However not surpassing the non 3D nolan films with an Avengers sequel would definitely get pundit tongues wagging. That and F4 getting higher reviews this year. Interesting times.

 

[TheNextNolan22]

ah, I see.
I do think the mcu films have great luck with competition in their following weeks. If that luck continues and these next two weeks are littered with under performers, I expect AOU to pass TDKR, however if these next three films capture some zeitgeist or even do well, then things could get interesting.

I still remember may 2012...2008 even...
we'll see how it goes.

However not surpassing the non 3D nolan films with an Avengers sequel would definitely get pundit tongues wagging. That and F4 getting higher reviews this year. Interesting times.

I've been saying this since the first trailer came out that F4 will end up being the best reviewed CBM of 2015. I kinda hope I'm right.

 

[Marvin]

I've been saying this since the first trailer came out that F4 will end up being the best reviewed CBM of 2015. I kinda hope I'm right.

Nothing can be certain with the pool of critics these days, if you produce something during the 'wrong time'...MOS releasing in 2006 as opposed to the year after avengers for instance.
Hopefully it's another chronicle and not something they collectively try to make an example of.

With all this bad publicity the director has gotten in media circles lately, expect that to be mentioned in various reviews. I mean Faraci is one of these RT votes counted and his review is already written.
Still, it could happen.

 

[fake]

ah, I see.
I do think the mcu films have great luck with competition in their following weeks. If that luck continues and these next two weeks are littered with under performers, I expect AOU to pass TDKR, however if these next three films capture some zeitgeist or even do well, then things could get interesting.

I still remember may 2012...2008 even...
we'll see how it goes.

However not surpassing the non 3D nolan films with an Avengers sequel would definitely get pundit tongues wagging. That and F4 getting higher reviews this year. Interesting times.

AOU's second weekend drop is something else. Literally no competition and still fell 60%. Imagine if last week was not deflated by 5M or so (I don't believe the 17M deflation a lot of "experts" are throwing around). That is a Spider-Man 3 level drop from a record opening.

 

[Marvin]

AOU's second weekend drop is something else. Literally no competition and still fell 60%. Imagine if last week was not deflated by 5M or so (I don't believe the 17M deflation a lot of "experts" are throwing around). That is a Spider-Man 3 level drop from a record opening.

A weaker opening may have worked out for the best on this particular issue. Not all bad news.

 

[fake]

A weaker opening may have worked out for the best on this particular issue. Not all bad news.

That is where MoS suffered. It's first Sunday hold was insane thanks to Father's Day (see also: The Incredible Hulk), made the second weekend look worse.