BvS Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction - Part 1

[ConnorKon-El]

Oh yeah. We can debate MOS's merits endlessly, but WB made a boneheaded decision to release it in mid-June. It would likely have better staying power had World War Z and/or Monsters University been released later in the summer.

I think if WB knew how MOS was going to fare in mid-June, they would've swapped the dates with Pacific Rim. Or if they had the foresight to be more risky, definitely in March or August 2013.

BVS has a clear field.

Ain't that the truth.

 

[snpklsdmbldr]

yeah WB should have switched the release dates of Man of Steel and Pacific Rim, MOS could have earned more. but anyway both of them earned what's needed for a sequel or move forward to the next one. with the release of the DC plans until 2020 we now all know WB won't just rely on summer movie anymore and supposedly they'll be making smaller budget movies more frequently.

 

[kedrell]

I think they wisely(for their overall business model) put Pacific Rim in the prime spot rather than MoS because they knew PR needed the help more...and they were right. In MoS's mid-June spot PR probably would have lost another $100m WW off it's total and thus never would have been profitable. In the mid-July spot it managed WW to just get passed the point where it was in the black. And MoS also was solidly in the black.

We don't know how much more successful MoS would have been with a mid-July release but it seems likely it at least would have been able to cross that $300m mark DOM as it only needed less than $9m to get there.

 

[Flint Marko]

I don't care that MOS is discussed ad nauseum. Can you just do it on, oh I don't know, THE MOS BOARD?!

If you need help finding it, here is the link: http://forums.superherohype.com/forumdisplay.php?f=348

You can be rude as you want, it won't change the fact that MoS will come up here on a daily basis. It's inevitable regardless of how much you want to complain.

 

[HaplessHenchman]

You can be rude as you want, it won't change the fact that MoS will come up here on a daily basis. It's inevitable regardless of how much you want to complain.

Again, anyone can discuss the merits, or lack thereof, of MOS on it's own board. That is fine, no problem.

But what I have a problem with is the constant derailing of threads on this board on yet another MOS discussion. I mean, it's been a couple of pages in this thread now where no one has made a prediction about the BM vs SM Box Office....you know, the actual topic on hand.

 

[mclay18]

I think they wisely(for their overall business model) put Pacific Rim in the prime spot rather than MoS because they knew PR needed the help more...and they were right. In MoS's mid-June spot PR probably would have lost another $100m WW off it's total and thus never would have been profitable. In the mid-July spot it managed WW to just get passed the point where it was in the black. And MoS also was solidly in the black.

Legendary bankrolled 75% of Pacific Rim... pretty sure Thomas Tull had some pull in terms of the release date. Also think he lobbied for Universal to stick to a spring 2017 date to minimize the competition.

Now while it's good that MOS and PR were profitable enough to get sequels, summer 2013 was still a bloodbath with all these movies vying for screen space. Thank God all the studios are seeing sense -- first Marvel with the highly successful spring and late summer 2014 releases, which encouraged Universal to release PR2 for April 2017 and WB to release BVS in March 2016.

I know Marvel Studios wasn't the first to 'pioneer' spring blockbusters, as WB was the first to do it. But then you have Universal and Marvel got the ball rolling on big sequels opening in spring, and it's encouraging the studios to spread the movies around.

 

[Mister J]

Less Man of Steel blather. More BatmanvSuperman box office blather.

Not critiques of MoS's release date, box office legs, the amount of destruction in the film, if Superman shaved before or after he put on his suit or whatever else people convince themselves is relevant as this forum wages a continuing battle not to become a referendum on a film released well over a year ago.

 

[ConnorKon-El]

Less Man of Steel blather. More BatmanvSuperman box office blather.

Not critiques of MoS's release date, box office legs, the amount of destruction in the film, if Superman shaved before or after he put on his suit or whatever else people convince themselves is relevant as this forum wages a continuing battle not to become a referendum on a film released well over a year ago.

 

[Mister J]

You laugh, but inquiring minds and all...

At any rate, I'm not much of a box office guy (other than saying "****, that's a lot of money!", but I would be interested in eventually seeing just what the opening weekend on this thing is. The names alone should make for huge buzz. You hope the quality is enough to bring about decent legs.

 

[Noctis]

does anyone know why man of steel only opened in 24 countries opening weekend while a movie like iron man 3 opened in over 42 countries opening weekend? also how many countries is BvS opening in at their first week?

 

[kedrell]

As in all things it's dependent on the scheduling and available space in each market. Remember these other countries have their own cinema and that takes up space as well. I mean GotG opened here in early August but China and Italy didn't get it until October. It happens all the time. IM3 just was planned out with regard to foreign release schedules better than MoS and thus needed much less of a staggered release schedule.

 

[Iceman]

You laugh, but inquiring minds and all...

At any rate, I'm not much of a box office guy (other than saying "****, that's a lot of money!", but I would be interested in eventually seeing just what the opening weekend on this thing is. The names alone should make for huge buzz. You hope the quality is enough to bring about decent legs.

Opening weekend should be huge. I can imagine a good chunk of the Nolan Batfilm audience turning up although some of the GA members who don't regularly watch comic-films might not. Anything below $100m would be plain bad. Up to $150m I think is still no surprise. Above $150m is where it will have to hit all the right notes and where I would say well done.

 

[Mister J]

That IMAX tickets should be running $20+ in a number of markets will aid that.

 

[mclay18]

You laugh, but inquiring minds and all...

At any rate, I'm not much of a box office guy (other than saying "****, that's a lot of money!", but I would be interested in eventually seeing just what the opening weekend on this thing is. The names alone should make for huge buzz. You hope the quality is enough to bring about decent legs.

If it's a decent movie overall, it should have a nice 2.8X multiplier from its opening weekend. If the movie's great and audiences take to it, the multiplier will be bigger -- maybe 3X.

But I have to agree what jmc said. In order for BVS to be a tremendous hit, it would have to have the 'perfect storm' going for it akin to what TDK and Avengers had going into their opening weekends. Rave reviews, audience buzz, great marketing, good release date...

 

[mclay18]

does anyone know why man of steel only opened in 24 countries opening weekend while a movie like iron man 3 opened in over 42 countries opening weekend? also how many countries is BvS opening in at their first week?

It's not just the amount of screens WB can book internationally, but if there's a nationwide holiday in one country later on (theoretically more money) -- sometimes the dates are staggered. Sometimes there's import provisions to allow locally-made movies to get a fair shot, which means that country (like China) won't release the foreign-produced film until later.

Right now -- if IMDB's listings are correct -- the international release dates are day-and-date for the most part with the U.S. -- but it isn't complete. Several European countries and New Zealand get it 1-2 days ahead of the U.S., but it opens in the U.S., the UK, Ireland, Singapore, and Malaysia on March 25. Germany gets it a day later.

I think BVS will probably open up in roughly the same amount of territories as IM3 did on the same week, if not more. 300: Rise of an Empire opened mainly day-and-date worldwide this past March.

 

[Iceman]

That IMAX tickets should be running $20+ in a number of markets will aid that.

Can't hurt. IMAX growth overseas should help out along with regular cinema coverage. And I can imagine IMAX including US being almost sold out for something huge like this. The marketing really needs to take advantage of the concept. There's some really cool things they could do with it.

 

[fake]

It's not just the amount of screens WB can book internationally, but if there's a nationwide holiday in one country later on (theoretically more money) -- sometimes the dates are staggered. Sometimes there's import provisions to allow locally-made movies to get a fair shot, which means that country (like China) won't release the foreign-produced film until later.

Right now -- if IMDB's listings are correct -- the international release dates are day-and-date for the most part with the U.S. -- but it isn't complete. Several European countries and New Zealand get it 1-2 days ahead of the U.S., but it opens in the U.S., the UK, Ireland, Singapore, and Malaysia on March 25. Germany gets it a day later.

I think BVS will probably open up in roughly the same amount of territories as IM3 did on the same week, if not more. 300: Rise of an Empire opened mainly day-and-date worldwide this past March.

I am 100% sure that BvS will release a couple of days early in Europe and South America, mainly to take advantage of the 5 day Easter weekend in all those territories. Asia will most likely be day and date with the US.

 

[jmc]

If it's a decent movie overall, it should have a nice 2.8X multiplier from its opening weekend. If the movie's great and audiences take to it, the multiplier will be bigger -- maybe 3X.

But I have to agree what jmc said. In order for BVS to be a tremendous hit, it would have to have the 'perfect storm' going for it akin to what TDK and Avengers had going into their opening weekends. Rave reviews, audience buzz, great marketing, good release date...

And you can't predict perfect storms. The concept alone or the names involved isn't good enough to guarantee it, from my perspective anyway there's just way too much faith being placed on those two aspects to be the reason for a hitting a billion dollars. BvS not only has to hit the ball for 6, it has to hit it out of the stadium entirely.

 

[mclay18]

And you can't predict perfect storms. The concept alone or the names involved isn't good enough to guarantee it, from my perspective anyway there's just way too much faith being placed on those two aspects to be the reason for a hitting a billion dollars. BvS not only has to hit the ball for 6, it has to hit it out of the stadium entirely.

I know that. I don't think Snyder has everything it takes to get BVS to that juncture, but a good script really helps. Big question is how Affleck will fare in the role, Gal's debut as Wonder Woman, et al. If they're well-received, then it's halfway there.

 

[fake]

Here's the thing though, BvS does NOT need to be an Avengers like success at all. If it does numbers similar to TDK worldwide, it will be a huge success.

The 2 things it needs to be are
- It needs to have a huge opening weekend, at a minimum the March OW record must go down
- It needs to be well received by critics. If this movie gets 75% or more on RT that will set the tone for the entire DC Universe moving forward.

 

[jmc]

I know that. I don't think Snyder has everything it takes to get BVS to that juncture, but a good script really helps. Big question is how Affleck will fare in the role, Gal's debut as Wonder Woman, et al. If they're well-received, then it's halfway there.

It has to capture people's imaginations. MoS set itself up as something that would do just that but fell well short. If people want a billion dollars the film has to have a giant green check mark in every category.

 

[Juha Bach]

Here's the thing though, BvS does NOT need to be an Avengers like success at all. If it does numbers similar to TDK worldwide, it will be a huge success.

The 2 things it needs to be are
- It needs to have a huge opening weekend, at a minimum the March OW record must go down
- It needs to be well received by critics. If this movie gets 75% or more on RT that will set the tone for the entire DC Universe moving forward.

The second point is more of a bonus than necessity.If WB make 1.2 billion with bvs and the movie has a similar performance with the critics as MOS, are they going to stop making dc movies?

 

[fake]

The second point is more of a bonus than necessity.If WB make 1.2 billion with bvs and the movie has a similar performance with the critics as MOS, are they going to stop making dc movies?

Of course they don't, but what I am talking about is more of a halo effect on the entire DC brand as a whole. Pixar at their peak, and you could make a case for Marvel right now, have a halo effect from critics where the strength of the brand makes critics be slightly easy on weaker efforts. Cars, Brave etc. are much much below the standards of Pixar but they get soft passes from critics on RT. Same thing with IM3 and Thor 2.

 

[jmc]

From what I could remember Cars got roasted by the critics, and Brave got reasonably mixed reviews too.

 

[Spiderdevil]

DVD sales been dropping like 15% a year, those movies have also been out 2 years longer. The final number isn't just the number that was sold in the first 2 months like box office. Sequels to those movies have already come out which would give those a push MOS come Aug 2016 could be all the way up to 115-120.

Now you are talking out stats out of your hat.Very well

ASM 103M
The Wolverine 77M
Monsters University 130M
TDKR 151M
TA 218M

The only one that you can really use is Amazing Spiderman, and I thought you were trying to show that bad movies still got higher dvd sales (Xmen 3, Wolverine, spiderman 3, green lantern). The three you just listed aren't considered horrible like the first list. Once your argument falls flat that just goes out the window though huh? lol

No because I can't think any more horrible CBMs which released close to MOS
ASM2's DVD released just recently so we can't count that

And my argument was that the DVD sales of MOS are decent but nothing out of ordinarily like some people want to believe