BvS Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction - - - Part 12

[Pfeiffer-Pfan]

Superman Lives was cancelled two weeks before shooting. That's just one example.

Crazier **** has happened in Hollywood. If money is at stake they will do serious ****.

Of course anything can happen... but I doubt WB want a repeat of such things.

Look, I'm no fan of Snyder, but WB will be having serious discussions about the response/performance of this movie... not mass beheadings.

 

[Poni_Boy]

Whoa. Looks like, if the multiplier is anything around "normal", it will hit the pesimistic $55M (66.87% drop)

It ain't doing 55 unless they start charging 1.5x for tickets

 

[bholliday]

I seen this finishing at $845 million when all is said and done. Huge drop next weekend. Will be all but wiped out by Jungle Book and Civil War

 

[Poni_Boy]

Of course anything can happen... but I doubt WB want a repeat of such things.

Look, I'm no fan of Snyder, but WB will be having serious discussions about the response/performance of this movie... not mass beheadings.

Clearly you've never been to a shareholder meeting. They always start with the unveiling of the guillotine

 

[Knight-Tale]

800m-900m is a disappointment but not a flop for the studio
That's pretty much in line with marvel's efforts and an improvement off of the divisive man of steel.

Chinese theaters doing an about face and taking the tax liens and cutting its screenings was unforeseen

Negative reviews hurt the films legs as it was frontloaded

Most cite the dark tone of the film that they are already saying won't be present in Justice League.

I assume WB will be working wonders on these points as I did to spin this and keep Justice League going forward.
If they halt JL then they pretty much assume Suicide Squad and Wonder Woman will be bringing in more than BvS by a lot.

Then you have the known flops for WB coming out this summer and then you have comic con. I'm not sure how much leverage there is for them at this point
Even Fox had to just soldier on after Last stand and Wolverine origins

 

[johnboy3434]

So, third week box office. Drop predictions?

Well, a "normal" third weekend drop would be 46.6%. If the movie continues to underperform at this rate, however, I calculate that it could be as high as 68.2%.

 

[jokesonm3]

So, third week box office. Drop predictions?

3rd week? 15M tops.

 

[wobbly]

So, third week box office. Drop predictions?

If the actuals pan out as expected my head is thinking softer drop. Best case maybe 50%? Too generous?

Gut is telling me... 'holy rusted metal, Batman!!!'

 

[johnboy3434]

3rd week? 15M tops.

Seconded. As of right now, my time series projection is telling me $14.7 million for the third weekend.

 

[Adhesive Boy]

800m-900m is a disappointment but not a flop for the studio
That's pretty much in line with marvel's efforts and an improvement off of the divisive man of steel.

Marvel spends less on their movies than WB did on BvS though. They certainly don't make most of their movies with a 800 million break even point.

 

[Kanon]

It ain't doing 55 unless they start charging 1.5x for tickets

$25M today and $15M is off the table? (not that is supposed to be good, but it doesn't look that fartfetch)

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

I can see the 3rd Week drop being kinder personally.

 

[Orba]

800m-900m is a disappointment but not a flop for the studio

It is when the studio has to reach that figure just to break even. On a business position they might have seen it as an investment towards the future of the brand, but that would only work the money invested could be shown to have strengthened the brand and that it would help improve future expansions of the brand. But BvS failed to do that, they are looking at a very expensive film breaking even and not doing anything to help sell the brand to the audience.

 

[parkerpete]

Even Fox had to just soldier on after Last stand and Wolverine origins

Hardly!

Their next move was to clear the deck, hire Matthew Vaughn (who was the original and preferred director of X3 who was forced to leave due to scheduling),
and then pull a retro-reboot with all the X-Men characters recast as younger versions of themselves. And it worked.

That's why I imagine the most feasible course is... release SS, release WW, delay JL, do a solo Batman movie, and then see where things stand. If all those films work, bring back Cavill for a Snyderless JL.

However, if WW doesn't do well, then you can forget about JL entirely for the rest of the decade.

 

[TheVileOne]

Diane Nelson probably should've been let go a few years ago. Didn't the whole DC Entertainment initiative basically start in 2009? Piggy backing off the success of Iron Man and Marvel's film plans?

Let's also not forget that before Avengers DC and Warner Bros downright REFUSED to consider a shared film universe and wanted everything separate. Until Avengers blew everyone's expectations away.

 

[InspecktahDeck]

I think the front page article about the friday drop was written by WB, they mentioned the cinema score and Deathly Hallows but nothing about tasteless fruits

 

[TheVileOne]

Tasteless fruits? Is that a reference I'm not getting?

 

[wobbly]

Tasteless fruits? Is that a reference I'm not getting?

Rotten Tomatoes?

 

[TheVileOne]

Ahh.

 

[Kanon]

I think the front page article about the friday drop was written by WB, they mentioned the cinema score and Deathly Hallows but nothing about tasteless fruits

A lot of articles have been looking like damage control this last week. Either from WB or editors that don't want to alienate fans telling them the harsh truth. I prefer to think it's the latter.

 

[CaptainCanada]

Look, I'm no fan of Snyder, but WB will be having serious discussions about the response/performance of this movie... not mass beheadings.

Drew McWeeny has been saying that if this movie doesn't make a billion (which is off the table at this point) you're going to see people losing their jobs.

 

[parkerpete]

Drew McWeeny has been saying that if this movie doesn't make a billion (which is off the table at this point) you're going to see people losing their jobs.

But he's a LIAR! A FILTHY MARVELITE LIAR! *sobs uncontrollably into Batman pillow*

 

[daddydivine]

I think the front page article about the friday drop was written by WB, they mentioned the cinema score and Deathly Hallows but nothing about tasteless fruits

Or they could be trying to not seem bias? They say it was looking to drop 70% yet they also made comparisons to previous blockbusters doing the same numbers. In fact the mentioned how much it cost as well as the cinema score. Both, which honestly, they could have kept out of the article. All in all it did a great job not coming off as an opinion piece.

 

[Wylie Times]

Drew McWeeny has been saying that if this movie doesn't make a billion (which is off the table at this point) you're going to see people losing their jobs.

To be clear he's been saying that's what he THINKS will happen. He hasn't heard that from any sources. The only thing he heard from sources was that execs were worried the film would be as divisive as Man of Steel and they were hoping for something that would have MUCH more mass appeal.

 

[Iceman]

Diane Nelson probably should've been let go a few years ago. Didn't the whole DC Entertainment initiative basically start in 2009? Piggy backing off the success of Iron Man and Marvel's film plans?

Let's also not forget that before Avengers DC and Warner Bros downright REFUSED to consider a shared film universe and wanted everything separate. Until Avengers blew everyone's expectations away.

I don't think these execs have the first clue how to help their own situation. Tom Rothman would fit in well at WB right now.