BvS Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction - - - Part 12

[Kanon]

so, estimates are $52.4M, close to the $55M I expected after Friday numbers. Pretty bad, it was the most pesimistic prediction on Thursday

 

[third3ye]

@GiteshPandya:
$85M intl wknd for #BatmanvSuperman falling 67% from opening. $419.8M intl cume, $681.3M global now heading to $900-925M.

 

[Poni_Boy]

@GiteshPandya:
$85M intl wknd for #BatmanvSuperman falling 67% from opening. $419.8M intl cume, $681.3M global now heading to $900-925M.

If The Boss does as well as projected I don't see $900 mil happening. Not with Jungle Book coming out right after.

 

[bapi]

Did WB release their financial statement that they need 800mill to break even? Production and marketing together is $400 million. The cost of marketing is balance out by sponsors and promotion. How are people coming out with these high end number?

They don't make these movies to finish with 20M profit. DC is Warners' biggest brand and WB's situation is not great right now.

 

[johnboy3434]

So it seems the second weekend drop was 62.1% sans Thursday pre-shows. Better than we thought, but still significantly worse than the average 55.6%.

Given the weekend estimates, here's my time series predictions for the rest of the week.

Monday - $3.56 million
Tuesday - $3.82 million
Wednesday - $2.81 million
Thursday - $2.77 million

SECOND WEEK TOTAL - $65.3 million

That would be a week-on-week decrease of 64% (sans Thursday pre-shows). The average of comparable films is 58.4%.

 

[Knight-Tale]

Much higher international take than I was expecting
If we compare and adjust to Iron Man 3 it should be about 20 million behind its final take 900m to 1b
When all is said and done
All that while china was cutting theaters


After this weekend Snyder has gotta be in a comfortable position

Jungle Book might take the top spot from BvS when it comes out but it shouldn't hurt its business too much and if it flops we might see less of a drop.

 

[Poni_Boy]

So it seems the second weekend drop was 62.1% sans Thursday pre-shows. Better than we thought, but still significantly worse than the average 55.6%.

Given the weekend estimates, here's my time series predictions for the rest of the week.

Monday - $3.56 million
Tuesday - $3.82 million
Wednesday - $2.81 million
Thursday - $2.77 million

SECOND WEEK TOTAL - $65.3 million

That would be a week-on-week decrease of 64% (sans Thursday pre-shows).

Based on the data we have what're your end of week predictions for weeks 4-7? Where do you think it will end up total assuming it exits theaters after week 8

 

[DACrowe]

I still will not be surprised if the final numbers on Monday show it did drop over 70%. Time to move a few decimals and all that as the stories are written on Sunday at the studio.

With that said, seeing fans in here I cannot help but think of one of the movie's ponderous lines.

This is how it starts. The fever, the rage, that turns good men cruel.

Some fans are definitely experiencing that now.

 

[C. Lee]

Batman v Superman BOX OFFICE DISCUSSION THREAD

 

[DACrowe]

Batman v Superman BOX OFFICE DISCUSSION THREAD

Unless I missed a post that got deleted, this is all pretty much about box office and how it effects the perception of this movie to the public and it sequels?

 

[C. Lee]

Unless I missed a post that got deleted, this is all pretty much about box office and how it effects the perception of this movie to the public and it sequels?

You missed over a hundred so far that have been deleted.

 

[WilliamK99]

Does anyone else think that the bad WOM and huge drop could affect box office earnings of future DC Universe films? By being interconnected, a few bad apples could spoil the entire bunch and turn people away from DCEU films...

 

[Petelancer]

The real question which would be very interesting to do and to potentially rake in more box officr would be a second re-release with alot of the edited footage back in for a longer more complete cut. It would be a golden opportunity to rake in more at the box office, help viewers better like the product and be something interesting and new

 

[kalhawj]

Does anyone else think that the bad WOM and huge drop could affect box office earnings of future DC Universe films? By being interconnected, a few bad apples could spoil the entire bunch and turn people away from DCEU films...

Not at all. If SS and WW hit it off with fans and critics it will make bank at the BO. Right now WW Is the highlight of BvS and people are excited to see her solo movie. It should do big at the BO. Probably record showing of female at CBM. SS will draw in Batman and DC fans. It will do well, how well at BO is yet to be determine.

 

[johnboy3434]

Based on the data we have what're your end of week predictions for weeks 4-7? Where do you think it will end up total assuming it exits theaters after week 8

Warning: Extrapolating that far out decreases accuracy greatly. But here goes...

Week 2: $65.3 million (-64%), cume $274.4 million
Week 3: $31.9 million (-51.1%), cume $306.4 million
Week 4: $15.6 million (-51.1%), cume $322 million
Week 5: $6.3 million (-59.7%), cume $328.3 million
Week 6: $2.79 million (-55.8%), cume $331.1 million
Week 7: $1.03 million (-63.2%), cume $332.1 million
Week 8 (thru Tue): $242 thousand (-74.4% from prev thru-Tue), cume $332.3 million

The model as it stands now "breaks down" after day 54, going into impossible outcomes (negative grosses, etc.). That will change as time goes on, but right now, it's predicting a total domestic gross of $332.3 million.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

At the rate it's going, $330M seems too high to be honest.

 

[Shikamaru]

Does anyone else think that the bad WOM and huge drop could affect box office earnings of future DC Universe films? By being interconnected, a few bad apples could spoil the entire bunch and turn people away from DCEU films...

Most likely, especially when it comes to WW and JL. There's also the chance that if the other DC films are on par with BvS then WB might potentially make the CBM bubble pop by oversaturating the market with subpar movies.

 

[Poni_Boy]

does anyone else think that the bad wom and huge drop could affect box office earnings of future dc universe films? By being interconnected, a few bad apples could spoil the entire bunch and turn people away from dceu films...

100%

 

[Poni_Boy]

Warning: Extrapolating that far out decreases accuracy greatly. But here goes...

Week 2: $65.3 million (-64%), cume $274.4 million
Week 3: $31.9 million (-51.1%), cume $306.4 million
Week 4: $15.6 million (-51.1%), cume $322 million
Week 5: $6.3 million (-59.7%), cume $328.3 million
Week 6: $2.79 million (-55.8%), cume $331.1 million
Week 7: $1.03 million (-63.2%), cume $332.1 million
Week 8 (thru Tue): $242 thousand (-74.4% from prev thru-Tue), cume $332.3 million

The model as it stands now "breaks down" after day 54, going into impossible outcomes (negative grosses, etc.). That will change as time goes on, but right now, it's predicting a total domestic gross of $332.3 million.

Abysmal. But logical. Thanks

 

[Poni_Boy]

At the rate it's going, $330M seems too high to be honest.

And here I thought $350 was a moderate expectation. Jesus

 

[Wylie Times]

Most likely, especially when it comes to WW and JL. There's also the chance that if the other DC films are on par with BvS then WB might potentially make the CBM bubble pop by oversaturating the market with subpar movies.

I don't think WW will be affected at all.

People came out of this movie excited for a Wonder Woman film. People have already been craving a female lead super hero film and this will fill that void. It'll also be made by someone other than Zack Snyder.

The only films that might be affected by BvS bad word of mouth are Justice League and the films that follow it.

 

[WilliamK99]

At the rate it's going, $330M seems too high to be honest.

So Deadpool would have outgrossed BvS domestically, not even in my wildest dreams did I ever think that was possible...Ever...

 

[wobbly]

Better International than I guestimated (figured around $70mil there with China in mind) so shows how good my guessing is, lol

Still a big drop from the opening weekends $254mil international haul, though not so big if we take China's numbers (they dropped the theatre count big time so kinda skews it a bit) out of the equation. I think about 66% with China, about 57% without?.

Domestic is at about 68-69%?

 

[B]

800-900M is not an optimal result when they expected close to Avengers level money.

Setting the critic rating discussion to one side, it's completely unrealistic to expect Avengers type money when you take into consideration that they set this movie up with 1 movie & Avengers was set up over 3 or 4 movies. Not to mention I don't think even the fans thought The Avengers was going to be quite the financial success it was, I'd imagine it vastly outperformed even Marvel's expectations given that the movies that set it up all did between $250-$700m, hitting $1B was probably a realistic target for The Avengers to match TDK's success.

I'd be inclined to think that realistically they should be expecting (for BvS) anything from $800m - $1b before the movie actually released. It should still reach $800m & maybe scrape itself to $900m by the end of it's run.

 

[Boom]

I'm sure not hitting a billion will eat at them a bit, considering they managed to hit that threshold with two Batman films (without 3D or the shared universe concept).

and honestly, if films like Jurassic World and Fast 7 can hit the right buttons with audiences to reach a billion, I don't see why that expectation is unrealistic for two of the greatest icons in pop culture. This concept had the potential to be a true juggernaut.

I truly struggle to see a scenario where WB looks at an $800 million haul and says, "We're thrilled with this! Mission accomplished!"