BvS Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction - - - - Part 13

[Flint Marko]

Yes, BvS has flown past it's Marvel comparable, Iron Man 2, as expected. BvS has already made more in 2 weeks then it's MCU comparable grossed in its entire run. It's doing fine as the DCEU's world builder.

Iron Man 2 would be comparable to BvS if IM2's budget was way higher and it featured Captain America.
There's no perfect MCU analogue to compare this to - they tried to do an Avengers style event film in their second installment, and it's vastly underperforming.

 

[king666]

"it's gonna make $1bi, it's batman and superman"

*few months later*

"it's the second movie of the franchise, it was never gonna make $1bi"

 

[Unbreakable Lex]

The only "comparables" this movie has are Clash of the Titans and Furious 7. They were both released on Easter weekend, they both debuted at #1, they both opened at over 3,000 theaters, they were both rated PG-13, and they both made more than $150 million domestic gross.

BvS is underperforming both of them in terms of legs. Its ticket sales are dropping faster, which indicates a lack of repeat viewers and below-average word of mouth. And it's barely keeping ahead of F7 even in terms of absolute sales despite a stronger start.

Well if you want to go out of genre. I'm speaking simply in terms of getting movie franchises up and running.

Yeah, no ...
Dude, you are comparing Iron Man 2 which introduced Black Widow and had Nick Fury in supporting role, and had a Z-list villain as the main villain, and Justin Hammer isn't even that well know either. That's it.
I really see your point of view, but it's not comparable. The characters in BvS are 100 times more well known and profible compared to the supporting ones in IM2 back in 2010.
Yeah, now it's not the case with Black Widow and Nick Fury. But wow! I mean really WOW!

So it's DC's problem that the MCU needed 7 films to get a comparable? It's DC's fault that Marvel prematurally pimped out their lead dog to another studio? It's DC's problem that Marvel decided to build their universe on Black Widow and Nick Fury and a Z list villain? Again, both movies setup the larger universe and are the 2nd and 3rd film in the franchise. Of course they are comparable. Using Iron Man 3 as a comp is just moving the goalposts. You should compare "The Batman" to Iron Man 3 since both, well it's likely Batman will, get the team up movie bump by following it.

The Incredible Hulk isn't a pass, the movie happened. It wasn't a huge box office smash and that's why the Hulk isn't getting a sequel. General Ross is in Civil War? Looks like they count it to me lol. If you really think comparing Iron-Man 2 to a Batman/Superman/Wonder Woman film with Flash/Cyborg and Aquaman cameos is a fair comparison then by all means go ahead. If that's what helps you sleep at night knowing the DCeU is superior to the MCU financially.

None of this helps me sleep at night, what? Again, what are the two universe building movies in both franchises? Okay, we'll give Marvel a pass and add in TIH, so Marvel's third movie v DCs second, if that's what you want. Really, at the end of the day, both movies served to follow up on the original and expand their universes. That's really all that needs to be said. If you would like to compare Marvel's 7th movie to DC Film's second, do so by all means. Whatever helps you sleep at night.

 

[Lily Adler]

"it's gonna make $1bi, it's batman and superman"

*few months later*

"it's the second movie of the franchise, it was never gonna make $1bi"

My sentiments exactly. The altering of history is getting tiresome. There were people who legitimately believed the film wouldn't make the billion mark, but the majority have made the former claim several times.

 

[JOE]

"it's gonna make $1bi, it's batman and superman"

*few months later*

"it's the second movie of the franchise, it was never gonna make $1bi"

I really thought 1B would be a worst case scenario, but then I saw the movie... Even when the first wave of reviews poured in I thought it would still be at least as enjoyable as MOS for me. Nope. Does that mean the DCeU's 6th film needs to make 1.5B? And after 13 films it needs to be averaging 750M?

 

[TeeKay]

Not to offend, but it's going to get Hiroshima up in here.

I doubt it'd be that bad. it will be interesting to see what happens come May.

 

[Jordanstine]

With this big drop, $350 seems possible but not at all guaranteed.

If it follows pattern of FF7 (but slightly lower due to bad WOM):

3rd weekend = $23.3 ($21 weekday)
4th weekend = $10.5 ($8 weekday)
5th weekend = $5.4 ($4 weekday)
6th weekend = $3.2 ($2 weekday)

It will probably have about $336 million by the time Civil War opens. It's going to have a real slow time pushing past $350 but I think with proper fudging from WB like re-releasing it to the cheap theaters, it will eventually.

 

[Poni_Boy]

So it's DC's problem that the MCU needed 7 films to get a comparable?

No, it's DC's problem that they went all in so early. They wanted to be anti-Marvel in tone, style and world building schedule "just because" and now they're paying for it. They bet the house after one big losing hand and one barely successful one and now they're barely gonna break even. Any gambling man knows that's not how you win. It's DC's fault for not looking at WHY Marvel succeeded.

 

[Flint Marko]

"it's gonna make $1bi, it's batman and superman"

*few months later*

"it's the second movie of the franchise, it was never gonna make $1bi"

Yup. With the amount of time, money, and talent that has gone into BvS, it was all but guaranteed to be a billion dollar hit. Had it been widely regarded as at least a decent movie, it would've reached that number.

 

[Mjölnir]

No, JL and Avengers are the comp.

Iron Man and Man of Steel are the comp.

Iron Man 2 and BvS are the comp. This isn't hard.

Why are we now comparing the popularity of characters? That's a silly strawman. It's simple. BvS is the DCEU universe builder just as Iron Man 2 was MCUs.

Just because BvS is in line at the box office to destroy Iron Man 2 doesn't mean you should reach and take another film that more closely fits BvSs box office to compare. That's really lazy.

Not even close.

IM2 sets up SHIELD and some small things around the story the movie is about. Black Widow shows up, who is a minor character at that point.

BvS actually brings together the big 3 of the DC universe, making a big deal of the cinematic universe coming together right away. On a very superficial level the story is pretty similar to the Avengers. The big characters are at odds with each other before finally coming together to defeat a big threat.

It's beyond obvious that BvS is not attempting to be what IM2 was. They wanted to start their shared universe on the big note and therefor they expected big money at the BO. Much bigger than IM2.

The plan is to have this big movie where the big characters come together, then use that to build the other characters that no one cares about yet. Justice League isn't the big Avengers movie because the Avengers was about teaming up the characters they had built up. The only built up characters with the GA will be Batman, WW and Superman.

That's why WB spent so much more money, and of course expected revenue to make that a strong investment. But if you want to think that they would have aimed to compete with IM2, where doing only well in comparison meaning that they lose money, go ahead.

 

[king666]

*JL underperforms*

"It's only the 4th movie of the franchise and the BO is already bigger than Thor!"

 

[Poni_Boy]

Yup. With the amount of time, money, and talent that has gone into BvS, it was all but guaranteed to be a billion dollar hit. Had it been widely regarded as at least a decent movie, it would've reached that number.

All you have to do is see the tweets about all the empty theaters around the world and the consensus is clear. The people have spoken. It's a "pass."

 

[Upset Spideyfan]

Iron Man 2 was a solo character film and expectations were different for what shared universe movies meant in 2010 verses 2016. The comparison is really faulty.

 

[Poni_Boy]

*JL underperforms*

"It's only the 4th movie of the franchise and the BO is already bigger than Thor!"

Tragically, this is insanely accurate.

 

[JOE]

None of this helps me sleep at night, what? Again, what are the two universe building movies in both franchises? Okay, we'll give Marvel a pass and add in TIH, so Marvel's third movie v DCs second, if that's what you want. Really, at the end of the day, both movies served to follow up on the original and expand their universes. That's really all that needs to be said. If you would like to compare Marvel's 7th movie to DC Film's second, do so by all means. Whatever helps you sleep at night.

If you're going by technicalities then MOS was the building movie. (Or knocking down buildings movie )

The MCU doesn't have a film like BvS, where 2-3 heroes are together before their entire league is formed. It's not about the 2nd with the 2nd or 7th with the 7th, they're each going at their own pace with different direction so the comparison is stupid either way. That's why so many DC Marvel arguments break out, because they're trying to compare something they can't compare.

 

[jokesonm3]

"it's gonna make $1bi, it's batman and superman"

*few months later*

"it's the second movie of the franchise, it was never gonna make $1bi"

Precisely.

 

[Mysteryman]

So are all of the kids back in school or is spring break a factor in today's box office?

 

[JOE]

Speaking as somebody who has lurked since the first Raimi Spider-Man movie, the dialogue surrounding this film has pretty much followed the same trajectory as every other "dissapointment" that I've seen the fandom go through. At times I've seen almost the same arguments word for word that I saw back in 2003 with the Ang Lee Hulk both in regards to its own performance and in regards to the competition.

This will likely have some effect on Wonder Woman and Suicide Squad as far as their openings go but I think if those movies are genuinely good then their box office will reflect it.

Wonder Woman has Transformers and Despicable Me 3 to worry about. I fear for that movie right now... The response to her role in BvS has been positive, even though I didn't care for her, so I think the GA will still buy tickets... But I still feel it's going to make under 500M WW. I just can't see it being a big draw without Bats or Supes.

 

[Zero_Effect]

Source? Data? Anything besides "I liked it and so did everyone I know"?

$682 million world wide so far. And before you whine about "The drops... Oh the drops!" You said "people had spoken and its a pass" which isn't true for a movie that makes 900-1 billion.

 

[Ms. Marvel]

$682 million world wide so far. And before you whine about "The drops... Oh the drops!" You said "people had spoken and its a pass" which isn't true for a movie that makes 900-1 billion.

It probably is true if the movie is front loaded. It made a large amount of money when it opened and as a result was always going to end up with a large gross.

 

[Zero_Effect]

It probably is true if the movie is front loaded. It made a large amount of money when it opened and as a result was always going to end up with a large gross.

EVERY big movie is front loaded.

 

[Ms. Marvel]

EVERY big movie is front loaded.

The well received ones are generally not this front loaded, hence why we keep mentioning the drops.

 

[Lily Adler]

But not every big movie opens to every available market OW.

 

[Poni_Boy]

$682 million world wide so far. And before you whine about "The drops... Oh the drops!" You said "people had spoken and its a pass" which isn't true for a movie that makes 900-1 billion.

People HAVE spoken. Look at Cinemascore. Look at Twitter. Look at the RT audience rating that has dropped another 1% this weekend. Look at Instagram comments on the BvS account. Look at the empty theater comments from around the world. Look at (yes) the drops. You can't invalidate data because you don't like it. Look at the front loading. Look at China taking away 75% of its screens.

By your input Xmen Origins was a success.

Counter argument to all those points?

 

[JOE]

People HAVE spoken. Look at Cinemascore. Look at Twitter. Look at the RT audience rating that has dropped another 1% this weekend. Look at the empty theater comments from around the world. Look at (yes) the drops. You can't invalidate data because you don't like it. Look at the front loading. Look at China taking away 75% of its screens.

Counter argument to all those points?

"They aren't smart enough to understand the DCeU, they don't even know what's in front of them They can't appreciate brilliance because they're stuffed with Marvel crap... "