BvS Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction - - - - - Part 14

[jmc]

Is it possible that changes have already been made at this point? It's not like there's any reason for the public to know it immediately, especially so early after the film's release.

While JL starts filming tomorrow, I wouldn't take it for granted that nothing has been changed.

Under any normal circumstances the box office returns would have called for drastic changes. Except this isn't normal circumstances. In many ways, we are in completely uncharted waters right now. WB, like it or not, are simply going to have to fix this as they go along, and I for one have no idea how that just doesn't end up pissing everyone off. JL my end up being some strange compromise that nobody likes. As of now though I honestly think JL will end up taking a pretty significant box office hit in light of BvS. I don't care what anyone says, that film is about as sure to crack a billion dollars as I am at sprouting wings.

 

[titansupes]

Well waddaya know...Larry Fong suddenly had scheduling conflicts and has been replaced as the cinematographer of Justice League, the very day JL starts filming. Considering Fong and Snyder are usually a combo, hopefully his boss is next to have "scheduling conflicts".

http://batman-news.com/2016/04/11/justice-league-cinematographer-fabian-wagner/

That's been the case for a few weeks, actually. Pre-BvS release even. I feel like it's just a genuine scheduling issue, like how he had to miss out on MoS.

 

[hafizbat]

Under any normal circumstances the box office returns would have called for drastic changes. Except this isn't normal circumstances. In many ways, we are in completely uncharted waters right now. WB, like it or not, are simply going to have to fix this as they go along, and I for one have no idea how that just doesn't end up pissing everyone off. JL my end up being some strange compromise that nobody likes. As of now though I honestly think JL will end up taking a pretty significant box office hit in light of BvS. I don't care what anyone says, that film is about as sure to crack a billion dollars as I am at sprouting wings.

They doubled-down and now they'll pay for it. Building a house of wet cards. The thing that aggravates me most personally, is how much of a waste this is. Waste of time, money, talent, and reputation of beloved DC characters. I'd rather not have anything than have movies like MOS and BVS.

Anyways, reposting this for the new page. Nothing against Fong, but hopefully this is just the beginning of a serious shakeup. Have we started the fire?

http://batman-news.com/2016/04/11/justice-league-cinematographer-fabian-wagner/

 

[hafizbat]

That's been the case for a few weeks, actually. Pre-BvS release even. I feel like it's just a genuine scheduling issue, like how he had to miss out on MoS.

Damn. Way to burst my bubble

I just won't be able to get excited one iota as long as Snyder is there.

 

[Nemeres]

What happens if Snyder produces another expensive stinker and without the novelty of being the first on screen meeting between Batman and Superman, the box office falls to something like $600 million worldwide?

I really doubt JL could go that low, the marketing alone would make it at least feel like a big draw.

 

[jmc]

I really doubt JL could go that low, the marketing alone would make it at least feel like a big draw.

I don't know how many people are going to buy into the marketing this time around though.

 

[Poni_Boy]

I don't know how many people are going to buy into the marketing this time around though.

They're not. For one simple reason: what are they going to market? They already had Supes and Bats and WW together. The gimmick is over. Doesn't matter how good the trailers look, it'll look like 'BvS +two other guys +not The Flash from TV'

 

[hafizbat]

JL won't have the debut of a brand new Batman to save it this time. After him, who could they possibly use next as the new hype-bringer?

It's a damn tragedy that the first time the Justice Leage will be on the silver screen together, it'll be when no one wants them.

 

[jmc]

They're not. For one simple reason: what are they going to market? They already had Supes and Bats and WW together. The gimmick is over. Doesn't matter how good the trailers look, it'll look like 'BvS +two other guys +not The Flash from TV'

No gimmick to sell, poisonous directors name, 2 poorly received films previously. You're right, what are they going to market? I genuinely don't know how they go about marketing JL, they pulled the wool over so many people last time, but it's not going to fool people again.

 

[Nemeres]

I don't know how many people are going to buy into the marketing this time around though.

I think it's easy to doubt it now, but come promotion time everything kicks into high gear. I can imagine trailer bits with Flash, Atlantis, an African-American tech hero, etc, going a long way, the same way WW became a big selling point with BVS towards the end. That's not counting possible gimmicks like setting part of the film in China or whatever.

 

[jmc]

JL won't have the debut of a brand new Batman to save it this time. After him, who could they possibly use next as the new hype-bringer?

It's a damn tragedy that the first time the Justice Leage will be on the silver screen together, it'll be when no one wants them.

That is the biggest tragedy of all. What should have been the greatest moment in the entire history of DC related films is now reduced to a grovelling mess that will be on its knees begging people to watch it.

 

[jmc]

I think it's easy to doubt it now, but come promotion time everything kicks into high gear. I can imagine trailer bits with Flash, Atlantis, an African-American tech hero, etc, going a long way, the same way WW became a big selling point with BVS towards the end. That's not counting possible gimmicks like setting part of the film in China or whatever.

I don't know. Audiences will only forgive a bad series so much before they turn their back on it. I fully expect JL to make less than BvS at this point in time.

 

[Poni_Boy]

No gimmick to sell, poisonous directors name, 2 poorly received films previously. You're right, what are they going to market? I genuinely don't know how they go about marketing JL, they pulled the wool over so many people last time, but it's not going to fool people again.

And I can guarantee you at least half the articles about JL will sound like this:

"Camera Start Rolling on Follow Up to Box Office Dud BvS"

"First trailer to Critically Panned BvS Sequel Justice League Debuts"

"WB Announces Ticket Presale for JL in Effort to Front Load Another Pic"

And that's not counting the inevitable Civil War comparisons that will run through next year. I do t see JL having a big OW at all either. If I had to call it today, based solely on current intel, I'd say a 70 mil DOM opener.

 

[jmc]

And I can guarantee you at least half the articles about JL will sound like this:

"Camera Start Rolling on Follow Up to Box Office Dud BvS"

"First trailer to Critically Panned BvS Sequel Justice League Debuts"

"WB Announces Ticket Presale for JL in Effort to Front Load Another Pic"

And that's not counting the inevitable Civil War comparisons that will run through next year. I do t see JL having a big OW at all either. If I had to call it today, based solely on current intel, I'd say a 70 mil DOM opener.

Civil War, if the early critic reactions are right, is the worst possible thing that could happen to WB right now, because if that film shows a significantly better version of the exact same concept of a film they just released that's going to hurt them even more. It's entirely possible CW will shine an entirely new negative light on BvS by showing audiences 'how it's done', who may subsequently see how flawed BvS is in comparison. If it was 6 or 9 months between the films it might not be as big an issue, but BvS is still going to be fresh in peoples minds. In hindsight, releasing BvS this close to Civil War was the dumbest move WB made.

 

[kalelvis]

There are two movies coming out between BvS and JL. If they are well received it will help take the sting off of BvS. The ga isn't as tied in to analyzing every bit of box office info as the people on this board and if they like what they see in the promotional material will be willing to give it a chance.

Another factor to consider, there is nothing the American general audience likes more than a comeback.

BvS disappointed a lot of people, but a lot of people didn't even see it after the reviews. It will be played over and over on cable and regardless of its flaws will gain some new fans and even some none fans that will want to know what happens next.

No one here has a crystal ball. JL will succeed or fail on its own merits and I for one hope it is a good film.

 

[Sithborg]

Civil War, if the early critic reactions are right, is the worst possible thing that could happen to WB right now, because if that film shows a significantly better version of the exact same concept of a film they just released that's going to hurt them even more. It's entirely possible CW will shine an entirely new negative light on BvS by showing audiences 'how it's done', who may subsequently see how flawed BvS is in comparison. If it was 6 or 9 months between the films it might not be as big an issue, but BvS is still going to be fresh in peoples minds. In hindsight, releasing BvS this close to Civil War was the dumbest move WB made.

So end credits is just Cap dropping a mic?

I think it is also important to remember that JL is not going to have some nice comfort zone. The studios cleared out for BvS. JL, expect much more counter programming as well as direct competition sooner.

 

[Omegabat]

So it's made $780 million right? yeah cant see it going above $870 million at this point,Poni's $850 mil prediction was on the mark.
As for CW BvS may have given that movie a boost.

 

[kalelvis]

Another element that might set the stage for JL to overcome the BvS stigma is if the R version is better received than the theatrical cut. If it is better received you can count on it being the version shown on premium outlets like HBO that did very well with MoS.

I haven't seen the UC and for all I know it could be worse than the theatrical cut, but if it is better then there might not even be a BvS stigma for the film to overcome.

Regardless of the disappointment in the BvS box office, it will still be able to say it made more at the box office than many other cbms and for the most part the GA is not as concerned with box office or studio profits than those of us who have nothing better to do than discuss a movie we have little or no real financial stake in on an Internet forum at all hours of the night.

 

[Poni_Boy]

So it's made $780 million right? yeah cant see it going above $870 million at this point,Poni's $850 mil prediction was on the mark.
As for CW BvS may have given that movie a boost.

Yep. Sadly I think $850 is the max at this point.

And agreed. If BvS was satisfying for the GA they wouldn't be so thirsty for CW. Now I think it gave the opposite reaction.

 

[kalelvis]

I've been eagerly waiting for both movies and am one of the lucky ones who enjoyed BvS so it is a big win for me. Throw in TJB and all the other cbm and genre movies (a REAL Tarzan movie!) and I have a summer in geek heaven. I hope they all do well.

 

[Lily Adler]

Humanity must perish in the fires of creation before ever being enlightened.

 

[Poni_Boy]

Box Office: Melissa McCarthy and ‘The Boss’ Narrowly Beat ‘Batman v Superman’

Melissa McCarthy’s star power lifted “The Boss” to an estimated $23.5 million opening weekend despite bad reviews and rough word-of-mouth for the R-rated comedy.

If those projections hold, it will be enough to narrowly topple “Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice” from first place at the weekend box office. As it stands, the superhero match-up fell just short of retaining the top slot, earning $23.4 million and bringing its total after three weeks to $296.7 million. Given that this is essentially a statistical dead heat, it is possible that those positions could shift once final numbers roll in on Monday morning.

With “Spy,” “Identity Thief” and now “The Boss,” McCarthy has become one of the most reliable comic draws in the movie business

http://variety.com/2016/film/box-of...atman-v-superman-melissa-mccarthy-1201749869/

 

[flickchick85]

Dear Zod how many times are we gonna have to come into this thread and tell you guys to keep the discussion on the BvS Box Office? Not the merits of Zack Snyder, not Suicide Squad, just BvS box office. Next come infractions. Again.

 

[Agentdemon]

It's just hard to imagine any films with even a 250 million budget needing to make 900 mil + in order to break even/profit.

I agree, I imagined the same until recently. Someone else can chime in with more definite answer but for a studio film like this to be considered profitable, it needs to make double it's budget +marketing costs. Not just that it has to recoup those costs first which is what I assumed for a long time i.e. anything earned after 400 mil is profit for the production company.

So for a tent-pole films where the total (budget+marketing) ends up as ~400 million, it needs to make a worldwide box office of ~800 million. Seems kind of nuts I know and more complicated than I can explain (or fully understand), all the behind the scenes financial spending deals that are involved. But to explain partly, only a percentage of box office returns after covering budget+marketing goes to production company. The distribution and exhibitor get a (sometimes big) piece of the pie first.

The thing is though if on paper a company shows it didn't make a profit or that it's in the hole, they don't have to pay certain parties. There was a article about this using one of harry potter films as an example where it apparently lost money despite a nearly 1 billion dollar box office total.

Now hypothetically say at the end of it's run BvS's earnings are enough just to break even, according to a studio's books and what is leaked out publicly. It's not a huge concern because virtually everyone involved with it's production got paid before the film's release and they will find ways to make profits through other avenues and deals (DVD/blu-ray rental and sales, tv rights, merchandise, etc.), if they didn't already.

 

[Poni_Boy]

I agree, I imagined the same until recently. Someone else can chime in with more definite answer but for a studio film like this to be considered profitable, it needs to make double it's budget +marketing costs. Not just that it has to recoup those costs first which is what I assumed for a long time i.e. anything earned after 400 mil is profit for the production company.

So for a tent-pole films where the total (budget+marketing) ends up as ~400 million, it needs to make a worldwide box office of ~800 million. Seems kind of nuts I know and more complicated than I can explain (or fully understand), all the behind the scenes financial spending deals that are involved. But to explain partly, only a percentage of box office returns after covering budget+marketing goes to production company. The distribution and exhibitor get a (sometimes big) piece of the pie first.

The thing is though if on paper a company shows it didn't make a profit or that it's in the hole, they don't have to pay certain parties. There was a article about this using one of harry potter films as an example where it apparently lost money despite a nearly 1 billion dollar box office total.

Now hypothetically say at the end of it's run BvS's earnings are enough just to break even, according to a studio's books and what is leaked out publicly. It's not a huge concern because virtually everyone involved with it's production got paid before the film's release and they will find ways to make profits through other avenues and deals (DVD/blu-ray rental and sales, tv rights, merchandise, etc.), if they didn't already.

You're right for the most part, but you're forgetting one important thing: that $400 investment wasn't WB's money. It belongs to the shareholders. It's their money. If WB makes a profit from a movie, that profit has to justify the investment from the shareholders. Rule of thumb is a minimum of 10% return on investment. And in that context BvS ain't doing well. Here, read this:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-seen-earning-less-profit-than-superman-alone