BvS Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction - - - - - Part 14

[Pickle-El]

Possibly. The bump was better than F7's, but still below the gross. See how Wednesdays actuals go before being more confident its settled, and the weekend of course.

I am starting to think we will see a more "normal" drop from here on out going forward. The next few days compared to F7 will be very telling. I don't expect that $29 million dollar figure/40% drop of F7 for weekend 3. BvS might be able to muster 45% to 50% drop for $28.2 to $25 million weekend 3.

 

[All-Father]

It will be lucky to make 20M on weekend 3.

 

[Zing79]

I still think this movie is infinite **** at every level, and Snyder has used up what little faith I had in him and this new DCU (I am out unless 1000% proven otherwise by all forms of review on ANY subsequent DCU films), the Forbes article likely contains all you'll need to know financially - likely leading to creative choices (opinion to follow).

...so the film’s final profit works out to $126 million. Pre-tax.

So here’s the challenge for Warner Bros going forward: If the studio can contain its production costs and talent participation expenses on future Justice League films, do a bit better in holding on to the domestic audience, and then gain back the interest of overseas moviegoers–especially the massive Chinese market–then they should do just fine financially going forward.

Yes I now there are a lot of "ifs" in the article, but you can bet your life, any exec with skin in the game at WB is going to sell this same bill of goods to anyone who has a decision on their (personal) work future (see: firing and replacing them). Basically any exec who has their future tied to a board and stock price will absolutely double down with this logic, because any other move will leave them likely out of a job. Personal, selfish interests (by these execs) likely means; expect exactly this.

So anyone expecting any major changes (like myself), I feel, is in for a major major shock.

 

[Flint Marko]

126 million pre-tax? That's a bit better than what ASM 2 made Sony but still a pretty pathetic haul.

 

[Kanon]

Well, 4M is not that bad, I wonder what was up with holding the numbers...

The Boss seems to be pretty rotten, so typical Melissa McCarthy numbers expected, maybe in the low end (30M?)

Yes I now there are a lot of "ifs" in the article, but you can bet your life, any exec with skin in the game at WB is going to sell this same bill of goods to anyone who has a decision on their (personal) work future (see: firing and replacing them). Basically any exec who has their future tied to a board and stock price will absolutely double down with this logic, because any other move will leave them likely out of a job. Personal, selfish interests (by these execs) likely means; expect exactly this.

So anyone expecting any major changes (like myself), I feel, is in for a major major shock.

Not hard changes to implement. Sadly, smaller budgets might be in order too.

 

[Gerontophobe]

While the grosses aren't quite as high as F7, the holds seem to be much more stable than last week...they were all over the place.

For that last 8 days BvS has ranged from 8% to 20% lower in actuals compared to F7. Furious 7 made $93M from this point on so that would suggest BvS has between $86M (8% lower) and $75M (20% lower) left in the tank if it has indeed stabilized to around F7 percent drops. That would correlate to a $340-$355M final cume.

I think the benchmark for this weekend is $23.3M (-54.6% drop), which is 20% less than what F7 did in weekend three. If it is substantially lower, then it may well finish below GotG (despite opening 76% and over $70M higher).

 

[johnboy3434]

Well, I admit, I was way off on Tuesday. Come on, I'm still new to this! New estimates for the rest of the week and total domestic.

Wednesday: $3.04 million (-25.8%)
Thursday: $3.01 million (-0.816%)
SECOND WEEK TOTAL: $64.7 million (-64.3% without Thursday previews)

Friday: $8.13 million (+170%)
Saturday: $12.7 million (+55.9%)
Sunday: $7.7 million (-39.2%)
THIRD WEEKEND TOTAL: $28.5 million (-44.5%)

TOTAL PROJECTED DOMESTIC GROSS: $350 million

 

[lukebrodyg]

Especially since the studio is playing this grand withholding game with the numbers. Which is weird.

But why do that? The cats out of the bag in the sense that the movie has underperformed.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Sadly, smaller budgets might be in order too.

Not necessarily a bad thing. Look at Deadpool or Ant-Man. Neither movie looked cheap and together they still cost $50 million less than BvS.

Really, after watching BvS, I can't figure out what the heck they spent $250 million on. It's got, what, two set-piece battles and one car chase scene...and much of the rest is people standing around talking. I mean, the Avengers cost $30 million less and that had six heroes, a villain, an army of cgi mooks and dragons, a helicarrier and multiple fx-heavy fights. BvS had three heroes (one with no powers and another who only shows up in the last 15 minutes), a single cgi cave troll and a Batmobile. What they spent the money on mystifies me.

 

[Spiderdevil]

Hmm final a decent day for BvS

 

[third3ye]

http://www.forbes.com/sites/robcain...an-v-superman-a-good-investment/#13dea7d7d67b

Good read, thanks for sharing. IRR around 12-15% is not a solid return at all for a tentpole in Hollywood, especially since he's already including merch net revenue to offset studio overhead. There are a few numbers I think either looks high/low, but probably evens out and ends up fairly close to his net total profit. The real profitability of the film is likely in that range.

 

[SuperAl]

Not necessarily a bad thing. Look at Deadpool or Ant-Man. Neither movie looked cheap and together they still cost $50 million less than BvS.

Really, after watching BvS, I can't figure out what the heck they spent $250 million on. It's got, what, two set-piece battles and one car chase scene...and much of the rest is people standing around talking. I mean, the Avengers cost $30 million less and that had six heroes, a villain, an army of cgi mooks and dragons, a helicarrier and multiple fx-heavy fights. BvS had three heroes (one with no powers and another who only shows up in the last 15 minutes), a single cgi cave troll and a Batmobile. What they spent the money on mystifies me.

Well they also built the batmobile, several i am assuming. Created a WW suit, batman suit, batman mech suit, flash suit for the Knightmare scene, batman knightmare suit. Designed Cyborg and Aquaman which the costs would be incorporated here as well, at least for aquaman since he had a physical suit in the movie. These costumes arent cheap by the way. Also there is 30 mins cut out so who knows what else is included there.

A lot of these costs are basically going to cheapen up the future movies since they dont have to spend time on designing costumes since they are already finished. Same with the batmobile as its already being utilized in suicide squad.

Avengers basically got the opportunity to re-use a lot of old stuff in that movie.

 

[Poni_Boy]

But why do that? The cats out of the bag in the sense that the movie has underperformed.

Why do it? Because ever since the movie was released and it's OW underperformed even with adjustments that kept taking millions off expectations the studio seems to be focused on playing smoke and mirrors with what shareholders see. Because now their jobs are probably on the line.

 

[Mjölnir]

Well they also built the batmobile, several i am assuming. Created a WW suit, batman suit, batman mech suit, flash suit for the Knightmare scene, batman knightmare suit. Designed Cyborg and Aquaman which the costs would be incorporated here as well, at least for aquaman since he had a physical suit in the movie. These costumes arent cheap by the way. Also there is 30 mins cut out so who knows what else is included there.

A lot of these costs are basically going to cheapen up the future movies since they dont have to spend time on designing costumes since they are already finished. Same with the batmobile as its already being utilized in suicide squad.

Avengers basically got the opportunity to re-use a lot of old stuff in that movie.

They tend to remake the suits with new designs so that will keep on costing. All the Avengers had new suits made for both their movies (and new ones for their solo movies) and Superman had a new one in BvS. I would assume that DC will be doing the same. One obvious reason is that you can sell more new merchandise if the heroes look a bit different.

 

[Gerontophobe]

http://deadline.com/2016/04/the-bos...man-v-superman-box-office-preview-1201732456/

Melissa McCarthy will flex her comedy muscle again this weekend as her new film The Boss is going up against the third weekend of Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice. It enters into the marketplace as Batman v Superman is starting to lose screens — this after dropping 69% in its sophomore weekend to take in $51.8M. The question this weekend (as it was in its second frame) is how big the drop will be yet again? Right now we are hearing the superheroes are tracking around $27M to $28M with The Boss expected to gross somewhere in the low-to-mid $20Ms — around $24M. However, one veteran distribution exec said: “It might end up closer than some people think.”

This seems a bit high to me but then again, the Tuesday number was strong.

 

[flickchick85]

Well, The Boss is getting panned across the board, even worse than this, so I think it's got a pretty good shot at winning the weekend still.

 

[Stark Bauer]

But the big cost that's not accounted for--and it is large--is the blow that the movie has dealt to the brand and the audience's trust in the franchise and its creative team. Despite what the die-hards might wish, the movie did not catch fire with the GA and turned a lot of fans off. The numbers indicate this convincingly. Therefore, the hidden cost to the opening weekend grosses of the FOLLOWING films in the franchise is incalculable.

Great point. Without trust, there is no good reputation. A good reputation is priceless. That is a huge intangible factor in BvS' BoxOffice numbers. It is set to make 330 domestic. The bad reputation they got from the WOM and critics dwindled their potential BoxOffice total.

I speculate that with a good reputation, BvS would have made in the upper $500-600 million range.

 

[jmc]

It was also tracking higher last weekend too. I have no idea what it's going to do this weekend.

 

[Gerontophobe]

Well, The Boss is getting panned across the board, even worse than this, so I think it's got a pretty good shot at winning the weekend still.

I didn't realize the embargo had lifted. Those are some truly awful reviews (not that I really expected better). I don't see how BvS could lose, even in its third weekend, to that dumpster fire.

 

[SuperAl]

Solid Tuesday numbers, very nice.

 

[Stark Bauer]

If The Boss is projected to make $24M,

I have BvS pegged to make $18-20M.

The fact that The Boss is a comedy and can be seen as counter-programming and on the opposite end of the spectrum tone-wise and targeting a different demographic, I would say The Boss has an even higher chance than normal to come out the BoxOffice champ this weekend.

 

[Henshin]

Well, did the general audience thought like that when Bond's Quantum of Solace turned out to be an underwhelming movie ? No, the next Bond movie - Skyfall turned out to be the most successful movie ever.

Similarly, Iron Man 2 was not as well received as the first Iron Man movie, it did not get the same critical acclaim as the first one, but the next Iron Man movie, IM3 turned out to be the most successful IM movie.

Also, it's worth noting that despite the mixed and lukewarm reception of Superman Returns, Man Of Steel did well.

And lastly, Batman Begins was not exactly a huge block buster as it did not earn much still, we all know how much successful TDK was, so.

Like you say though, the quality of the first Iron Man earned people's confidence to get over IM2. Casino Royale launched Craig's Bond successfully enough for people to consider Quantum of Solace an uncharacteristic dip. Likely the same will happen with Spectre.

Seeing as both MOS and BVS were franchise launchers and have got a mixed or negative reception that doesn't inspire confidence that they will pull it back next round.

 

[Poni_Boy]

If The Boss is projected to make $24M,

I have BvS pegged to make $18-20M.

The fact that The Boss is a comedy and can be seen as counter-programming and on the opposite end of the spectrum tone-wise and targeting a different demographic, I would say The Boss has an even higher chance than normal to come out the BoxOffice champ this weekend.

I think $25 mil for The Boss is reasonable and $20 for BvS is as well. TV programming this weekend will keep a lot of potential BvS watchers at home.

 

[Spiderdevil]

Well they also built the batmobile, several i am assuming. Created a WW suit, batman suit, batman mech suit, flash suit for the Knightmare scene, batman knightmare suit. Designed Cyborg and Aquaman which the costs would be incorporated here as well, at least for aquaman since he had a physical suit in the movie. These costumes arent cheap by the way. Also there is 30 mins cut out so who knows what else is included there.

A lot of these costs are basically going to cheapen up the future movies since they dont have to spend time on designing costumes since they are already finished. Same with the batmobile as its already being utilized in suicide squad.

Avengers basically got the opportunity to re-use a lot of old stuff in that movie.

I doubt costumes take such a huge amount of money to make, I mean, sure, the mech suit should, but the rest are just high quality spandex

 

[Shikamaru]

Like you say though, the quality of the first Iron Man earned people's confidence to get over IM2. Casino Royale launched Craig's Bond successfully enough for people to consider Quantum of Solace an uncharacteristic dip. Likely the same will happen with Spectre.

Seeing as both MOS and BVS were franchise launchers and have got a mixed or negative reception that doesn't inspire confidence that they will pull it back next round.

Exactly, this is the key difference. The films between Iron Man and The Avengers may not have been anything special, but Marvel was at least off to a great start and left a great first impression. Same thing applies to Bond, and they both had two event films since then that were well done and left the audience craving more.

The same can't be said about WB. Their first film is one of the most polarizing films in CBM history, then their first event film is doing way worse. That's not even counting the fact that Marvel and Craig-Bond at their worst have yet to receive a rotten score.