BvS Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction - Part 2

[fake]

Regarding the $410 budget:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/scottme...egedly-sky-high-budget-into-a-marketing-hook/

"Allegedly", it's right there in the article headline.

 

[sf2]

400mil budget? Where did that crap come from?

for 2 movies... maybe.

 

[metaphysician]

Regarding the $410 budget:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/scottme...egedly-sky-high-budget-into-a-marketing-hook/

I thought it was something like that. Okay, I'm a serious BvS skeptic, but. . . don't bother with the "400+ M" budget number. The marketing budget gets ignored for a reason: its too riddled with funny money compared with the production budget. If the movie can double its production budget, it is probably breaking even.

 

[ManWithNoName18]

Well the final big action/event movie of the year just came out (Star Wars 7). And now we got FF 7, Ultron, Minions, Force awakens, and Jurrasic World all doing great at the Boxoffice for 2015.

How will BVS compare, wich movies that I just listed will it be over/under in terms of BO?

 

[DarthAlani]

$400 million domestic and over $1 billion worldwide is the target.

WB will also no doubt be looking to beat Civil War.

 

[Bruce Malone]

Target wise yeah that's probably close.

With Star Wars OW and following Jurasic World as well, expectations for blockbusters are now unnaturally high though.

I can see some people making it seem like BvS not opening to 200 million+ opening weekend will somehow be a disappointment.

 

[Jekecy]

If BvS doesn't do grand numbers we may have passed the genre's peak in box office dominance. Even Avengers 2 did a whopping 100 million LESS (domestically) and was surpassed by other blockbusters in a surprisingly easy fashion. That would've been considered absurd a year ago.

 

[fake]

If BvS doesn't do grand numbers we may have passed the genre's peak in box office dominance. Even Avengers 2 did a whopping 100 million LESS (domestically) and was surpassed by other blockbusters in a surprisingly easy fashion. That would've been considered absurd a year ago.

160M less domestically actually. No one expected that, but then again all franchises have their natural peaks.

TFA may be breaking all types of records left and right, but Episode 8 will definitely fall way way short of it, similar thing will happen with Jurassic World 2.

As for BvS, Good Friday will help the weekend for sure, 3 main goals for BvS OW are:
- Easter record - currently held by Furious 7 with 145M
- March OW record - currently held by Hunger Games with 152M
- DC OW record - currently held by TDKR with 160M

I will be happy if it gets the March record frankly. People seem to forget how hard it is to open at 150M+ levels.

 

[db85usa]

Target wise yeah that's probably close.

With Star Wars OW and following Jurasic World as well, expectations for blockbusters are now unnaturally high though.

I can see some people making it seem like BvS not opening to 200 million+ opening weekend will somehow be a disappointment.

Star Wars is a global phenomenon. Jurassic World was a surprise that sort of flew under everyone's radar. I'd much prefer a critically acclaimed BvS movie as it would lend to having more legs in the long run like Avatar, Skyfall, etc. I don't think BvS has enough going for it to break records. I'd put the ceiling at $175 million domestic OW but I hope I am wrong and it earns more. We'll find out more next year if the hype goes full steam.

 

[Jekecy]

I will be happy if it gets the March record frankly. People seem to forget how hard it is to open at 150M+ levels.

True enough, though when people are being bombarded with news about films like JW and TFA crushing it in record time so recently, it would be a shame if BvS isn't a part of that conversation. Especially considering its cultural relevance and how long people have hyped this meet-up for decades. Very few films have that luxury going in.

 

[fake]

True enough, though when people are being bombarded with news about films like JW and TFA crushing it in record time so recently, it would be a shame if BvS isn't a part of that conversation. Especially considering its cultural relevance and how long people have hyped this meet-up for decades. Very few films have that luxury going in.

Well, to be fair, the final marketing push has not yet begun. The 3 weeks leading up to release combined with both audience and critic reviews will tell us what it can open to. If the movie is good and the final marketing push is on point, then it can definitely exceed all expectations.

The biggest advantage BvS has currently is that there are no big movies 5 weeks before release and 3 weeks after release. Frankly, the only movie post Deadpool and Zoolander 2 which looks likely to even gross 100M+ domestic is Zootopia. The other movies look like major bombs in the making or too small of a release.

BvS weekend will see Greek Wedding 2 likely opening to around 20-25M with a 2000 theater count, Disappointments Room may not even make that release date thanks to Relativity's recent troubles and I Saw the Light is only releasing in 3 cities. Of the holdovers, Allegiant will fall to mid-teens post a 40M-ish opening, and only Zootopia may be in double digits.

Everything is set up perfectly, now the movie and the marketing just need to deliver.

 

[jokesonm3]

You guys know what'll be one of the biggest factors for Batman v Superman's box office? China.

China is the key to securing a successful foreign box office run, and how much do i predict BvS will make in China? i say $200m + $250m why? Because lets take a look at these two bad films, first off is Terminator Genysis in which we all know how bad that film is, still made over $100m in China, another film is Warner Bros own San Andreas starring the Rock, another bad film that's made over $100m+ in china alone, now if bad action films like that make that can make that much money you can imagine how much BvS would make in China.

Plus as crazy as this sounds i believe that if Man of Steel was released in the 25th March 2016 in the BvS date, and has no competition, easter opening and the growth of the Chinese Market then i honestly, no joke, believe it would've made $800m - $900m mainly because of the lack of competition that Man of Steel suffered from in June no longer applies in March and if those two bad films mentioned above made $100m+ in China based on Man of Steel's own $63m from China then i honestly believe it would have boosted MoS's $668m to and extra $150m to $200m extra.

So with that you can imagine what BvS will make, Snyder films may not always fair with critics but they do damn good at the box office sometimes.

 

[Jekecy]

International grosses will surely expand, but I just don't think this type of movie is going to resonate worldwide in the way other blockbusters have. The reason why even poor films like Genysis get to be so big internationally is because it takes very little effort to be invested in the spectacle. Mainly because it's all it is.

If I'm right, BvS is going to go for something deeper, and that sort of presentation isn't worldwide friendly. DC films have been doing very poorly (relatively speaking) in that area, and I think that's purely down to how they can't simplified for international audiences.

 

[fake]

International grosses will surely expand, but I just don't think this type of movie is going to resonate worldwide in the way other blockbusters have. The reason why even poor films like Genysis get to be so big internationally is because it takes very little effort to be invested in the spectacle. Mainly because it's all it is.

If I'm right, BvS is going to go for something deeper, and that sort of presentation isn't worldwide friendly. DC films have been doing very poorly (relatively speaking) in that area, and I think that's purely down to how they can't simplified for international audiences.

One major reason they are basically going for an "every country at once" release this time (neither MoS nor TDKR opened everywhere at the same time) is to take advantage of the long Easter holiday weekend in most of Europe and some countries in Asia and South America. It is releasing on Thursday in a lot of countries to have a bigger Good Friday bump as well.

Again, all comes down to the final marketing push IMO. You need to get audiences into the theater before you can have them spread good word of mouth.

 

[sf2]

You guys know what'll be one of the biggest factors for Batman v Superman's box office? China.

China is the key to securing a successful foreign box office run, and how much do i predict BvS will make in China? i say $200m + $250m why? Because lets take a look at these two bad films, first off is Terminator Genysis in which we all know how bad that film is, still made over $100m in China, another film is Warner Bros own San Andreas starring the Rock, another bad film that's made over $100m+ in china alone, now if bad action films like that make that can make that much money you can imagine how much BvS would make in China.

Plus as crazy as this sounds i believe that if Man of Steel was released in the 25th March 2016 in the BvS date, and has no competition, easter opening and the growth of the Chinese Market then i honestly, no joke, believe it would've made $800m - $900m mainly because of the lack of competition that Man of Steel suffered from in June no longer applies in March and if those two bad films mentioned above made $100m+ in China based on Man of Steel's own $63m from China then i honestly believe it would have boosted MoS's $668m to and extra $150m to $200m extra.

So with that you can imagine what BvS will make, Snyder films may not always fair with critics but they do damn good at the box office sometimes.

are you familiar with the China market?

 

[jokesonm3]

are you familiar with the China market?

Honestly barely with its constant change and growth per year, its a hard thing to measure so i'm basic my answer based on speculation.

 

[rogbngp]

You guys know what'll be one of the biggest factors for Batman v Superman's box office? China.

China is the key to securing a successful foreign box office run, and how much do i predict BvS will make in China? i say $200m + $250m why? Because lets take a look at these two bad films, first off is Terminator Genysis in which we all know how bad that film is, still made over $100m in China, another film is Warner Bros own San Andreas starring the Rock, another bad film that's made over $100m+ in china alone, now if bad action films like that make that can make that much money you can imagine how much BvS would make in China.

Plus as crazy as this sounds i believe that if Man of Steel was released in the 25th March 2016 in the BvS date, and has no competition, easter opening and the growth of the Chinese Market then i honestly, no joke, believe it would've made $800m - $900m mainly because of the lack of competition that Man of Steel suffered from in June no longer applies in March and if those two bad films mentioned above made $100m+ in China based on Man of Steel's own $63m from China then i honestly believe it would have boosted MoS's $668m to and extra $150m to $200m extra.

So with that you can imagine what BvS will make, Snyder films may not always fair with critics but they do damn good at the box office sometimes.

It's interesting to me that the home video sales market (streaming, DVD, blu ray) isn't factored in. For Man of Steel, for example, the DVD (through April, 2014) and blu-ray sales (through July, 2014) adds another $106,411,166 (source) to move he total sales to $774,410,684--but that doesn't include profits from streaming.* And when 4k streaming becomes increasingly standard, a lot of films that people love will get a second wave of streaming sales (at about $10 a pop).

The merchandising (toys, school lunch boxes, backpacks, notebooks, you name it) and product placement (add another $170M) sales receipts is also another metric that I would like to see in calculating total profit. When you add in toys, etc., MoS easily takes in over a billion because we don't have numbers for physical products and streaming yet, and we're already at $944,410,684 with theater ticket, DVD and blu ray (measured only through spring and summer of last year), and product placement sales.


*Streaming sales are probably robust judging from DVD and blu ray performance. THR: 'Man of Steel' Debuts at No. 1 on Home Video Sales Chart

 

[Val_Zod]

International grosses will surely expand, but I just don't think this type of movie is going to resonate worldwide in the way other blockbusters have. The reason why even poor films like Genysis get to be so big internationally is because it takes very little effort to be invested in the spectacle. Mainly because it's all it is.

If I'm right, BvS is going to go for something deeper, and that sort of presentation isn't worldwide friendly. DC films have been doing very poorly (relatively speaking) in that area, and I think that's purely down to how they can't simplified for international audiences.

Are we just going to ignore the bombastic nature of the last trailer? While BvS will tackle some deeper, more philosophical topics, it's still going to have alot of spectacle, and action. Just having Doomsday in it assures that.

 

[Steyin]

I'm gonna go with:

$440 Million DOM
$1.3-5 Billion WW tops.

Pretty much in the same ballpark as AoU.

 

[Silliminite]

International grosses will surely expand, but I just don't think this type of movie is going to resonate worldwide in the way other blockbusters have. The reason why even poor films like Genysis get to be so big internationally is because it takes very little effort to be invested in the spectacle. Mainly because it's all it is.

If I'm right, BvS is going to go for something deeper, and that sort of presentation isn't worldwide friendly. DC films have been doing very poorly (relatively speaking) in that area, and I think that's purely down to how they can't simplified for international audiences.

Maybe the change in tone for the latest trailer was a good thing then. Also, didn't TDK also have a lot more depth than your typical blockbuster? Did pretty well at the B.O.

 

[Iceman]

Maybe the change in tone for the latest trailer was a good thing then. Also, didn't TDK also have a lot more depth than your typical blockbuster? Did pretty well at the B.O.

Did well for Batman but not huge compared to other blockbusters. ($469m)

 

[Joeyjojo72]

I'm gonna go with:

$440 Million DOM
$1.3-5 Billion WW tops.

Pretty much in the same ballpark as AoU.

This is a conservative but reasonable projection.

 

[Silliminite]

Did well for Batman but not huge compared to other blockbusters. ($469m)

True, compared to other blockbusters, it doesn't have a very good domestic to overseas gross ratio. In contrast, although not exceptional, MoS has a better domestic to overseas ratio which, I think, bodes well for BvS.

 

[Iceman]

True, compared to other blockbusters, it doesn't have a very good domestic to overseas gross ratio. In contrast, although not exceptional, MoS has a better domestic to overseas ratio which, I think, bodes well for BvS.

Superhero movies used to be much more US focused but it's getting better now. Like you say I think BvS will improve in that respect. Plus it's more an event movie than any single superhero film and many overseas markets pile in on pretty much every event film.

 

[Silliminite]

Superhero movies used to be much more US focused but it's getting better now. Like you say I think BvS will improve in that respect. Plus it's more an event movie than any single superhero film and many overseas markets pile in on pretty much every event film.

Yeah. On paper, this is DC's biggest film yet. Let's see if it delivers.