BvS Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction - Part 2

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

Btw you know it was CinemaBlend that originally posted that clickbait article right? Not Forbes i trust their predictions.

http://www.cinemablend.com/new/Predicting-Top-10-Highest-Grossing-Movies-2016-103227-p10.html

Trouble accessing site for whatever reason. If it was the one you posted last week then I wasn't overly impressed anyway. Really, no need to get worked up over financial predictions from an apparent fanboy site.

 

[Zarex]

Yeah no. BvS is gonna break a billion no question.

I understand that you really, really want it to break a billion no question. But folks who don't regularly post on superhero websites are going to determine if it does, and as of right now we have no idea what they are going to do. We're all just guessin'.

 

[Tensor]

I understand that you really, really want it to break a billion no question. But folks who don't regularly post on superhero websites are going to determine if it does, and as of right now we have no idea what they are going to do. We're all just guessin'.

Funny thing is, the folks who don't post on superhero websites, aka the general audience, are more than pumped to see it. The latest trailer made sure of it. I've had personal experience of reactions IRL. Other people online have had similar experiences too.

 

[I Am The Knight]

What people need to realize is that this film is not going to play as a regular MOS sequel. It is it's own beast, so I don't really think that people who hated MOS will affect the BO at all. Even the most ardent haters won't pass on this one anyway. If anything they will be there opening weekend. Morbid curiosity is a powerful thing

 

[joeshmow014]

*waves* Contrary to popular belief, not everybody is going to see BvS. Everybody who hated MoS, for starters. . . and don't pretend its some trivial amount. Movies don't have that harsh of a drop from their opening weekend without at least some goodly chunk of the audience disliking them, and spreading the word.

That might have been the case if it was just a singulair MOS sequel and just another solo Superman movie...but don't even try to front that the people who didn't like MOS are not going to go see the historically significance of BvS...Batman and Superman in the same movie together "EVER" that's pretty ground braking let alone the first ever appearance of WW theactrically that's pretty impressive as well...every body is going to want to see this movie...remember Batman by himself guarantees you a billlion with the inclusion of Supes and WW and the forming of the Trinity and JL later every one is going to be curious to see how it all comes together...I'm upping my OW prediction from 180+ million to 220 million OW and a WW total of 1.8 billion when it's all said and done.

 

[jokesonm3]

Are we really undermining the sheer hype this film has coupled with the solid release date and lack of competition it possesses?

Guys it's BATMAN VS SUPERMAN, the hype should be self explanatory at this point.

 

[Zarex]

Furious 7 opened last year around the same time BvS will release this year, the last month of March on easter and all throughout April have been proven to be financially successful in the past from films like F7 to TWS.

And the only ones angry in this day an age of Affleck as Batman and Gal as Wonder Woman are fanboys, the general audience is hyped the hell up for their appearance.

So with an intense amount of hype, an easter opening weekend AND clear skies till the release of Civil War, it would be a big surprise if this film DIDN'T go past a billion at the BO.

Furious 7 had the same tragic advantage as TDK along with a fan base built up over 6 films and a crap ton of fan favorite characters. Most of the major players in BvS are strangers. The names are certainly iconic - but we haven't met them. The hype will be enough to get a big opening weekend, but if the film gets an MOS style reception I can see a similar drop off in week 2.

My guess is that the film will do extremely well, but a billion dollar BO is an awful lot to expect out of this film.

 

[Zarex]

Are we really undermining the sheer hype this film has coupled with the solid release date and lack of competition it possesses?

Guys it's BATMAN VS SUPERMAN, the hype should be self explanatory at this point.

No one is undermining anything, just that the BO expectations seem to be getting a tad bit unreasonable. We saw the same thing last year with AOU, and while the film did well folks were extremely disappointed that it didn't double up The Avengers at the BO.

BATMAN VS SUPERMAN gets you a very big opening week. That's it. We'll see what happens in April.

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

Furious 7 had the same tragic advantage as TDK along with a fan base built up over 6 films and a crap ton of fan favorite characters. Most of the major players in BvS are strangers. The names are certainly iconic - but we haven't met them. The hype will be enough to get a big opening weekend, but if the film gets an MOS style reception I can see a similar drop off in week 2.

My guess is that the film will do extremely well, but a billion dollar BO is an awful lot to expect out of this film.

I don't know, to me this will at least double MoS considering who's in it. I'd bet the WOM and critical reception is much better this time around. Also less competition then other CBM's in 2016. We're all just speculating here, but this feels like it will be massive. Time will tell.

 

[Mike5575]

Watch wb release a Bat solo against Captain Marvel or BP now. smh.

DC/WB is too scared to go up against Cap or Iron Man. Going up against two newbies would just expose DC as a bunch of bullies that hate diversity.

 

[jokesonm3]

Furious 7 had the same tragic advantage as TDK along with a fan base built up over 6 films and a crap ton of fan favorite characters. Most of the major players in BvS are strangers. The names are certainly iconic - but we haven't met them. The hype will be enough to get a big opening weekend, but if the film gets an MOS style reception I can see a similar drop off in week 2.

My guess is that the film will do extremely well, but a billion dollar BO is an awful lot to expect out of this film.

We live in a time where last year, five films not only past the billion mark, they absolutely obliterated it, receiving box office that only a film as big as the original Avengers could achieve in the past, and not all of them were critically acclaimed on RT:

Minions, 55%

Jurassic World: 71%

Avengers: Age of Ultron: 74%

Furious 7: 82%

Star Wars 7: 94%

So a majority of these films weren't critically acclaimed yet still destroyed the box office.

And here's the thing about Man of Steel's second week drop off, originally it had an Opening Weekend of $116M, then the second week happened where in the heart of summer in mid June, two other films opened up, Monsters University, a sequel to a Pixar classic as loved as films like the Incredibles or Finding Nemo, opens up with an OW of 80M, thats a good part of the family audience gone, also World War Z another hyped film had a $63M OW.

So both those films had a combined OW of $143M, and all MoS had in terms of legacy was that it lived off the small financial success of its franchise predecessors Superman Returns, so not just Man of Steel but literally any other solo CBM film not named, Batman, Iron Man or Avengers would survive that without facing some serious financial damage.

Yet MoS didn't have a crazy drop off or anything, at the end of its run it still made more Domestically then every superhero film between its release till Ant-man excluding AOU and GOTG.

Not to mention that with the trailer views it has received up to the 10's of millions all the way to its inane social media traction.

I can safely say that this film has to be Transformers 4 level bad to make under a billion, and i highly believe that.

 

[jokesonm3]

DC/WB is too scared to go up against Cap or Iron Man. Going up against two newbies would just expose DC as a bunch of bullies that hate diversity.

And opening Daredevil against BvS would be the absolute symbol of Machoism and Manliness that is Marvel.

And not to start a Marvel vs DC war im gonna leave it there....

 

[Vampyr]

1.3 b

 

[TripleJ]

DC/WB is too scared to go up against Cap or Iron Man. Going up against two newbies would just expose DC as a bunch of bullies that hate diversity.

I wouldn't say they were scared. It was only a matter of time before one moved - because simply it's a bad business deal. The suits (at both Disney and WB) care about making more profit, not so much about other things (it's not the pissing contest some fans make it out to be).

 

[joeshmow014]

DC/WB is too scared to go up against Cap or Iron Man. Going up against two newbies would just expose DC as a bunch of bullies that hate diversity.

WB decision to move BvS was a smart business move...it's all about maximizing profit which is exactly what they did with the move to March.

 

[Spider-jedi]

DC/WB is too scared to go up against Cap or Iron Man. Going up against two newbies would just expose DC as a bunch of bullies that hate diversity.

i dont think thats right. i believe that both companies want each other to succeed cuz that would mean that people are't tried of superhero movies. And this whole nonsense of daredevil opening the same day as BVS means nothing. i can watch both the same day.

 

[JOE]

Nobody is scared of the other, it's just stupid because they'll both suffer from it.

 

[ConnorKon-El]

I expected MOS to make 600-700 million. That came true.

I expect BvS to make 1-1.2 billion.

Remember when Sony wanted TASM2 to reach a billion? That never seemed realistic. You have two of the most iconic superheroes of pop culture in the same film. I think a billion is realistic.

 

[Zarex]

Nobody is scared of the other, it's just stupid because they'll both suffer from it.

Marvel isn't going to suffer for DD season 2 releasing on the same date as BvS. They've already been paid.

 

[Jekecy]

WB decision to move BvS was a smart business move...it's all about maximizing profit which is exactly what they did with the move to March.

It was indeed a smart business move, but a dumb move when they didn’t follow through with it. If I recall correctly, Marvel had locked in that date months before (which at that point was not known to be CA3). DC made a power play for that same date, which started all the news cycles going on which would flinch first. It was around the time GOTG started crushing everything that DC fell back. It was a small hit to their pride, and they really shouldn’t have made it unless they were absolutely sure they were sticking with it.

 

[king666]

I expected MOS to make 600-700 million. That came true.

I expect BvS to make 1-1.2 billion.

Remember when Sony wanted TASM2 to reach a billion? That never seemed realistic. You have two of the most iconic superheroes of pop culture in the same film. I think a billion is realistic.

 

[False Prophet]

C'mon. The movie's going to make a billion. Batman alone ensures that. I don't get these ridiculous arguments to the contrary.

 

[Zarex]

C'mon. The movie's going to make a billion. Batman alone ensures that. I don't get these ridiculous arguments to the contrary.

BvS is the sequel to a film that at best got a mixed response and introducing a recast Batman and a relative newbie as WW. To suggest that it is guaranteed to make a billion at the BO is ridiculous.

 

[False Prophet]

BvS is the sequel to a film that at best got a mixed response and introducing a recast Batman and a relative newbie as WW. To suggest that it is guaranteed to make a billion at the BO is ridiculous.

BvS is a sequel to a movie that grossed 600M internationally despite the controversy and had a positive audience score, adds the second most marketable and iconic superhero character in all existence (Spiderman being the first) whose name alone guarantees success, and introduces the most well-known female superhero to the big screen in a environment that's begging for more female heroic characters.

And, despite what some of the lunatics on comic book boards would have you believe, the trailers didn't quell the hype. I'm not sure if it added to it, but it really didn't diminish it. Every reputable BO analysis I've seen predicts 1B worldwide gross. Every predictive indicator on the sites I've been on says this movie will be big. Fanboys can't remake reality with their ******** over a movie they didn't like. Sphincters aren't magic rings that can erase professional quantitative analysis.

You can think what you want, but I'm reasonably sure a billion will be reached. Because, to be honest, reaching the billion dollar mark ain't the impossible feat it used to be. If the movie sucks, it might not get much more than a billion, but it should still reach it.

It's making it to 1.5B and beyond that the real test.

 

[Black Narcissus]

I expected MOS to make 600-700 million. That came true.

I expect BvS to make 1-1.2 billion.

Remember when Sony wanted TASM2 to reach a billion? That never seemed realistic. You have two of the most iconic superheroes of pop culture in the same film. I think a billion is realistic.

My guess as well. A bit more perhaps, but that would be gravy.