BvS Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction - Part 2

[Val_Zod]

Those aren't Super Bowl worthy, IMO.

Spoiler

Showing Bizarro punch Supes in the face would be though! t:

Superbowl trailers traditionally don't show too much new, they are used to spread awareness on a film. Not everyone has seen the other trailers, let alone even know a Batman/Superman movie is happening. A trailer that just shows some new action scenes, newly edited along with new music is just enough. MOS third trailer was essentially that and got everyone pumped for the movie before it released.

 

[jokesonm3]

This gives me strong hope that BvS will do some really big numbers in China.

Most anticipated movies of 2016 in China, Douban is China's Fandango equivalent.

China Box Office ‏@ChinaBoxOffice 3h3 hours ago
Top 5 foreign films Douban users look forward to in '16: Warcraft, X-Men, Suicide Club, Batman Vs Superman, Pride + Prejudice + Zombies

https://***********/ChinaBoxOffice/status/687260908796686336

 

[jokesonm3]

I predict $250M - $300M in China.

Just need a confirmation on its release date and local competition opening against it.

Including any Chinese holidays in April that can either help or hurt BvS in China.

 

[revenant78]

A little late to the conversation. What do you think it needs to do in order to be considered a success? Does it have to hit that $1B mark?

 

[jokesonm3]

It's Batman and Superman and Wonder Woman all in one film.

Opening on the profitable time of easter with literally weeks of no major competition till Civil War and backed by tens of millions of views per trailer.

So unless it's Fantastic Four level bad it'll be near impossible for this film to gross under a billion with all the factors it has to support it.

 

[metaphysician]

A little late to the conversation. What do you think it needs to do in order to be considered a success? Does it have to hit that $1B mark?

Depends whether you mean "make money" or "satisfy WB expectations." I suspect that, yes, it does need to break a billion to minimally satisfy the executives hopes for the franchise. They'd probably be satisfied with lowering box office numbers if those were accompanied by high critical and audience approval, though ( 900M WW and 90% RT certainly bodes better for the spinoffs and sequels than 1.10B WW and 65% RT ).

 

[jokesonm3]

I'd rather have the latter in that situation.

 

[Val_Zod]

I'd rather have the latter in that situation.

Why, I'd take a potentially better movie over it making couple hundred million at the box office. Or are you secretly a WB employee passing off as a fan?

 

[mithravishnu]

I prefer $ than RT as long as I love the movie.t:

My wish (not prediction)

OW: 170+
Dom: 450+
OS :500+
China: 200
WW: 1.2B

 

[Doc Samson]

Honestly, I think if this film would've happened years ago, before the general masses became somewhat numb to superhero movies, it could've been huge. It will still be a massive success if it's anywhere close to being good...I just think the novelty of it in 2016 isn't the same as the Avengers enjoyed in 2012.

 

[sf2]

if it is good it will draw in crowd. as simple as that.

 

[JOE]

My modest hopes for this movie.

OW: 170M +
DOM: 500M +
OS: 750M (150M China)
WW: 1.25B

Do I think it can do more, definitely. The China number is a wild card. 150M seems like a modest prediction, but look what happened to TFA. People thought Star Wars would cash in there and it did nothing of the sort. Whereas Furious 7 made 390M. Who knows what happens there.

 

[jokesonm3]

I'm noticing that most of everyone's predictions here have their domestic prediction high but their international prediction is not that high, like a close to 50/50 split, wonder why?

 

[TripleJ]

My modest hopes for this movie.

OW: 170M +
DOM: 500M +
OS: 750M (150M China)
WW: 1.25B

Do I think it can do more, definitely. The China number is a wild card. 150M seems like a modest prediction, but look what happened to TFA. People thought Star Wars would cash in there and it did nothing of the sort. Whereas Furious 7 made 390M. Who knows what happens there.

That's because SW isn't really that all popular in Asia. That's not the case with Sups or Bats.

Of course, we will have to wait and see how this movie does.

 

[Silliminite]

That's because SW isn't really that all popular in Asia. That's not the case with Sups or Bats.

True.

 

[GreenKToo]

I look for BvS to open close to 200 mill dom, if not slightly more.

 

[Val_Zod]

One thing to consider, the film is being screened a week before the release. While many fans that are going are likely going to be on a high, thus not too overly critical, I feel like if the film doesn't deliver that would open the floodgates of negativity, which would hurt it's opening weekend.

 

[jokesonm3]

One thing to consider, the film is being screened a week before the release. While many fans that are going are likely going to be on a high, thus not too overly critical, I feel like if the film doesn't deliver that would open the floodgates of negativity, which would hurt it's opening weekend.

Well the good thing about those going to watch BvS a week early were dedicated fans that were willing to travel to their theaters and book their seats all for a trailer.

They're all definitely gonna enjoy the film unless it downright sucks, and the hype that they build is the word of mouth this film needs for a really strong Opening Weekend, so it was a smart move by WB/DC to do this.

 

[mithravishnu]

I'm noticing that most of everyone's predictions here have their domestic prediction high but their international prediction is not that high, like a close to 50/50 split, wonder why?

Because WB is lazy to market their products in overseas. MoS released only in 24+ regions. So it earned less compared to Marvel's "global" releases. Thats why everyone is keeping their overseas predictions low.

 

[Silliminite]

Because WB is lazy to market their products in overseas. MoS released only in 24+ regions. So it earned less compared to Marvel's "global" releases. Thats why everyone is keeping their overseas predictions low.

What do you mean by "regions"? I'm just not very familiar with release patterns. And any idea how BvS compares?

 

[jokesonm3]

Well just like any other mediumly hyped superhero films films like say Captain America: The Winter Soldier, both those films opened in about 20+ countries on the same weekend mainly because their big but not say Avengers big.

Batman v Superman at the moment according to IMDB is currently scheduled to open in 46 markets all on the same Easter Weekend with to be announced soon, this type of wide release is mainly saved for films that the studio are confident with the fact that it'll be one of the highest grossing films of the year.

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt2975590/releaseinfo?ref_=tt_ov_inf

 

[Silliminite]

Well, according to IMDb, MoS wasn't far off that release pattern either, opening in around 37 countries on the same weekend; eventually screening in a total of 79 countries....

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0770828/releaseinfo?ref_=tt_ov_inf%20

 

[jokesonm3]

Actually 32 on the same week, doubt film festivals count as official releases.

 

[Baneis8feettall]

I prefer $ than RT as long as I love the movie.t:

My wish (not prediction)

OW: 170+
Dom: 450+
OS :500+
China: 200
WW: 1.2B

Quite modest.

 

[Silliminite]

Actually 32 on the same week, doubt film festivals count as official releases.

You're right. Still, MoS eventually released in a total of 72 countries, which isn't far off The Avengers' 79 (http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0848228/releaseinfo?ref_=tt_ov_inf ) so I don't see why Marvel's releases are considered "global" but DC's aren't?

And if you consider opening on the same weekend as a plus point, Avengers had quite a staggered release and it didn't seem to hinder its total gross.

Again, I'm not an expert in release patterns, so maybe I'm missing something.