BvS Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction - Part 8

[LucDisfilm19]

Marvel studios doesn't release their films in every market at the the same time. Films will release in the UK or AUS before they are released in the U.S. or China.

Age of Ultron opened in 11 markets worldwide, Batman V Superman opened in 61 to 66 markets worldwide. Opening in more territores gives you a change of having a much bigger opening weekend #.

Well, apparently according to China Box Office on Twitter, Civil War will be rumored to open on May 6th, the same day as it's USA release.

 

[Reel-Man]

Exactly! Great post!

I would say more but I might get in trouble.

Saw it last night again and still liked it and people clapped at the end and there were some whistles. Haha.

Make sure to drop by the multiple viewings thread and share your experience and take a look at the poll.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Is the audience score already a lock? Seriously asking, I'm not sure when we can consider it "final" (as in, if it changes up or down, it will be minimal). Shouldn't we expect until tomorrow at least? or middle of next week?

It's a fair question but I doubt BvS' score drops to SM3 territory (51%) which still managed a 2.2x multiplier.

 

[#1Batmanfan]

The day to day drops aren't good. Other films Sat numbers usually go up with Sunday dropping. BvS are huge icons and this film shouldve performed better. It should've cracked 200 million. Im not saying 170 is bad cause its not. Im just saying considering who the film is about its no doubt the negative reviews hurt it. I see it topping off between 300-360 mil domestically. Im really hoping it beats Deadpool, cause it was a better film. Itll be a sad day if BvS loses to Deadpool. Next weekend will be determining factor.

the force awakens and jurrassic world all dropped on saturday so....

 

[Logan0327]

damn BVS has made 424 million WW already lol

 

[FunkMiller]

The day to day drops aren't good. Other films Sat numbers usually go up with Sunday dropping. BvS are huge icons and this film shouldve performed better. It should've cracked 200 million. Im not saying 170 is bad cause its not. Im just saying considering who the film is about its no doubt the negative reviews hurt it. I see it topping off between 300-360 mil domestically. Im really hoping it beats Deadpool, cause it was a better film. Itll be a sad day if BvS loses to Deadpool. Next weekend will be determining factor.

It's going over Deadpool no problem.

 

[Ms. Marvel]

Translation:

RT audience score between 90-95% = 2.7x mulitplier or higher

RT audience score between 70-85% = 2.3 or 2.4x multiplier

RT audience score around 50% = 2.2 multiplier

Cap 1 74%= 2.7x multiplier
Thor 1 76% = around 2.8x multiplier
Ant-Man 87% = 3.16x multiplier

RT audience score is not a good indication of legs.

 

[Gerontophobe]

So some are bringing up T4 as an example of a poorly received movie doing very well and crossing $1B. I don’t totally agree that it is a fair comparison (T4 had an A- CinemaScore compared to a B for BvS) but I figured I’d crunch the international numbers for legs. Once adjusted, the legs on T4 were a very respectable 3.02 which on paper would get BvS well past $1B WW. However, the major caveat is T4 did gangbusters in China which really skews the numbers. BvS is not going to do nearly so well there based on OW returns so for T4 the non-China overseas legs were 2.69 which is slightly better than what BvS will need (a 2.44).

An important takeaway is that different markets had very different legs. Latin America and Asia had fantastic legs for T4 while Europe was a little more muted and the UK was awful (1.65). Once again, we’ll have a better idea once individual markets are reported.

 

[Ms. Marvel]

Marvel studios doesn't release their films in every market at the the same time. Films will release in the UK or AUS before they are released in the U.S. or China.

Age of Ultron opened in 11 markets worldwide, Batman V Superman opened in 61 to 66 markets worldwide. Opening in more territores gives you a change of having a much bigger opening weekend #.

Oh right I suspected that's what you meant, just wanted to be sure.

 

[NoLaNitE007]

425 million globally so far and breaking records.

I thought it would be around 400.

Great start!

 

[NoLaNitE007]

damn BVS has made 424 million WW already lol

Yep and going up!

 

[writer0327]

Translation:

RT audience score between 90-95% = 2.7x mulitplier or higher

RT audience score between 70-85% = 2.3 or 2.4x multiplier

RT audience score around 50% = 2.2 multiplier

So what does an RT score of 29% get?

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Cap 1 74%= 2.7x multiplier
Thor 1 76% = around 2.8x multiplier
Ant-Man 87% = 3.16x multiplier

RT audience score is not a good indication of legs.

For huge opening weekends (120+ m) it is.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

So what does an RT score of 29% get?

That's the critic score.

I used the audience score (73%).

 

[Kanon]

I wish Star Wars TFA had the RT score (I feel) it deserved. We would have now a good reference of a huge event movie with bad reviews and big BO expectations...

Wich brings me... maybe The Phantom Menace is a good reference? Only 20% drop, but not a massive OW compared to today standards, but it was #1 that year

 

[third3ye]

$424m WW opening gives this a really good chance of breaking a billion, almost guaranteed. I imagine DOM will be 2.1-2.2x the $170m, foreign should settle at 65% of total, that would break a billion. Guess I'll have to eat crow on my $900m prediction.

 

[FunkMiller]

I can't wait for Civil War to come out to see how it compares. If nothing else, this year will be fascinating box office-wise

 

[FunkMiller]

[BLACKOUT][/BLACKOUT]

$424m WW opening gives this a really good chance of breaking a billion, almost guaranteed. I imagine DOM will be 2.1-2.2x the $170m, foreign should settle at 65% of total, that would break a billion. Guess I'll have to eat crow on my $900m prediction.

900 mil is where I am. Still not ready to change my mind until the next week's figures come in.

 

[Kanon]

So some are bringing up T4 as an example of a poorly received movie doing very well and crossing $1B. I don’t totally agree that it is a fair comparison (T4 had an A- CinemaScore compared to a B for BvS) but I figured I’d crunch the international numbers for legs. Once adjusted, the legs on T4 were a very respectable 3.02 which on paper would get BvS well past $1B WW. However, the major caveat is T4 did gangbusters in China which really skews the numbers. BvS is not going to do nearly so well there based on OW returns so for T4 the non-China overseas legs were 2.69 which is slightly better than what BvS will need (a 2.44).

Can we use TF4 for Transfomers Age of Extinction? I thought it was Terminator Salvation

An important takeaway is that different markets had very different legs. Latin America and Asia had fantastic legs for T4 while Europe was a little more muted and the UK was awful (1.65). Once again, we’ll have a better idea once individual markets are reported.

Action, effect driven movies aren't as badly affected in non english territories by story telling issues. It's weird, 'cause I don't want to think people go to movies even when they don't understand what is being spoken, but that's what happens

 

[combocaz]

425 million globally so far and breaking records.

I thought it would be around 400.

Great start!

This is why i woke up smiling.

 

[writer0327]

Question for the room:

Imagining the potential that this film should have, would you say hitting that magical $1B number is meeting the expectation? Or if it maximizes its potential, should we be talking about $1.5-$1.8B?

 

[JtheDreamer]

damn BVS has made 424 million WW already lol

It opened in 66 territories though. There's really nothing left after that.

 

[JtheDreamer]

Question for the room:

Imagining the potential that this film should have, would you say hitting that magical $1B number is meeting the expectation? Or if it maximizes its potential, should we be talking about $1.5-$1.8B?

It should be the latter. There is no way on this planet WB was projecting to barely come in at $1 billion when they decided to greenlight this film.

 

[Flint Marko]

Question for the room:

Imagining the potential that this film should have, would you say hitting that magical $1B number is meeting the expectation? Or if it maximizes its potential, should we be talking about $1.5-$1.8B?

If it hits a billion, that's around expectations at the moment. Anything less than that will be a disappointment. I'm not sure what they were hoping for but 1 billion is the floor. There's absolutely no way it will reach 1.5. After seeing the movie twice and getting a feel for it's reception, this thing tops out around 1.2 billion maximum.

It opened in 66 territories though. There's really nothing left after that.

Didn't realize that. Gives me more hope that this can sputter out and crash before it crosses 1 billion, but I don't think that's going to happen.

 

[Karelia]

Seeing how well it's doing brought a smile to my face. I really enjoyed it. R