BvS Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction - Part 8

[Ms. Marvel]

This seems to have slightly worse WOM than Man of Steel which I would describe as good-to-mixed. This seems pure mixed to me. The word of mouth isn't FFINO level though.

 

[Doctor Octopus]

These numbers aren't surprising. It's the novelty factor and the inherent curiosity of the years long question of seeing these two together.

Next week and even the numbers on the weekdays will be more telling.

Agreed. It also have no competition in cinema now.

 

[Wylie Times]

But wasn't most of the movie's tickets sold weeks in advance before the RT score reared it's head?

I don't know if MOST of the tickets were sold before it's release but a lot of them were. The early ticket sales were at a similar rate to Age of Ultron. AOU opening weekend #'s were lower than Bvs, but as others have pointed out AOU didn't open in as many theaters worldwide as BvS.

 

[Ms. Marvel]

I don't know if MOST of the tickets were sold before it's release but a lot of them were. The early ticket sales were at a similar rate to Age of Ultron. AOU opening weekend #'s were lower than Bvs, but as others have pointed out AOU didn't open in as many theaters worldwide as BvS.

What do you mean?

 

[writer0327]

I think it is plainly obvious that people were going to see this film regardless of what the critics had to say about it. We are talking about a movie with Batman and Superman, with Wonder Woman for the first time on the silver screen. That's a critic-proof combination for OW. Does that mean that WB won't pay any attention to the critical reception, especially because this film is supposed to launch the JLA series of films?

Think about it....if the overall feeling is pretty much that they've missed the boat on what should have been a slam dunk, home run with the two most popular comic book characters in the world, what will give the GA confidence to go and see Aquaman? The Flash? Cyborg?

 

[Jumpman]

As happy as I am with these numbers, most of this marketing numbers. Most of it.

If this thing is close to 700 million by the end of next weekend globally, then yeah, middle finger in the air and Snyder stays.

Still, next week/weekend is where it's at. This next week will be glorious (sarcasm).

 

[kguillou]

There's probably a lot of people, too, who will re-watch this movie just to see WW again in the third act. Everyone is raving about her, so, ironically, Batman v Superman is saved by Wonder Woman. lol

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

RT Audience Scores

TDK - 94%
Deadpool - 92%
Avengers - 91%
TDKR - 90%

AOU - 84%
IM3 - 79%
BvS - 73%
IM2 - 72%

SM3 - 51%


Multiplier (Legs):

TDK - 3.3x
Avengers - 3x
TDKR - 2.8x
Deadpool - 2.7x

AOU - 2.4x
IM2 - 2.4x
BvS -???
IM3 - 2.3x

SM3 - 2.2x


Notice a trend?

 

[Gerontophobe]

My two cents on the domestic numbers: I kind of doubt that BvS will hit that $170M OW figure WB is pushing. That’s assuming a 27% Sunday drop which seems too generous. The rest of the industry is figuring a 30% drop (for $168.5M) which seems more likely to me (Furious 7 dropped 28.9% last Easter). I’m guessing WB was extra liberal so they could crow about their top OW ever, but just under HP7-PII is still a very good opening figure. However, Deadline is projecting legs of 2.25 (not very good) for a final total north of $380M.

 

[Reel-Man]

I hope this movie exceeds expectations next week, just to spite the people here who have been at it since release, arguing how this should crash and burn because of reason a-z. it will be a complete meltdown. I don't care which way it goes but it's hilarious how some are acting like accountants who's life depends on this crashing and burning. They really need to prove the Internet how right they are. Seriously, is it that important to prove an argument to people on the damn internet? Life goes on and this won't affect it one bit. Unless of course you spend every day spitting hate on here for hours end. Well then have fun being angry.

 

[Wylie Times]

Transformers proved RT doesnt matter. Event films are event films. I'm still rolling with my 1.1 billion projection.

Transformers only proved Rotten Tomatoes doesn't matter worldwide. The last transformers film "only" made around $245 million domestically. The last two Transformers films have made most of their money overseas and underperformed domestically.

 

[xxxxxx29]

RT Audience Scores

TDK - 94%
Deadpool - 92%
Avengers - 91%
TDKR - 90%

AOU - 84%
IM3 - 79%
BvS - 73%
IM2 - 72%

SM3 - 51%


Multiplier (Legs):

TDK - 3.3x
Avengers - 3x
TDKR - 2.8x
Deadpool - 2.7x

AOU - 2.4x
IM2 - 2.4x
BvS -???
IM3 - 2.3x

SM3 - 2.2x


Notice a trend?

Which will get BvS over a billion.

 

[Baba3231]

I hope this movie exceeds expectations next week, just to spite the people here who have been at it since release, arguing how this should crash and burn because of reason a-z. it will be a complete meltdown. I don't care which way it goes but it's hilarious how some are acting like accountants who's life depends on this crashing and burning. They really need to prove the Internet how right they are. Seriously, is it that important to prove an argument to people on the damn internet? Life goes on and this won't affect it one bit. Unless of course you spend every day spitting hate on here for hours end. Well then have fun being angry.

Lol this. It's amazing how many people suddenly appeared out of nowhere once the reviews came out.

 

[FunkMiller]

RT Audience Scores

TDK - 94%
Deadpool - 92%
Avengers - 91%
TDKR - 90%

AOU - 84%
IM3 - 79%
BvS - 73%
IM2 - 72%

SM3 - 51%


Multiplier (Legs):

TDK - 3.3x
Avengers - 3x
TDKR - 2.8x
Deadpool - 2.7x

AOU - 2.4x
IM2 - 2.4x
BvS -???
IM3 - 2.3x

SM3 - 2.2x


Notice a trend?

I think it'll be 2.2x or even 2.1. Puts it about 900 - 950.

 

[Gerontophobe]

So what are the chances BvS crosses $1B WW? Well, let’s assume the Deadline projection of a final domestic tally of $380M holds true. That would leave $620M for the international market to make for BvS to hit ten figures. It opened to $254M overseas in basically every market so that actually makes the math pretty easy; it would need a 2.44 multiplier to cross $620M. I suspect it will be close to that number as MOS had a true multiplier (adjusted for staggered openings) of 2.46 while IM3 was 2.56. (For the record, TDKR was a fantastic 3.31 overseas but that seems well out of reach.) I’ll be able to put together a more rigorous analysis once the various international markets are broken down but I wouldn’t say $1B is a lock or unreachable; I’m sticking with my ¯\_(&#12484_/¯ from yesterday.

 

[Baba3231]

It'll make a bil but it'll limp there as opposed to flying past it.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

RT Audience Scores

TDK - 94%
Deadpool - 92%
Avengers - 91%
TDKR - 90%

AOU - 84%
IM3 - 79%
BvS - 73%
IM2 - 72%

SM3 - 51%


Multiplier (Legs):

TDK - 3.3x
Avengers - 3x
TDKR - 2.8x
Deadpool - 2.7x

AOU - 2.4x
IM2 - 2.4x
BvS -???
IM3 - 2.3x

SM3 - 2.2x


Notice a trend?

Translation:

RT audience score between 90-95% = 2.7x mulitplier or higher

RT audience score between 70-85% = 2.3 or 2.4x multiplier

RT audience score around 50% = 2.2 multiplier

 

[combocaz]

I woke up with a smile on my face.

 

[Kanon]

http://filmschoolrejects.com/news/batman-v-superman-box-office.php

Some highlights, regarding the box office as a massive win of WB marketing over negative buzz.

the lowest Rotten Tomatoes score of any film other than BvS in the top 10 domestic opening weekends of all-time is Jurassic World at 72%. Everything else is above 75%. Batman v Superman earned only 29% positive reviews.

a ‘B’ grade from Cinemascore is considered to be pretty bad. Only a few movies ever drop into the ‘C’ range (this includes Zoolander 2, Triple 9 and The Witch in 2016 so far) and is usually a sign that films have been marketed poorly. Having set the wrong expectations for what a film is can yield a very low Cinemascore. For everything else, there’s a range from A+ to B-. Batman v Superman getting a ‘B’ is not a good sign. It’s the same grade audiences gave films like Green Lantern and Catwoman. Even Superman Returns earned a ‘B+’.

For more recent Cinemascore history, consider The Divergent Series: Allegiant, which opened last week to $29m and earned a ‘B’ grade. It fell 67% in its second weekend of release, down to $9.5m.

 

[NoLaNitE007]

I hope this movie exceeds expectations next week, just to spite the people here who have been at it since release, arguing how this should crash and burn because of reason a-z. it will be a complete meltdown. I don't care which way it goes but it's hilarious how some are acting like accountants who's life depends on this crashing and burning. They really need to prove the Internet how right they are. Seriously, is it that important to prove an argument to people on the damn internet? Life goes on and this won't affect it one bit. Unless of course you spend every day spitting hate on here for hours end. Well then have fun being angry.

Exactly! Great post!

I would say more but I might get in trouble.

Saw it last night again and still liked it and people clapped at the end and there were some whistles. Haha.

 

[Wylie Times]

What do you mean?

Marvel studios doesn't release their films in every market at the the same time. Films will release in the UK or AUS before they are released in the U.S. or China.

Age of Ultron opened in 11 markets worldwide, Batman V Superman opened in 61 to 66 markets worldwide. Opening in more territores gives you a change of having a much bigger opening weekend #.

 

[Kanon]

RT Audience Scores

TDK - 94%
Deadpool - 92%
Avengers - 91%
TDKR - 90%

AOU - 84%
IM3 - 79%
BvS - 73%
IM2 - 72%

SM3 - 51%


Multiplier (Legs):

TDK - 3.3x
Avengers - 3x
TDKR - 2.8x
Deadpool - 2.7x

AOU - 2.4x
IM2 - 2.4x
BvS -???
IM3 - 2.3x

SM3 - 2.2x


Notice a trend?

Is the audience score already a lock? Seriously asking, I'm not sure when we can consider it "final" (as in, if it changes up or down, it will be minimal). Shouldn't we expect until tomorrow at least? or middle of next week?

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Which will get BvS over a billion.

I think it'll be 2.2x or even 2.1. Puts it about 900 - 950.

The multiplier is based on opening weekend and decides how much a movie will make domestic.

If Cyborg opens to 50 m and only makes 100 m domestic, it only had a 2x multiplier.

According to my "chart", BvS will have 2.3x or 2.4x multiplier which gives it between 390 and 410 m domestic.

 

[Nokio]

The day to day drops aren't good. Other films Sat numbers usually go up with Sunday dropping. BvS are huge icons and this film shouldve performed better. It should've cracked 200 million. Im not saying 170 is bad cause its not. Im just saying considering who the film is about its no doubt the negative reviews hurt it. I see it topping off between 300-360 mil domestically. Im really hoping it beats Deadpool, cause it was a better film. Itll be a sad day if BvS loses to Deadpool. Next weekend will be determining factor.

 

[NoLaNitE007]

There are some big misconceptions in these threads:

#1 Being the suggestion China doesn’t know Batman and Superman, two of the most recognized characters in the entire world next to Mickey Mouse. The early Chinese returns confirm this.

#2: Batman vs Superman was a dumb idea. Really? It was a good enough idea to sell comic books for over 75 years and the initial returns suggest otherwise.

#3: Affleck was a horrible choice for Batman. Um, not according to EVERYONE WHO SAW THE FILM, including even the hypo critics.
I could go on and on but seriously.