BvS Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction - Part 8

[wobbly]

So it'll need a billion to break even?

Hard to say without knowing just how much WB spent on marketing globally.

XM: Days of Future past for example had a reported production budget of $200mil, and took nearly $750mil WW. Sounds good?

However, though that ww gross is 3.5 x the production budget the actual net profit for Fox (after home release too) was around $77mil (by no means chump change but less than you'd think). The marketing costs for theatrical release there came to around $130mil (ww).

See this breakdown for how that one worked:

http://deadline.com/2015/03/x-men-days-of-future-past-profit-box-office-2014-1201389620/

So if we guess WB have spent around $380mil (including marketing) and following the DOFP scale then they would need around the $1 billion mark or more WW for break even on the theatrical run alone. Merch and after sales (home rentals, dvd's blu-rays etc) do add more to the kitty of course and can tip them into profit should the theatre run fall short.

If it gets to the billion in the theatres depends on legs. Not having great competition will help but if the GA aint generally bowled over it may struggle to get there.

The % drop next weekend will tell a lot.

 

[Mjölnir]

That's pretty cool Poni. Always intrigued by the works of the people within the industry. There's so many aspects and people involved.

You can also see a big example of this at Marvel, where Marvel Studios now longer isn't even it's separate division at Marvel but in fact separate from Marvel altogether. Kevin Feige answers directly to Disney studio chief Alan Horn.

 

[Zarex]

That incarnation of Batman had to earn its way to the billion dollar club. If Batman himself was that influential in producing a billion dollar movie, then BB would've made a billion.

People aren't in love with the general character of Batman. They're in love with a particular portrayal of Batman. So people didn't love Batman. They loved Bale's Batman. Batfleck has to earn that trust. So no, it shouldn't have been a guaranteed $1.5 billion movie.

Agreed. The Avengers film featured about a half dozen previously established fan favorite characters, three of which had starred in well received origin tales. Cavill's Supes had a divisive introduction, Batflek was replacing the wildly successful Bale version and the last woman to portray WW in live action is eligible for Social Security. I think a BvS that wowed the critics would still have struggled to reach Avengers numbers.

My expectation was that this film would land in the $900M-$1.1B range, and that is where it is headed. The concern, though is more for the next DCEU films. Unless Wondy is a Deadpool sized BO smash WB is going to need to do a bit more work before they are ready for a JL film.

 

[Reel-Man]

You can also see a big example of this at Marvel, where Marvel Studios now longer isn't even it's separate division at Marvel but in fact separate from Marvel altogether. Kevin Feige answers directly to Disney studio chief Alan Horn.

Who used to be at WB until the alleged shouting match and power struggle with Lorenzo Di Bonaventura. This was during the World's Finest production with Wolfgang Petersen if I recall correctly. t:

 

[JtheDreamer]

165M actual, I was about dead on accurate with my original prediction. This couldn't even beat Potter for largest WB opening, and barely comes above TDKR without 3D.

50-65M would be my prediction for weekend 2.

Man, some posters were dancing around and getting offensive with the supposed "170.1" making rounds yesterday. My, my how things have changed with actuals.

 

[Poni_Boy]

You can also see a big example of this at Marvel, where Marvel Studios now longer isn't even it's separate division at Marvel but in fact separate from Marvel altogether. Kevin Feige answers directly to Disney studio chief Alan Horn.

And now DC Films is a subdivision of DC Entertainment. Which is a subdivision of Time Warner. The pieces of the pie (profit) get smaller the higher up you go.

 

[Tony Stark]

You can also see a big example of this at Marvel, where Marvel Studios now longer isn't even it's separate division at Marvel but in fact separate from Marvel altogether. Kevin Feige answers directly to Disney studio chief Alan Horn.

Yeah they moved it around because Perlmutter was interfering with Feige being able to do business with Fox to make a Sony like deal for X-men.

Perlmutter did alot of good at Marvel, but he's not a movie guy, he just doesn't have experience there and he was starting to get too micromanaging of Feige.

Glad that Disney sided on Feige's side of things.

 

[Unbreakable Lex]

It doesn't need to be compared to anything, but comparisons will be made.

It certainly does have significant aspects of The Avengers since this is a team up movie, where two of the three superheroes had more star power than the Avengers before the MCU built them up. The same goes for the other JL members who will be relative unknowns and not have been built up in movies before JL. DC is also trying to combine things faster than Marvel did. The comparison is pretty expected and even warranted on this level.

If the question really is if this movie needs to compare to the Avengers financially to be successful, then the answer of course is no. I think a good amount of people thought it could have been though.

Ironman 2 was the setup movie just like BvS is. The only reason it's being compared to Avengers is because Ironman 2 didn't include Spider-man, Hulk and Wolverine. But make no mistake, the two movies are the world builders and should be compared as such because they are early universe movies that setup the larger world.

Justice League is the team up film. Justice League and Avengers is the comparison. That much is simple.

 

[JtheDreamer]

Hard to say without knowing just how much WB spent on marketing globally.

XM: Days of Future past for example had a reported production budget of $200mil, and took nearly $750mil WW. Sounds good?

However, though that ww gross is 3.5 x the production budget the actual net profit for Fox (after home release too) was around $77mil (by no means chump change but less than you'd think). The marketing costs for theatrical release there came to around $130mil (ww).

See this breakdown for how that one worked:

http://deadline.com/2015/03/x-men-days-of-future-past-profit-box-office-2014-1201389620/

So if we guess WB have spent around $380mil (including marketing) and following the DOFP scale then they would need around the $1 billion mark or more WW for break even on the theatrical run alone. Merch and after sales (home rentals, dvd's blu-rays etc) do add more to the kitty of course and can tip them into profit should the theatre run fall short.

If it gets to the billion in the theatres depends on legs. Not having great competition will help but if the GA aint generally bowled over it may struggle to get there.

The % drop next weekend will tell a lot.

This post should be stickied.

 

[Tony Stark]

Man, some posters were dancing around and getting offensive with the supposed "170.1" making rounds yesterday. My, my how things have changed with actuals.

Well I knew when that number came out the actuals were going to be lower, but I thought maybe 168. But this film pretty much tanked on Sunday, which pretty much reinforces the "B" Cinemascore.

But they were estimating a lower drop that Furious 7 and I thought, no way is that going to happen. but this is like a 37% drop for Sunday! That's horrible even by Easter Sunday standards. i thought maybe 30 or 31.

 

[FunkMiller]

Hah I got it right too. Woot. I'm sticking with 70% drop next weekend

70% is where I've always been on it. Don't see any reason to change that prediction as yet.

 

[def28]

That incarnation of Batman had to earn its way to the billion dollar club. If Batman himself was that influential in producing a billion dollar movie, then BB would've made a billion.

People aren't in love with the general character of Batman. They're in love with a particular portrayal of Batman. So people didn't love Batman. They loved Bale's Batman. Batfleck has to earn that trust. So no, it shouldn't have been a guaranteed $1.5 billion movie.

For the most part they are. It's just that Batman and Robin happened. ONe of the worst comic films of all time, and that hurt Begins and Batmans rep. Which is why it's important JL doesn't have the same reception as BvS does, two poorly received films with Batman ain't good for DC.

Unless they went full Schumacher, any movie with Batman in the title was gonna make bank.

 

[Mjölnir]

Ironman 2 was the setup movie just like BvS is. The only reason it's being compared to Avengers is because Ironman 2 didn't include Spider-man, Hulk and Wolverine. But make no mistake, the two movies are the world builders and should be compared as such because they are early universe movies that setup the larger world.

Justice League is the team up film. Justice League and Avengers is the comparison. That much is simple.

It stands on both sides, which is my point. I agree that it builds like IM2 did, but on the other hand it has far more special value of bringing two of the most iconic superheroes together for the first time. IM2 had no sensation to it at all, it just continued with Stark and set up some smaller things around it, of which none was nearly as large as having WW be in BvS.

 

[Poni_Boy]

FYI those those who want to see it WB just revealed a deleted scene with [BLACKOUT]darkseid[/BLACKOUT]. It's in the deleted scene thread

 

[Spiderdevil]

So $500m give or take. It's already made $420m in 4 days give or take.

Well it's complete budget is around 400Mil, maybe more. It has never 'made' 420mil, studios get only 50% of the domestic gross and even lesser of the overseas, so that 420Mil is basically something like 200mil

Basically it would have to make 800Mil to break even, even if it makes a billion, it would be a profit of like 80Mil on an investment of about 400Mil, not entirely good business but it will keep DCEU afloat

Though other factors like Merchandise, Sponsors, TV deals, Merchandise etc come into play as far as earnings are concerned, but it's healthy for a movie to earn back it's investment and make a tidy profit in the box office itself

 

[Plaidchuck]

So we back to dancing on this things grave?

 

[TDKR1977]

FYI those those who want to see it WB just revealed a deleted scene with [BLACKOUT]darkseid[/BLACKOUT]. It's in the deleted scene thread

Can't find the thread.

 

[Poni_Boy]

Can't find the thread.

Sorry meant the Bluray thread http://forums.superherohype.com/showthread.php?t=511763&page=3

 

[MadVillainy]

So we back to dancing on this things grave?

Well it's not DOA so I wouldn't say this thing has been put in the grave

But for sure in the day of superhero movies galore, 3D, IMAX and inflated ticket prices it is really sad that there is a good deal of doubt when it comes to a movie starring Batman and Superman getting to a billion

 

[FunkMiller]

FYI those those who want to see it WB just revealed a deleted scene with [BLACKOUT]darkseid[/BLACKOUT]. It's in the deleted scene thread

Hmmmm. Not massively sure that's actually him. Certainly doesn't look a thing like he does in the comics.

 

[Zero_Effect]

FYI those those who want to see it WB just revealed a deleted scene with [BLACKOUT]darkseid[/BLACKOUT]. It's in the deleted scene thread

That is not [BLACKOUT]darkseid[/BLACKOUT]

 

[Poni_Boy]

Hmmmm. Not massively sure that's actually him. Certainly doesn't look a thing like he does in the comics.

It is. They didn't want Thanos comparisons

 

[Tony Stark]

Ironman 2 was the setup movie just like BvS is. The only reason it's being compared to Avengers is because Ironman 2 didn't include Spider-man, Hulk and Wolverine. But make no mistake, the two movies are the world builders and should be compared as such because they are early universe movies that setup the larger world.

Justice League is the team up film. Justice League and Avengers is the comparison. That much is simple.

Iron Man 2 is nothing comparable to this film. The only thing IM2 had in it was Black Widow (who is an auxiliary character mainly in Avengers) and Nick Fury for two scenes. That's not comparable to putting the two most iconic comic book characters together for the first time on screen.

The only thing that IM2 had over this is that Robert Downey was far more popular at the time than Affleck or Cavil are.

 

[TDKR1977]

Sorry meant the Bluray thread http://forums.superherohype.com/showthread.php?t=511763&page=3

Are we sure that's who we think it is?

ETA That's

Spoiler

Steppenwolf

 

[JtheDreamer]

It is. They didn't want Thanos comparisons

Wow, that's a radical departure. Not sure I like it at all, but I did wonder what they would do about the Thanos similarities.