Box Office: Rogue One VS Civil War

[Darepool]

By your logic a downward trend for Rogue One's opening indicates we're getting Star Wars fatigue, but the fact that Age of Ultron and Civil War both made less than Avengers 1 (with CW making less than AOU despite Spider-Man and better reviews) doesn't show superhero fatigue?

Historically, most franchises tend to have diminishing returns with sequels. That's kinda why for a long time sequels in general had a reputation for not being as good or successful as the originals in most cases.

Civil War isn't an Avengers film really, it wasn't marketed as one. The guy who reports on the Chinese box office for pro.boxoffice made reference to the impact that distinction can make in terms of box office.

Secondly, the Russo's are different directors then Whedon and not enough of this fact has been emphasized imo. They are great technically and brilliant with the action, but they don't do crowd pleasers like Whedon can in terms of mixing all the elements to reach and satisfy the widest audience possible. He just has that knack.

Last but not least, do you expect the next (actual) Avengers film to make less then CW and prove the fatigue narrative?

 

[MbJ]

Read what I wrote. I didn't say there's a superhero fatigue. I said it was incredibly disingenuous to claim that Rogue One making less than the last Star Wars movie (one of the highest grossing films of all time) is proof people are sick of Star Wars and that the revival of the franchise is a failure, but somehow the same thing happening to Marvel's movies isn't.

Like I just said, sequels failing to outgross the predecessor, especially when the predecessor was a huge smash hit, is something that literally happens all the time with movie franchises.

 

[Darepool]

Read what I wrote. I didn't say there's a superhero fatigue. I said it was incredibly disingenuous to claim that Rogue One making less than the last Star Wars movie (one of the highest grossing films of all time) is proof people are sick of Star Wars and that the revival of the franchise is a failure, but somehow the same thing happening to Marvel's movies isn't.

Like I just said, sequels failing to outgross the predecessor, especially when the predecessor was a huge smash hit, is something that literally happens all the time with movie franchises.

True. Different factors come into play. In the case of AoU, the only reason it didn't make more then the Avengers was simply because that it wasn't as good. I have ZERO doubt it would have made more if it had been of similar quality. Spider-Man 2 on the other hand was actually better, but didn't make as much as the first. Episode 8 will likely fall short of TFA like Empire did ANH, and on and on. Quality can be an issue, or it may not be. Release dates, loss of curiosity, etc, etc.

The Avengers is out of reach at this point in time.

 

[Zant]

The Avengers and Episode 7 are the peak for both franchises, no matter the quality of future installments.

Looks like Civil War will win overseas while Rogue One will win domestic.

 

[Darepool]

The Avengers and Episode 7 are the peak for both franchises, no matter the quality of future installments.

I think so.

 

[BoredGuy]

Idk, Infinity War could make a metric s**t ton o' money
Guardians and the Avengers together alone will be a huge draw

If the Defenders show up.. it could literally make all the money

 

[Darth_Spock]

So there's no such thing as comic book fatigue, despite how many we've gotten in the past few years alone, but Star Wars fatigue would come sooner, despite them not coming out as frequent?

What?

More like "Prequel" fatigue despite many people saying this film was better than TFA.

 

[InCali]

Idk, Infinity War could make a metric s**t ton o' money
Guardians and the Avengers together alone will be a huge draw

If the Defenders show up.. it could literally make all the money

If IW1 is really good, IW2 could outdraw the first Avengers movie, but the ducks would all have to line up. IW2 would have to be pretty killer. People seem to like the final "parts" (even Feige has said each is basically standalone).

 

[Darepool]

It's possible certainly, I just wouldn't bet on it at this time.

In truth, I wouldn't be surprised if Vol 2 makes more then the next two Avengers films. I think all will be over a billion, but I think Vol. 2 reaches a wider array of the GA.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

The Avengers and Episode 7 are the peak for both franchises, no matter the quality of future installments.

Looks like Civil War will win overseas while Rogue One will win domestic.

Star Wars has "peaked" 3 times already over 40 years.

 

[InCali]

It's possible certainly, I just wouldn't bet on it at this time.

In truth, I wouldn't be surprised if Vol 2 makes more then the next two Avengers films. I think all will be over a billion, but I think Vol. 2 reaches a wider array of the GA.

I think it'll be almost impossible for the standalone GotG to make more than IW1 or 2. I mean, they'll be IN IW1 and 2 so GotG fans will certainly go to IW.

I think Vol 2 would have to just shred and IW would have to be pretty poor movies to be eclipsed by the standalone.

 

[Zant]

Star Wars has "peaked" 3 times already over 40 years.

LOL fair enough, but Episode 7 will remain its peak for a long time, unless Disney gives the franchise a 10 -15 years break and that's not happening with Disney in charge.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

LOL fair enough, but Episode 7 will remain its peak for a long time, unless Disney gives the franchise a 10 -15 years break and that's not happening with Disney in charge.

The nature of inflation will have more of a say then anything.

 

[Flint Marko]

Way too early to say when a mega franchise like Star Wars or Marvel has "peaked" but you do you.

 

[Zarex]

I wouldn't be surprised if the Avengers-Guardians crossover during Infinity War created a new franchise peak.

 

[Lord]

How are box office predictions going for Rogue One? Is it set to make in least a Billion?

Way too early to say when a mega franchise like Star Wars or Marvel has "peaked" but you do you.

Depends. So far, Episode VII and The Avengers have both become peaks of their franchises due to how many records they broke and how much their success will guide the franchises from now on. Those franchises can still hit new peaks, but that still will be a difficult task.

The Marvel Cinematic Universe has pretty much gotten a massive boost since The Avengers 1, but has yet to reach those heights again for example, even if some predicted Avengers 2 or Civil War would possibly do so. I would say Infinity War part II has a chance of hiting another peak, as does Episode IX if the brand expands more in the chinese market. But for now, the only film i can actualy see giving Avatar 1 and Titanic a chalenge is Avatar 2.

 

[cleverusername8]

I'm gonna go with Rogue One.

Star Wars is just huge and has a longer, decades-long standing presence in the movie arena than the 8 year old MCU. My dad as a 59 year old gets way more excited about new Star Wars films than superhero movies and he's not even strictly a GA member. He and his brother collected comics back in the 60s when they were young and has a decent knowledge of the characters. Yet he's more indifferent those movies in comparison to these new Star Wars movies these past two years.

That's just one anecdotal example, but I think it sort of demonstrates the attitude non-hardcore fans have of the two franchises and what they'll be more motivated to go see.

 

[Iceman]

I think Star Wars has a much higher max potential than any MCU films (outside of the IWs which are still a bit unpredictable). If we hear reviews saying one of the next set of SW films are better than ESB than I think we'd see a TDK type boost, which in SW terms is a whole lot bigger.

 

[scarlet-witch]

How is Rogue One holding up to Civil War now? I believe I went with CW earlier in the thread.

 

[Erzengel]

Rogue One will surpass Civil War domestically next week.

Still $500M back from Civil War in the foreign market but it hasn't opened in China yet.

 

[Silver Surfer]

Unfortunately Star Wars is no match for Marvel in China, Ultron out-grossed SW7 by almost a $100 million over there. I think Rouge One takes the Domestic crown, but Civil War ends the year as the overall highest grosser.