Box Office Numbers (& Competition)

[Carp Man]

Wednesdays #'s are in. $ 539,278. Updates below.

 

[Advanced Dark]

So we made 6.7 last weekend so I imagine a drop of around 45% again. So let's say 3.5 million with another 500k today. Should end up on Monday around 110 million.

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

So we made 6.7 last weekend so I imagine a drop of around 45% again. So let's say 3.5 million with another 500k today. Should end up on Monday around 110 million.

Wasnt $110 its budget? Meaning any more more made domestic after that is profit?

 

[ultimatefan]

The movie´s doing fine domestically, it´s not doing that great overseas, though, with 75m, given that it already opened in pretty much every market, which is usual for superhero movies for whatever reason. I guess in the end it´s gonna make close to two times the production budget. Not a bad result, not an exceptionally good one either.

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

^Yeah, you've pretty much hit the nail on the head there. Wonder how much Sony wanted it to make before they greenlit a sequel?

 

[Advanced Dark]

The movie´s doing fine domestically, it´s not doing that great overseas, though, with 75m, given that it already opened in pretty much every market, which is usual for superhero movies for whatever reason. I guess in the end it´s gonna make close to two times the production budget. Not a bad result, not an exceptionally good one either.

Your 75 million international total is off. It's like 84 million right now.

 

[ultimatefan]

Your 75 million international total is off. It's like 84 million right now.

Got it from www.boxofficemojo.com

 

[superion]

BO Mojo still says a little over $75 million as of Sunday the 11th of March. Where did you get the $84 million number. That would be a pretty good take for a the weekdays.

Does anyone know what the story is with the budget? BO Mojo says $110 but every article I read about GR says it was $120. Which is the correct number?

 

[Carp Man]

Thursdays #'s are in. Update below. $ 567,518. Here weekly breakdown :

Week 1 $ 58,690,097
Week 2 $ 22,385,602
Week 3 $ 14,084,307
Week 4 $ 8,860,233

 

[Advanced Dark]

^ Ok I I was confusing the worlwide 181-185 million with the international. My brain dropped the one off. However Mojo's #'s are off what Hollywood Reprter and Variety were saying. They had it around 77 million as of last Sunday. Mon-Fri surely brought in 4 million. Say another 6.5 million for the weekend so we should still be just under 90 million by Monday.

http://www.superherohype.com/forums/showpost.php?p=11359078&postcount=702

 

[superion]

I hope GR reaches $200 million world-wide, any less than that and i think we could be struggling for a sequel.

It will definately make over $200 million worldwide. Its already at $181 million but it really had to do somewhere over $250 million WW to be considered a bonafide hit given its budget.

 

[Advanced Dark]

225-235 is the range it should get to. The DVD & TV rights are where all the profit comes rolling in and it will be alot despite all the thieving pirates the DVD & industry is still doing well, and the "legal" downloading is growing fast.

 

[ultimatefan]

^ Ok I I was confusing the worlwide 181-185 million with the international. My brain dropped the one off. However Mojo's #'s are off what Hollywood Reprter and Variety were saying. They had it around 77 million as of last Sunday. Mon-Fri surely brought in 4 million. Say another 6.5 million for the weekend so we should still be just under 90 million by Monday.

http://www.superherohype.com/forums/showpost.php?p=11359078&postcount=702

Let´s wait till we have the actual numbers from this week.

 

[Advanced Dark]

I will wait but while I'm waiting I can guess. Or is that a bannable offense.

 

[Advanced Dark]

Looks like a 65% drop for 300 and GR pulls in over 4 million. We'll see if this holds.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Zack Snyder’s 300 (Warner Bros) will suffer a less than heroic 65% drop in its second weekend. After a $9 million Friday - passing $100 million domestic - the Spartan war epic is expected to deliver $25 million over the 3-day frame. That means that by Monday morning, 300 will have banked an epic $121.2 million.

The poorly-reviewed Wild Hogs (Buena Vista) continues to enjoy strong word-of-mouth, and the boomer ensemble comedy scored another $5 million on Friday, which should translate to a better-than-expected weekend gross of $18 million. That’s just a 35% drop for the Travolta/Lawrence/Allen/Macy buddy movie, and Hogs new total domestic gross will be $103.1 million.

I arrive at these Exclusive FantasyMoguls.com Early Friday and 3-Day Estimates by tracking raw data from key east coast locations and generating projections based on comparable historical titles. Those numbers are refined through conversations with key studio sources.

Three new films opened today with mixed results. The Sandra Bullock thriller Premonition (Sony) generated a solid $5.25 million opening day, and it will finish with an estimated 3-day of $15.2 million. If these numbers hold up, this will be the best Bullock opening since Divine Secrets of the Ya-Ya Sisterhood debuted with $16.1 million in 2002. Premonition will enjoy a better opening than Two Weeks Notice ($14.3 million), Crash ($9.1 million), Miss Congeniality 2 ($14 million) and The Lake House ($13.6 million).

Universal’s killer doll movie Dead Silence opened with a very soft $2.25 million on Friday, and it will limp to a disappointing $5.9 million for the weekend. From James Wan and Leigh Wannell, the creative team behind the Saw films, this horror pic is neck-and-neck with holdover Bridge To Terabithia (Buena Vista) in the 3-day estimates, and it is the latest 2007 bomb in the genre following disasters like The Hitcher, Primeval, Blood & Chocolate and The Abandoned, to name a few.

Chris Rock’s I Think I Love My Wife (Fox Searchlight) is the biggest loser managing just $1.5 million on opening day putting it on-target for a $4.5 million weekend and a 6th place finish. Rock co-wrote and directed this film, and it is his 2nd stint as a director following 2003’s Head of State ($13.5 million opening - $38.1 million domestic). It may be back to supporting roles for the former Oscar host after this misfire.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASYMOGULS.COM EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. 300 (Warner Bros) - $9 million
2. Premonition (Sony) – $5.25 million
3. Wild Hogs (Buena Vista) - $5 million
4. Dead Silence (Universal) – $2.25 million
5. Bridge To Terabithia (Buena Vista) - $1.5 million
6. I Think I Love My Wife (Fox Searclight) - $1.5 million
7. Ghost Rider (Sony) - $1.3 million
8. Zodiac (Paramount) - $895,000
9. Norbit (Paramount/Dreamworks) - $852,000
10. Music & Lyrics (Warner Bros) - $707,000

EXCLUSIVE FANTASYMOGULS.COM EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. 300 (Warner Bros) - $25 million
2. Wild Hogs (Buena Vista) - $18 million
3. Premonition (Sony) – $15.2 million
4. Dead Silence (Universal) – $5.9 million
5. Bridge To Terabithia (Buena Vista) - $5.8 million
6. I Think I Love My Wife (Fox Searclight) - $4.5 million
7. Ghost Rider (Sony) - $4.3 million
8. Norbit (Paramount/Dreamworks) - $3 million
9. Zodiac (Paramount) - $2.9 million
10. Music & Lyrics (Warner Bros) - $2.2 million

http://www.fantasymoguls.com

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

It will definately make over $200 million worldwide. Its already at $181 million but it really had to do somewhere over $250 million WW to be considered a bonafide hit given its budget.

I know its at $181 at the moment buts its fading fast by the looks of things, i just hope it makes enough for a sequel really.

 

[Carp Man]

Fridays estimate is in. Updates below. $ 1,200,000.

 

[Advanced Dark]

http://www.variety.com/article/VR1117961305.html?categoryid=13&cs=1

<H1>Tracking system veers off rails

Research tools could get tweaked

By IAN MOHR, DADE HAYES




New pics "300," "Ghost Rider" and "Wild Hogs" all have one thing in common: They far exceeded their "tracking numbers" -- the predictions of their weekend box office.

Those were the happy cases. But with other recent examples when tracking pumped up expectations, as was the case with "Snakes on a Plane," the studios are wondering just what is going on with one of their primary research tools.
"Studios and tracking services are not in touch with audiences," says one former studio distribution head. "They have always done research the same ways, using the same cities more or less. Tracking has become strictly a tool to give executives an excuse as well as a backup with their filmmakers. I think that the whole system needs to change or this will just happen over and over."
Even some tracking services admit that changes are in the offing, with some coming to the conclusion that the proliferation of entertainment choices and the continuing influence of the Web on word of mouth and movie habits have thrown traditional polling by telephone methods out of whack.
And the stakes are higher, now that the industry's research increasingly makes its way into the public sphere, whether through industry gossip or via media outlets and blogs that report on tracking numbers.
Even Joe Farrell, founder of the National Research Group and godfather of modern movie research, says it has come to the point that he hates when people refer to "the tracking."
He has often noted that there is tracking for men, women, African-Americans, teens and many other groups. "But people insist on referring to one number."
There are now three companies tracking moviegoing and predicting results. Some in the studios, who pay for the results, are troubled by recent discrepancies, when research projections were off by $10 million or more.
Farrell is now a producer at Disney and is no longer running NRG -- and new execs there are more vulnerable than ever to competition. NRG remains the dominant service, with a wide lead over MarketCast (which is owned by Variety's parent company, Reed Elsevier) and OTX. But the prospect of a more refined tool is certainly appealing to the congloms positioning their opening pics.
Tracking services are responding by working on new methodology, says OTX founder and CEO Shelley Zalis: "The marketplace is changing, and we all have to evolve our research methods. The world is changing, and the way people make decisions about their time is changing. We need to get some more ingredients into the cake."
The tenor of exhib-distrib relations was upbeat at last week's ShoWest confab in Vegas (a change from recent years and a reflection of a resurgent B.O. and optimism for the summer).
But the ebullience is shaded with uneasiness about tracking, since no one wants to be "Snakes on a Plane," which underperformed in a hothouse marketing environment last August.
"Everybody has access to the same numbers," says marketing vet Peter Adee, who recently joined Overture Films as prexy of theatrical marketing. "The trick is in the interpretation."
Making predictions of an opening weekend is a relatively inexact procedure, based on calling potential moviegoers at home. Trackers ask questions like, "Do you recognize any of these titles?" or "If you were to see a movie this weekend, which of these would it be?"
Critics of the process have charged that tracking firms only call people with landlines, ignoring many young people who only use cellphones, and that asking parents about their kids' viewing plans isn't always effective.
"Tracking is a tool, and it would be irresponsible for us or anyone else to ignore it, but it has to be used very carefully," Universal's Adam Fogelson says. The danger, he says, is when people who do not understand the nuances of tracking try to interpret it, pointing out his studio has a whole department trained to interpret such data.
Genres such as chick flicks, horror and comedy have been deemed "difficult to track."
Confusingly, studio execs say that B.O. on pics that really take off, such as "300" or "Borat," is also more difficult to predict than figuring tallies on a film that will wind up in the $15 million to $30 million range. And they add that tracking has changed over the years, amid more complicated market conditions, to become more of a tool rather than a hard-and-fast rule.
Just before the March 9 domestic bow of "300," 28% of respondents picked it as their first choice. That suggested a bow of $50 million or so. When the film reached a staggering $70 million, there was immediate scuttlebutt about why, especially when Warner execs swore they expected something in the $30 million range.
Of course, studios like to tamp down expectations, to avoid a film being labeled a "disappointment" even though its figures are huge. But even WB's rivals were expecting a lower bow, due to tracking results. More likely, however, simple momentum caused the "300's" bonanza, with fair weather and weak competish from other openers. Quite often, studio projections will fluctuate wildly during the weekend itself -- a boffo Friday will point to a huge weekend, then a soft Saturday afternoon will deflate projections again.
Aware of the dilemma, tracking companies are evaluating their options. "We are in a very vibrant market right now. We are in constant dialogue with our studio partners about ways to refine our service," said NRG's Howard Ballon and Kevin Yoder in a statement.
Zalis says it's time to step back and look at the bigger picture. "It should be about much more than whether people are going to the movies, and if they're going, what movie will they see. The trouble is, the industry is comfortable with the numbers they know and the measures they know. But then disparities happen and people wonder why. "We're working toward research that doesn't just predict box office but actually gives a total picture of the consumer. All of their choices influence the other."

</H1>

 

[Advanced Dark]

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?view=daily&id=presdaycomic.htm

Ghost Rider pulling away faster from Daredevil. 120 is a lock for sure now. Can it break 125???

 

[Carp Man]

Depends how long it stays out. It's down to 2,824 theaters this week. TMNT, and The Last Mimzy open this week. 3,000 theaters each. Shooter has 2,600. The Hills Have Eyes II has 2,500. Looks like 300 is taking a huge hit this weekend. Down 63.6 % from last Friday.

 

[Theweepeople]

GR came out a month before 300 and it only took a week for 300 to match GR's domestic proft. That's sad. Despite the recent 63% dropoff 300's domestic profit will be 2 times greater than it's budget by next weekend. On the other hand GR's domestic profit could still be below it's budget after this weekend.

 

[GL's Light]

Looks like 300 is taking a huge hit this weekend. Down 63.6 % from last Friday.

The drop for the full weekend should be quite a bit lower than the Friday-to-Friday drop, as is normal for a second weekend following a heated opening. The 3-day weekend will likely have a drop in the mid-50's.

 

[Advanced Dark]

GR came out a month before 300 and it only took a week for 300 to match GR's domestic proft. That's sad. Despite the recent 63% dropoff 300's domestic profit will be 2 times greater than it's budget by next weekend. On the other hand GR's domestic profit could still be below it's budget after this weekend.

They both did better than expected. Nothing sad about it.

 

[highguard]

^^ True dat!

 

[Advanced Dark]

http://www.fantasymoguls.com has updated everything with a new story regarding snowstorm. GR's still predicted to take in about 4.2 million but 300 is between 25-30 million.