Box Office Predictions for the new TMNT movie

Guardians will make more just because the Marvel Brand being so strong and the trailer was pretty awesome

Turtle could make some good money if Marketed but we all know it's not so
My guess is

domestic: 70 mil
Foreign : 160 Mill

230 million WW
 
I think TMNT is going to surprise people and i think its going to do abit of damage to GOTG box office takings.
The fanbase for TMNT is a behemoth compared to GOTG. Ill see both movies but im more pumped to see the turtles than GOTG.
 
My guess is around the 400s to 500s million overall, maybe less due to Guardians of the Galaxy, it's more popular as a franchise than G.I.Joe, and has kids appeal, 300 million is actualy a safe bet to be honest, but i pushed it one step beyond.

TMNT vs Guardians of the Galaxy seems like an interesting fight, i think Guardians will most likely do more, unless nostalgia's too strong, since some 3 generations have pretty much grown with that franchise.
 
Looks like the TMNT on track to earn $60m-65m this opening weekend and take out No1 spot, well done turtles.
 
If true that's nothing to be happy about.

What!?!?

It's a lot to be happy about as a fan of TMNT. It gives the opportunity for paramount and nick films to redeem themselves with a sequel by correcting their flaws. We are in the age where there have been sequels that have outdone their predecessor more often than not. Optimism, my friend.
 
If true that's nothing to be happy about.

207_not_sure_if_serious.jpg
 
Very good news that the movie is going to make that much opening weekend, I dont have the oppurtunity to see the movie until October but I am ready for a new TMNT franchise.

Though I havent seen the movie it wouldnt bother me if Liebesman was replaced.
 
Does anyone know the terms of the deal with Platinum Dunes?
 
Will we finally get a Beebop and Rocksteady and Krang on the big screen?
 
A sequel could correct some wrongs but they still have this new origin story. Unless, they go the route of "THE INCREDIBLE HULK" and in the opening credits completely ignore the origin from the first film, they're still going to have to convince fans there's a reason for a sequel or to come out for a second slice just like "ASM 2" had to do.

While it may make some gains with adding in comic book or cartoon characters, unless it addresses its problems early ala hiring better writers and a director, it might fall into the same problems if not create a number of new ones. In some ways I feel, the perfect director for the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles would be Guillermo Del Toro. Look at the Hellboy movies--- he embraced the silliness and fun of the concept but it also had good action scenes and likable onscreen characters both human and non-human.
 
I think Utracia's fear is a successful box office take gives the producers a false sense of security - one that, in their minds, justifies not rectifying some of the mistakes they've made narratively and creatively, and allows them to compound everything we don't like about the film. Michael Bay has taken that approach on Transformers, and there's every indication that he would do the same here. The only hope is that Nickelodeon would step in and prevent him from acting as an ill-suited custodian of the franchise.

The dilemma is that we want to have the movie do well to get a sequel, but they could keep messing that up. My answer to this when I realized it is that no money for a sequel means zero chance of getting what we want, so we want this movie to at least make the money so the franchise has a chance.
 
A sequel could correct some wrongs but they still have this new origin story. Unless, they go the route of "THE INCREDIBLE HULK" and in the opening credits completely ignore the origin from the first film, they're still going to have to convince fans there's a reason for a sequel or to come out for a second slice just like "ASM 2" had to do.

While it may make some gains with adding in comic book or cartoon characters, unless it addresses its problems early ala hiring better writers and a director, it might fall into the same problems if not create a number of new ones. In some ways I feel, the perfect director for the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles would be Guillermo Del Toro. Look at the Hellboy movies--- he embraced the silliness and fun of the concept but it also had good action scenes and likable onscreen characters both human and non-human.

You just addressed what I've been thinking the last few days with regard to Hulk. I'm actually watching The Incredible Hulk right now for that very reason.
 
A sequel could correct some wrongs but they still have this new origin story. Unless, they go the route of "THE INCREDIBLE HULK" and in the opening credits completely ignore the origin from the first film, they're still going to have to convince fans there's a reason for a sequel or to come out for a second slice just like "ASM 2" had to do.
Why fix something that's working exactly?
 
The fact that the BO has been so good so far belies the film's critical reception and proves that 'critical opinion' isn't everything. The film is obviously finding a receptive and interested audience in spite of its poor critical reception (just as the other live-action films did, incidentally), so why (as Marvin asked) would Paramount and Nickelodeon want to fix something that's obviously working so far?

I predicted that the film would very much be a success, and, so far, that prediction has proven true, and I do believe we'll see at least one sequel.
 
Why fix something that's working exactly?

Marvin, the general consensus from critics and fans I've seen is the new origin does not work. It sounds like that, the script, the human characters, and plot all are the biggest problems this reboot has. Regardless if this is making $$$$ this weekend at the box-office, fan and critic opinions have been generally mixed/mildly-satisfied to negative. With user reviews on Rotten Tomatoes, the movie sits at a 65% and on Metacritic a 53%. By Monday, we should have a pretty good estimate as far as the box-office total but also public opinion. If this film does not keep a strong standing with the public and gets beaten next week by the two new films "Let's Be Cops" and "Expendables 3", it could end up at say 3rd or fourth place. Maybe 2nd. "Guardians of the Galaxy" could always make a comeback too.

I think right now everyone is going out of pure curiosity or because they're old fans or new fans. Opinions with kids on this new film is stronger than with the adults. Teens will probably like it though.

But this all being said, as I've said before, the identified problems with this film have been stated by fans and critics. If Paramount, Nickelodeon, Megan Fox, and others are checking these forums or CBM's (which I'm sure they do because they knew about the so-called "hate" and responded it to it inappropriately and rudely I might add) then they should be well aware and taking notes of what to do better if a sequel is indeed green lit or not in the future, but it's all wait and see come next week. When you got a film that is loved by fans and critics vs. this, I still think "GOTG" has a fighting shot at making a comeback, tying "TMNT (2014)" for first place, or dethroning it come next week.
 
I think the huge surge which no one saw coming was from parents taking their kids to see this. I think this film is headed for a 60-70% drop in week 2. It will make enough to greenlight a sequel and that's about it.
 
^Lots of people saw kids and families and parents. Though I suppose that would explain why so many people predicted low numbers. That and the assumption no one would enjoy it. A 70% drop I suppose is keeping in that trend. Low expectations tend to make actuals look even bigger for the studio.

@NinjaTurtleFan
Fans and critics will do that thing they do. The thing about these Bay productions is that they seemingly function without and almost in spite of such things. The week leading up to the release is always fun(doom and gloom and opinion run rampant) and the week after the discourse for the film becomes more accurate on the issue of success. Also, Paramount has a tradition of listening to the fans. By fans I mean the people that support their films, not these other people. Kids in particular on this one. Thus the question being, like TF, why would the executives 'need to make changes or else' if they find the appropriate amount of success...If it under performs, I'd understand.

I suppose you went on to answer that with your assertion/prediction that the box office will no doubt start stinking soon if it hasn't already. I suppose we won't know till the actuals. Anything can still happen but as far as the current signs, this film looks to be over performing and like GotG, the actual size of the number isn't as important as the amount it over performs expectations by. Initial predictions were at 38-41?

I personally think whatever number TMNT opens up with, it was probably in line for maybe 5 or 10mill more had it not been for the competition. Whatever happens next weekend will def be a battle for the top spot, which will no doubt land in the mid to high twenties.
 
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But this all being said, as I've said before, the identified problems with this film have been stated by fans and critics. If Paramount, Nickelodeon, Megan Fox, and others are checking these forums or CBM's (which I'm sure they do because they knew about the so-called "hate" and responded it to it inappropriately and rudely I might add) then they should be well aware and taking notes of what to do better if a sequel is indeed green lit or not in the future, but it's all wait and see come next week.

Yeah, i'm pretty sure they don't.

You didn't have to go into the nerd forums to know that people were hating on this movie...
 
I think the huge surge which no one saw coming was from parents taking their kids to see this. I think this film is headed for a 60-70% drop in week 2. It will make enough to greenlight a sequel and that's about it.

I don't think it will have such a huge drop off in week 2. The next few weeks we have films like The Expendables, etc coming out. There just aren't that many family/kid friendly-type movies out now, so parents don't have a lot of options for their kids- who are still home for the summer and driving them crazy.
 
^Lots of people saw kids and families and parents. Though I suppose that would explain why so many people predicted low numbers. That and the assumption no one would enjoy it. A 70% drop I suppose is keeping in that trend. Low expectations tend to make actuals look even bigger for the studio.

@NinjaTurtleFan
Fans and critics will do that thing they do. The thing about these Bay productions is that they seemingly function without and almost in spite of such things. The week leading up to the release is always fun(doom and gloom and opinion run rampant) and the week after the discourse for the film becomes more accurate on the issue of success. Also, Paramount has a tradition of listening to the fans. By fans I mean the people that support their films, not these other people. Kids in particular on this one. Thus the question being, like TF, why would the executives 'need to make changes or else' if they find the appropriate amount of success...If it under performs, I'd understand.

I suppose you went on to answer that with your assertion/prediction that the box office will no doubt start stinking soon if it hasn't already. I suppose we won't know till the actuals. Anything can still happen but as far as the current signs, this film looks to be over performing and like GotG, the actual size of the number isn't as important as the amount it over performs expectations by. Initial predictions were at 38-41?

I personally think whatever number TMNT opens up with, it was probably in line for maybe 5 or 10mill more had it not been for the competition. Whatever happens next weekend will def be a battle for the top spot, which will no doubt land in the mid to high twenties.

The way Bay has responded to critics, it seems that he almost makes his movies just to spite them and the disgruntled fans.

With regard to Paramount listening to fans, how much control over this is there between Paramount, Nickelodeon, and Platinum Dunes? Also, does IDW have any say, or do they handle the comics 100% independently of the film and TV media? With all the cooks in the kitchen, I'm curious who the head chef really is and what the terms of the contracts are to produce these.
 

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