Ant-Man Box Office Predictions - Part 1

[Raiden]

Man, Vacation just frelling ate it. (EDIT: They were talking about it doing double that just a week ago) Someone said (rightly) that Ant-Man is seeing the loss of premium theater showings. Vacation and Ant-Man (and Minions for that matter) could be close.

MI:RN probably will lose out to FF next weekend, but I don't think that's an absolute lock at this point in time. Next week is going to be VERY interesting.

I have a feeling that MI:RN will win the weekend over FF next weekend as well, especially since the reviews are good and it will help its WOM.

 

[Raiden]

In my own defense, I did say "probably". Say MI gets a higher BO than we expect (Say 63M for the sake of discussion). If it only had a 40% drop, it would come in at about 38M. That might very well beat out FF, but both of those numbers seem more than a little far fetched.

When I said it isn't an absolute lock, I was thinking that FF could pull a Vacation and take a dive like Battlin' Jack Murdock (Well, not his last fight). Say the last minute reviews just stink to high heaven. Who knows what'll happen to FF OW numbers then?

I think Fox is keeping the FF embargo until next week, so we won't know its reviews until then. It shows that the studio probably doesn't have a lot of faith in this reboot imo.

 

[InCali]

I have a feeling that MI:RN will win the weekend over FF next weekend as well, especially since the reviews are good and it will help its WOM.

Maybe, but it's going to have to pull a Vacation for that to happen. And this is coming from someone who's not into MI or Tom Cruise. Right?

 

[Raiden]

Maybe, but it's going to have to pull a Vacation for that to happen. And this is coming from someone who's not into MI or Tom Cruise. Right?

Yes, but I personally do not want to see FF succeed, so I'd rather root for MI:RN to win next weekend.

 

[Docker2.0]

In my own defense, I did say "probably". Say MI gets a higher BO than we expect (Say 63M for the sake of discussion). If it only had a 40% drop, it would come in at about 38M. That might very well beat out FF, but both of those numbers seem more than a little far fetched.

When I said it isn't an absolute lock, I was thinking that FF could pull a Vacation and take a dive like Battlin' Jack Murdock (Well, not his last fight). Say the last minute reviews just stink to high heaven. Who knows what'll happen to FF OW numbers then?

You are your "logic".........

 

[JKKS085]

I can see FF opening with a sub-35M week end. I expect the reviews to be brutal (you do not set an embargo on reviews to lift a day before release without a very good reason to do so). The IP is basically dead to the general audience after two terrible films that were released a lifetime ago, and frankly Marvel did what they had to do not to push it through other medias. I don't feel like the marketing campaign made much of an impression aside maybe for all the controversy surrounding the film. To me it feels like a recipe for a flop. MI-RN should still be playing strong if early wom is to be trusted, it's going to be the third "Marvel" release since May with direct competition from holdover Ant-Man. Things are not aligning well for the reboot. I'd be surprised if it opens north of 40M.

But yes it's going to be interesting if MI-RN can manage a sub 50% drop from a 55M+ week end (which is still a bit doubtful though)

 

[InCali]

You are your "logic".........

Well, I taught classes in statistical analysis and probability, worked as an electronic, and then, network engineer. What do you expect, an empath???

 

[SomeOldGuy]

@BoxOffice: ANT-MAN took in an estimated $12.62M this weekend. Domestic total stands at $132.15M.

That should be good for third behind Vacation and MIRN. On to $150 million!

 

[GL's Light]

From BoxOffice.com:

ANT-MAN: $159.5M Overseas Total / $291.648M Global Total

 

[JKKS085]

@BoxOffice: ANT-MAN took in an estimated $12.62M this weekend. Domestic total stands at $132.15M.

That should be good for third behind Vacation and MIRN. On to $150 million!

To keep the comparison with CATFA alive, that's a drop on par with CATFA's third week end (-49%) and Ant-Man's week end is running only $400,000 behind Cap's if the estimates hold. 160M+ dom si still very much on the cards if it keeps holding well. 150M+ is a lock.

 

[GL's Light]

If Ant-Man tracks with the post-third weekend drop-off pattern of Captain America: TFA it'll end up with a domestic gross of about $163 million.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

From BoxOffice.com:

ANT-MAN: $159.5M Overseas Total / $291.648M Global Total

Nice international jump! I was thinking more like $270-280 WW after this weekend.

 

[JKKS085]

From BoxOffice.com: ANT-MAN: $159.5M Overseas Total / $291.648M Global Total

That is encouraging too. Should gross around 340/350M WW before opening in Italy, South Korea, Austria, Greece, China and Japan. Final numbers WW will exceed 400M. I can even see it grossing close to Thor's WW numbers.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

That is encouraging too. Should gross around 340/350M WW before opening in Italy, South Korea, Austria, Greece, China and Japan. Final numbers WW will exceed 400M. I can even see it grossing close to Thor's WW numbers.

If it gets in the vicinity of $350 million before Japan, South Korea and China, IMO it's a lock to pass Thor WW. Ant-Man nearly doubled GotG in Hong Kong and passed GotG's total take in Taiwan in 11 days. If Ant-Man only equals GotG in China, Korea and Japan, that's $116 million. If it outperforms like its done so far in Asia, it might even make it to $500 million.

 

[JKKS085]

If it gets in the vicinity of $350 million before Japan, South Korea and China, IMO it's a lock to pass Thor WW. Ant-Man nearly doubled GotG in Hong Kong and passed GotG's total take in Taiwan in 11 days. If Ant-Man only equals GotG in China, Korea and Japan, that's $116 million. If it outperforms like its done so far in Asia, it might even make it to $500 million.

I frankly wasn't paying a lot of attention to the asian numbers yet as the main markets were still to open. But yes if mainland China performs as well as Hong Kong and Taiwan that's promising. And even if it doesn't, the upcoming european markets (Greece, Italy and Austria should give it another 8/10 millions)+ the holdovers + whatever is left dom after mid-August + China/Japan/SK should amount to 100M+ easily and push it around the 450M mark.

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

@BoxOffice: ANT-MAN took in an estimated $12.62M this weekend. Domestic total stands at $132.15M.

That should be good for third behind Vacation and MIRN. On to $150 million!

From BoxOffice.com:

Great stuff

 

[Dyson]

So great to see that this film has staying power at the box office!

 

[Superhero 101]

Nice to see antmman doing well i am really hoping it can cross 500! When will ant man release in China s. korea Italy and Japan?

 

[SomeOldGuy]

South Korea is the 20th I believe. Japan is mid-September. China doesn't have a date yet.

 

[GL's Light]

There are some reports of a release date of 18 September in China, but I don't know how reliable they are.

 

[ironman_rick]

Wow....Close to $300M without china, japan and S.korea. Well.....I think its conclusive now. Anything with a marvel stamp is gonna gross loads and loads of $$$.

Bring on that squirrel girl adaptation.....

 

[Wildcard]

No, that's not true. The fact is they know how to handle their properties and introduce them in a manner that is interesting to audiences. The minute they put out something lik Squirrel Girl (which they wouldn't ever do), it would be the start of the end.

 

[chicagodave]

Im glad the movie is doing well i loved the movie It sure to hit 400 mill easily ww. Hopefully this will be enough to fastrack a sequel.

 

[chicagodave]

No, that's not true. The fact is they know how to handle their properties and introduce them in a manner that is interesting to audiences. The minute they put out something lik Squirrel Girl (which they wouldn't ever do), it would be the start of the end.

True but i wonder how many people thought that when they said their making a movie with a talking racoon and a tree that only says one line and the star will be that guy from parks and rec.

Marvel is great about choosing their characters who knows maybe they would make squirrel girl work.

 

[KangConquers]

Does anyone have any examples of what comparably sized films are doing in China this summer?