Superman Returns Box Office Preview

[Weadazoid]

That is something that CANNOT be overlooked. After the success of the Potter franchise, I'm sure the WB is licking their chops for more. School will be out, Superman Returns will be the first major movie of the official summer season, and they'll be coming in droves.

Remember, there is no age limit here folks....SR is going to be targeted at ALL audiences. I believe the quote was:

'From 8 to 80.'

and that would be great if it ididn't have kid freindly Pirates right beihind it


Also a Comic book movie that is rated PG.... bothers me on some strange level....but hey I'm 30 so

 

[Showtime]

I thought it was PG-13?

 

[Hunter Rider]

Thanks, HR. My personal interest in the film is irrelevant to its potential BO gross, or my predictions thereof. I'm merely looking at the big picture in terms of other films in similar genres, as well as quoting what other experts in the industry have said. SR will stand on its own laurels.

I don't think I've ever put a number on it, but right now I'm thinking around $250M (dom) assuming modest reviews. The general rule of thumb is 3 times opening weekend, but SR will be opening over the July 4th frame, so that makes extrapolation a little difficult. If we just look at the Friday - Sunday window, that would calculate out to about 83M, which is pretty close to what I *think* it will do (in three days.) If collective reviews are amazing (90% or higher "fresh" on Rotten Tomatoes), the film *could* break $300M. That would be quite a coup for Warners. If reviewers pan it (unlikely, but always possible), it will probably ceiling at considerably less, but I still think it will break $200M. It's Superman. To think it will do less than that is just being naive.

As to folks in my ignore bin, reality confirmation for their continued residence there is always a good thing, so thanks!

PS: Can we keep it on topic people. This forum is NOT for discussing other users, and as much as I love to think the world revolves around lil ole me I don't post here for that purpose.

I think anywhere between 250-300 is a fair estimate
As for the kids,im not sure that SR will connect with them

 

[Excel]

i think it will...supermans always been a boys fav. and theres an abolsute ****load of toys coming out. i dont think we have to worry bout kids. its the 12+ crowd that might have a problem ith.

 

[Mentok]

Its an ADVENTURE film, the kids will love it.

 

[Hunter Rider]

I think they may find him kinda corny next to Spidey and Jack Sparrow

 

[AgentPat]

...the one thing I don't get about David's 700 million figure is how BB reportedly tuned a nice profit that added to WB's bottom line when it cost 175 million and made 372 million and profits also had to be shared by Legendary...

Dunno? [shrugs] But I'd be interested to hear what Poland has to say if he replies to your e-mail. I've been reading The Hot Button since 2002. He's very much on the ball when it comes to Hollywood and the biz in general.

Piracy Piracy Piracy..That's the sole reason SW3 didn't cross 400 Million last year. That's probably the biggest culprit. DVD sales are still strong across the board for these movies. (BB has grossed about 200 Million on DVD sales/rentals alone already)

"SW?" Star Wars?

The general rule of thumb for home vid profits *used* to be 60% of the OVERALL gross. The percentage is a little higher now, but the point is, BB will make quite a profit for Warner Home Video. It'll probably gross another $150M on top of the $200M it's already achieved in the home video market.

Batman has generally always done better at home than overseas....Happened with Batman 89, Batman Returns, Batman Forever, and Batman Begins. Seems like Batman doesn't quite 'click' as much overseas in BO.

Yeah, I've read that. I haven't seen anybody offer a reasonable explanation for why that is though. Anybody? Buehler? Why would Spider-Man and X-Men (for example) be more popular than Batman? Is it DC vs. Marvel? Is it that Batman is just an "ordinary" human with neat toys, and people would rather see mutants or spider-bite based powers? This is probably a topic for a different thread, but it does play into predicting the box office profits of a film in the superhero genre. Some people have suggested that superheros associated more with Americanized themes do poorly in some foreign countries, though that probably applies to just about anything.

He could be right...but we don't know the complete details of the vested interest Legendary Productions has in SR.

Variety printed an article a few months ago detailing LP's involvement with Warners and the big picture. It was quite extensive, and IIRC, involved put picture pacts for about 20 films over the next five years. Something like that. I can dig up the article if you'd like.

(As is the case with BB and it's sequels) I mean, if BB did 'only' 370 WW and 'only' did 50 past it's production budget or 150 Million domestically, then why would Legendary want to gain a minimal return on its investment? Doesn't make much sense, but I guess a Million is a million.

Gotta remember, studios don't expect EVERY film to be profitable. They'd like every film to be LOL, but they know it's unlikely. It's the 80/20 rule. For every ten films produced by the majors, only two will be profitable for the studio, one will break even, and the other seven will be carried by the top 20%. It's generalized, but pretty close.

By definition, a tentpole film is a blockbuster. It supports all of the other little films around it and often launches a franchise. BB was a relaunch, if you will. So like SR, costs for sequels to these films are amortized over the length of their productions. For example, lets say the FOS set for SR cost $30M. If they make two sequels to the film and use the same set, they'll defray the cost over all three films. So in the end, the set will only use $10M of production budget on each film. Since BB and SR are tentpole films (franchise starters), Legendary would also be willing to incur a minor loss with the first film knowing that sequels will cost considerably less and have a better ROI.

Singer already corrected all the rumors. (Budget at 186)

Hee. Okay. Just so you know, no Major will ever divulge the true cost of their film(s) to the public. There's *always* two "books" in every business, and sometimes more than two.

and that would be great if it didn't have kid friendly Pirates right behind it

Also a Comic book movie that is rated PG.... bothers me on some strange level....but hey I'm 30 so

I agree. The PG rating is REALLY out of left field, but cartoons like The Incredibles, Shrek and Ice Age did VERY well and were all rated PG, so we shall see if that translates well to SR, a live action film. The risk is that younger, teen audiences with expendable incomes won't take the film seriously and avoid it because it's for "kids." Spider-Man was rated PG-13 IIRC, and it was quite violent, yet that didn't seem to affect its overall BO profits.

 

[Excel]

I can agree with your forecast (90/100 in opening weekend, 325 domesticly).

But I doubt it will get 90-100m opening weekend. It will be realesed on June 30th, and even Spidey 2 didn't make more than $85m.

So I think it will make about $83-86m, because it will be realesed on Friday.

cinaman, spidey 2 made 88 million on its first friday through sunday weekend cause it opened on a wednesday to 40 million. it would have taken in 120 million + had it opened on a friday instead. superman is on a friday though.

as for hunter, superman can easily get a multiplier of 3 even with pirates. why?

it has a lot of overlooked advantages in its second weekend.
1. word of mouth. supermans july4th inflated first week ensures tons of viewings and if the word of mouth is good, theyll tons of it.
2. theater count. superman will open in atleast 4000 theaters and probably add theaters its second weekend. if supermans in 4000, it would be immensly hard for pirates top its count, and hard just to break 3800 screens. much like how narnia was in more theaters then kong was.
3. running time. superman running time last reported was 150 minutes and with 3 months to go, itll probably be trimmed to under 140. pirates however, promises to long. the opriginal was 163 minutes. pirates length limits the amount of showings it can have per day. kong had the same effect. it was 3500 theaters but each theater could only show it 6 times a day cause of its immense length. while narnia was in 3700 theaters with 8 showings a day. limted showings in limited theater=much more sellouts=much more crowd overflow, and supermans the likely second choice. much like how when attack of the clones opened in 3000 theaters while spidey was still in 3500, spiderman made 45 million due to the huge overflow from crowd sellouts.

i mean, pirates will still probably break 115 million opening, but those expecting a 60% drop or more for superman will be dissapointed. the most it will drop is 55%, but i see around 50% exactly after a 90 million opening.

 

[Excel]

I think they may find him kinda corny next to Spidey and Jack Sparrow

depends. spiderman scores extremely well with the 8-12 crowd cause they find him cool while still appealing to the 4-8 crowd. superman is the 4-8 crowd who are amazed by his powers, while still having appeal to the 8-12, who wont find him as cool as spiderman.

again anybody who is preditrcing spiderman numbers-domestic, overseas,or worldwide-is out of their minds.

but 300 millions very doabloe, assuming the film and or marketing dont suck.

if this pulls a batman begins and must rely on legs, itll top out around 245-250 million. but this will defiently get atleast 500 ww.

 

[Pickle-El]

I think they may find him kinda corny next to Spidey and Jack Sparrow

Kids LOVE Superman.

 

[Hunter Rider]

depends. spiderman scores extremely well with the 8-12 crowd cause they find him cool while still appealing to the 4-8 crowd. superman is the 4-8 crowd who are amazed by his powers, while still having appeal to the 8-12, who wont find him as cool as spiderman.

again anybody who is preditrcing spiderman numbers-domestic, overseas,or worldwide-is out of their minds.

but 300 millions very doabloe, assuming the film and or marketing dont suck.

if this pulls a batman begins and must rely on legs, itll top out around 245-250 million. but this will defiently get atleast 500 ww.

the teen end may be where SR feels the burn though,they are into guys like Bauer now

I see 75-80M Friday to Sunday and a total of around 250-275 Domestic,WW is harder to predict but i think it will have less impact in Europe than the US

 

[Excel]

yeah i mean...i dont think i have seen a halloween where i havent seen like 10 supermans.

i dont think ive been to a toy store without tons of superman stuff.

superman and kids is like bread n butter.

 

[Hunter Rider]

Kids LOVE Superman.

By kids you mean 5-8 ? because to me they are all kids right up to 18 and any past 10 i think will find him corny and even younger ones may feel he lacks the coolness of Spidey

 

[Excel]

the teen end may be where SR feels the burn though,they are into guys like Bauer now

I see 75-80M Friday to Sunday and a total of around 250-275 Domestic,WW is harder to predict but i think it will have less impact in Europe than the US

probably. pirates 2's strength is its teen audience while supermans is its kids. the dif. is kids bring parents and repeat viewings.

plus superman doesnt have a guitared twist like pirates 2

 

[Pickle-El]

the teen end may be where SR feels the burn though,they are into guys like Bauer now

I see 75-80M Friday to Sunday and a total of around 250-275 Domestic,WW is harder to predict but i think it will have less impact in Europe than the US

If SR performs like S:TM did (the film it most resembles according to everyone) Then you could very well see something along the lines of:

335 Domestic and about 400 internationally. (Which is very close to S:TM numbers when you 'inflate'. It's actually more, but I don't see this kind of performance to be impossible)

I still don't get the BO for Finding Nemo and Shrek 2 and The Incredibles....I'll never understand that. Damn kids..

 

[Excel]

By kids you mean 5-8 ? because to me they are all kids right up to 18 and any past 10 i think will find him corny and even younger ones may feel he lacks the coolness of Spidey

i think h means the 8 and under crowd. teenagers wont find him as cool, though i think the action/fx featured in the tv spots will be impressive enough to get em in there. outside of this site im no comic nut, but even me and some of my buddys are planning on seeing this at midnight.

 

[Hunter Rider]

If SR performs like S:TM did (the film it most resembles according to everyone) Then you could very well see something along the lines of:

335 Domestic and about 400 internationally. (Which is very close to S:TM numbers when you 'inflate'. It's actually more, but I don't see this kind of performance to be impossible)

I still don't get the BO for Finding Nemo and Shrek 2 and The Incredibles....I'll never understand that. Damn kids..

Well Shrek 2 had a lot of older fans with the humour,Nemo i never got
I think STM was a product of it's time and the first in a summer with no competition,with the arrival ever sooner of DVD's and the piracy problems along with the crushed schedules now numbers are not really compatible with the past IMO

Ive said i think 500M is Possible but what worries me is this thread sounds a LOT like the BB Box office threads and then when the overpriced evaluations weren't met it was all "oh nooooooooo it's tanked" change in the market and social climates have to taken into account you can no longer say "well it's Superman it will be huge"

 

[Hunter Rider]

probably. pirates 2's strength is its teen audience while supermans is its kids. the dif. is kids bring parents and repeat viewings.

plus superman doesnt have a guitared twist like pirates 2

Not sure what you mean but the kid alone could prove highly guitared

 

[explode7]

Wait a minute this is a BO thread right. Then where's cinemaman?

 

[Excel]

the dif. is batman had fordseeable problems nobody saw and some that we couldnt see.

1.nobody thought it marketing in june would be that bad. w.b. went with a long, 10 month marketing push that had more stuff for batman in december-march then in may-june when it counted. if supermans is that bad it wont get more then 250 million.
-superman wont have this, as w.b.s opted for the one huge 2 month push. may-june will be full of superman unlike it was for batman.

2. batman had a huge effect with batmab & robin. it was still fresh in peoples minds and kept em away.
-superman hasnt had a film in 20 years.

3. batman begins didnt appeal to kids.
-superman does.

4. supermans drama was a (too most) uninteresting, unappealing story of a man trying to conquer inner demons. men got bored in the first hour, and women werent interested to begin with.
-supermans drama is a love story. this will BRING IN women and its immense budget promises huge action thatll bring in men. so esstentially, supermans a "date"movie while batman certainly wasnt.

5. release date-batman opened after surprise smash mr. and mrs. smith which appealed to all of batmans core demographics. plus it opened oin the dead middle of june where everybody was tired after seeing mays big guns.
-supermans ther first big film of next summer once kids get off and opens on the best release date of the year, july 4th holiday, and is the first big film in over a month, which gives it an audience and marketing advantage.

 

[Pickle-El]

By kids you mean 5-8 ? because to me they are all kids right up to 18 and any past 10 i think will find him corny and even younger ones may feel he lacks the coolness of Spidey

This is something people around here always so. Why is that? What's so cool about some kid who mopes around all day and runs at the site of a girl? (And can't pay his rent for that matter)

Oh well....I just don't get why people like to use the 'he isn't cool' card. What has changed since I was 7 all those years ago? In the end, they're all good guys, right?

Isn't that the general basis for these movies? Good guy/bad guy/damsel in distress/danger/etc...

He may not be cooler to some of 'us'...but kids will always love Superman. It's practically folklore at this point. It's not just women watching Smallville (6Million people) ya know?

This a whole new generation of kids that will get to see Supes on the big screen. That shouldn't be overlooked. Between that and the nostalgia from older fans, people will be going crazy when they start seeing commercials with the John Williams Superman Theme blasting and Superman doing the things ONLY Superman can do.....TRUST ME on this. Just because it isn't quite time yet, doesn't mean it won't happen. There's going to be millions of kids that will be humming the Superman theme after they hear it for the first time after they leave the theater. If SR has HALF the heart of S:TM, you will have seen kids realize another larger than life hero that they will remember for the rest of their lives.

Remember, this is WHY they brought in Bryan Singer.....look at what he did with potentially circus-like looking on screen characters like the X-Men. He could have goofed up big and been a HUGE campfest. As we have it, X3 is coming in theatres in about 2 months.

In the end, it comes down to whether or not you think Bryan Singer knows how to MAKE Superman relatable to kids as well as adults.

 

[Excel]

Not sure what you mean but the kid alone could prove highly guitared

lol.

i mean pirates big audience is teenagers. it will sell about 180 million bucks in teenage audience alone. it will still sell about 100 million or so to kids and their parents, but teens it heprime audience.

superman big audience is kids. it will sell about 175-200 million in ticket sales to kids and parents. it will still sell about 100 million to teenagers.

do you see what i mean?

 

[Hunter Rider]

This is something people around here always so. Why is that? What's so cool about some kid who mopes around all day and runs at the site of a girl? (And can't pay his rent for that matter)

Oh well....I just don't get why people like to use the 'he isn't cool' card. What has changed since I was 7 all those years ago? In the end, they're all good guys, right?

Isn't that the general basis for these movies? Good guy/bad guy/damsel in distress/danger/etc...

He may not be cooler to some of 'us'...but kids will always love Superman. It's practically folklore at this point. It's not just women watching Smallville (6Million people) ya know?



This a whole new generation of kids that will get to see Supes on the big screen. That shouldn't be overlooked. Between that and the nostalgia from older fans, people will be going crazy when they start seeing commercials with the John Williams Superman Theme blasting and Superman doing the things ONLY Superman can do.....TRUST ME on this. Just because it isn't quite time yet, doesn't mean it won't happen. There's going to be millions of kids that will be humming the Superman theme after they hear it for the first time after they leave the theater. If SR has HALF the heart of S:TM, you will have seen kids realize another larger than life hero that they will remember for the rest of their lives.

Remember, this is WHY they brought in Bryan Singer.....look at what he did with potentially circus-like looking on screen characters like the X-Men. He could have goofed up big and been a HUGE campfest. As we have it, X3 is coming in theatres in about 2 months.

In the end, it comes down to whether or not you think Bryan Singer knows how to MAKE Superman relatable to kids as well as adults.

Well i think SV appeals alot to the same crowd that have made the OC such a big hit and Dawsons Creek before it,it's the teen romances and relationships that are it's source of popularity IMO
As for Spidey being cool,i think when he is in the suit he is seen as cool and out of it very relatable to the everyday kid
Why does cool matter ? i dunno but kids hate corny these days and good guys with and edge seem all the rage with the big teen market
Im not saying SR won't appeal but these 600 and 700 million estimates are crazy IMO

 

[Excel]

its far more crazy to say supermans ww gross will be 400 million then it is to say it will be 600.

and hunter, what is gods among men?

 

[Hunter Rider]

lol.

i mean pirates big audience is teenagers. it will sell about 180 million bucks in teenage audience alone. it will still sell about 100 million or so to kids and their parents, but teens it heprime audience.

superman big audience is kids. it will sell about 175-200 million in ticket sales to kids and parents. it will still sell about 100 million to teenagers.

do you see what i mean?

I was referring to plus

superman doesnt have a guitared twist like pirates 2