Civil War Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[JOE]

A 200M OW, just the thought of it gives me goosebumps...

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

People mocked my predictions about GotG but I've got that same kind of vibe with this film. Its reviews are so great and people have so much faith in the Marvel brand now. This thing is going to blow away people's expectations and will have crazy legs. mark my words.

 

[Iceman]

With regards to the second weekend drop, is it possible that the early lifting of the review embargo will result in this being more front-loaded than we would otherwise expect or is that not really going to have an effect?

It's a very rewatchable film so I can't see the legs being bad. The good early reviews/reception contribute to post 1st weekend results too.

 

[Chesterfield]

Another good thing about this movie is that it's excellently paced.

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

Slightly off topic but if the Russo bros did this good with this film I really can't wait to see them tackle Infinity War or whatever they end up calling it. That's gonna be huge!

 

[JKKS085]

The film should be at around $275/280M before the week end (friday).
Assuming it makes around 200M in the US for the week end + 125M in China + 35M on the new international markets (India, Russia, Argentina, Italy, Malaysia ...) and get 90M from the holdovers (that would be a 55% drop from last week end) that would put the film at around 710/730M after sunday. And frankly at this point this seems like the conservative spectrum of predictions and I wouldn't be surprised to see it land closer to 750M.

It should pass BvS worldwide before its third week end of global release, it'll probably clear past of the billion dollar mark after that week end.

 

[JOE]

The film should be at around $275/280M before the week end (friday).
Assuming it makes around 200M in the US for the week end + 125M in China + 35M on the new international markets (India, Russia, Argentina, Italy, Malaysia ...) and get 90M from the holdovers (that would be a 55% drop from last week end) that would put the film at around 710/730M after sunday. And frankly at this point this seems like the conservative spectrum of predictions and I wouldn't be surprised to see it land closer to 750M.

It should pass BvS worldwide before its third week end of global release, it'll probably clear past of the billion dollar mark after that week end.

So where are you thinking this movie will fall once all said and done? 1.3?

 

[JKKS085]

So where are you thinking this movie will fall once all said and done? 1.3?

Depending on the domestic owe (and assuming it makes 200M+), I think it has a realistic shot at beating AoU. I'm still not sure wether or not it's gonna make more internationally (fluctuating exchange rates and all) but the domestic box office should at the very least make up for that (and improve Marvel's roi compared to Ultron). Wether or not it can beat The Avengers remains to be seen and I would need more data to make up my mind (like second week end drop, domestically and internationally, more details on the performance in China, and how the competition will affect its performance, if at all). But 1.4B+ seems like the target now if tracking is to be trusted.

 

[JB33]

Depending on the domestic owe (and assuming it makes 200M+), I think it has a realistic shot at beating AoU. I'm still not sure wether or not it's gonna make more internationally (fluctuating exchange rates and all) but the domestic box office should at the very least make up for that (and improve Marvel's roi compared to Ultron). Wether or not it can beat The Avengers remains to be seen and I would need more data to make up my mind (like second week end drop, domestically and internationally, more details on the performance in China, and how the competition will affect its performance, if at all). But 1.4B+ seems like the target now if tracking is to be trusted.

Pretty much my feelings exactly.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Boxoffice.com predicts $214 million for OW.

http://pro.boxoffice.com/weekend-forecast-captain-america-civil-war/

 

[third3ye]

Boxoffice.com predicts $214 million for OW.

http://pro.boxoffice.com/weekend-forecast-captain-america-civil-war/

And also forecasting <50% drop for JB, thought it would take a bigger hit when CW opens.

 

[Silver Surfer]

Can you imagine being Alan Horn right now? After ending the year with SW7 to Zootopia killing it, to Jungle Book massacring it, and now to CW annihilating the box office soon. And Disney still has Finding Dory, Doc Strange, Moana, and Rogue One to come. Horn must be on cloud 9.

 

[johnboy3434]

And now my predictions based on BO.com's final forecast...

Opening Weekend: $214M
-Opening Day: $84.7M
--Thursday previews: $19.3M
--Friday: $65.4M
-Saturday: $72.9M (-14%)
-Sunday: $56.4M (-22.6%)

2nd Weekend: $114M (-46.8%)
3rd Weekend: $66.4M (-41.6%)
4th Weekend: $42.9M (-35.3%)
5th Weekend: $22.8M (-46.9%)
6th Weekend: $14.4M (-37%)
7th Weekend: $10.9M (-24.1%)
8th Weekend: $7.65M (-29.8%)
9th Weekend: $5M (-34.7%)
10th Weekend: $2.95M (-41.1%)

TOTAL DOMESTIC GROSS: $677M (3.16x)

Pulled-from-My-Ass Total Foreign Gross: $824M
PROJECTED WORLDWIDE GROSS: $1.5G

 

[third3ye]

Can you imagine being Alan Horn right now? After ending the year with SW7 to Zootopia killing it, to Jungle Book massacring it, and now to CW annihilating the box office soon. And Disney still has Finding Dory, Doc Strange, Moana, and Rogue One to come. Horn must be on cloud 9.

Hey man, at his age he's gotta fill up his retirement fund fast, can't be wasting no time on crappy films that don't sell

 

[third3ye]

TOTAL DOMESTIC GROSS: $677M (3.16x)

Pulled-from-My-Ass Total Foreign Gross: $824M
PROJECTED WORLDWIDE GROSS: $1.5G

I like your DOM cume, but slight difference of opinion from me, it seems a little high and also I can't see the OS cume being over $100m less than AoU's $946m, so that seems way too low. $1.5b WWBO is fairly reasonable, just differing opinions on which territories those dollars are coming from, though I believe $1.6b is well within reach.

 

[JB33]

And now my predictions based on BO.com's final forecast...

Opening Weekend: $214M
-Opening Day: $84.7M
--Thursday previews: $19.3M
--Friday: $65.4M
-Saturday: $72.9M (-14%)
-Sunday: $56.4M (-22.6%)

2nd Weekend: $114M (-46.8%)
3rd Weekend: $66.4M (-41.6%)
4th Weekend: $42.9M (-35.3%)
5th Weekend: $22.8M (-46.9%)
6th Weekend: $14.4M (-37%)
7th Weekend: $10.9M (-24.1%)
8th Weekend: $7.65M (-29.8%)
9th Weekend: $5M (-34.7%)
10th Weekend: $2.95M (-41.1%)

TOTAL DOMESTIC GROSS: $677M (3.16x)

Pulled-from-My-Ass Total Foreign Gross: $824M
PROJECTED WORLDWIDE GROSS: $1.5G

So you still maintain that low foreign gross, huh? Interesting. You realize it's currently tracking like Avengers: Age of Ultron overseas, right?

I certainly hope your domestic gross comes true though!

 

[third3ye]

$677m DOM would be a dream but I'm doubting it'll get there. TA had a 3.0 multiplier and I think that's the best CW could do with a $214m opening. 2.9-2.95x might be a little easier to believe and that gets us to a $620m-$630m DOM cume. Now THAT is a number I'd hang my hat on.

 

[johnboy3434]

So you still maintain that low foreign gross, huh? Interesting. You realize it's currently tracking like Avengers: Age of Ultron overseas, right?

I certainly hope your domestic gross comes true though!

My thinking with the overseas total is that certain areas won't take kindly to a certain word being in the title.

That and the fact that the two films I'm comparing it against aren't exactly a good fit for projecting the foreign markets. One was made before the late-00s boom, and the other probably has a higher domestic-to-foreign ratio than CW is going to end up having. I just included them for funsies. I'm mainly focusing on trying to predict the domestic gross.

 

[grieven]

Can you imagine being Alan Horn right now? After ending the year with SW7 to Zootopia killing it, to Jungle Book massacring it, and now to CW annihilating the box office soon. And Disney still has Finding Dory, Doc Strange, Moana, and Rogue One to come. Horn must be on cloud 9.

Yeah, Disney's riding an epic wave. They also have Alice Through the Looking Glass later this month, but not sure if that will be another success or a bump in glory road.

 

[Silver Surfer]

Hey man, at his age he's gotta fill up his retirement fund fast, can't be wasting no time on crappy films that don't sell

I know Iger gets all the credit, and he deserves his props, but Horn to me doesn't get nearly the recognition he deserves, the guy has turned Disney's film division into something mythical level great.

 

[third3ye]

I know Iger gets all the credit, and he deserves his props, but Horn to me doesn't get nearly the recognition he deserves, the guy has turned Disney's film division into something mythical level great.

Variety did a piece on Horn recently, he's getting some cred:
http://variety.com/2016/film/news/alan-horn-disney-chairman-1201749971/

He'll get more recognition as the year progresses from the trades for sure, the way 2016 is shaping up for Disney.

 

[Silver Surfer]

The man now celebrated as the rare Hollywood executive who is both successful and beloved almost got run off in his first foray into the creative side of the business more than 30 years ago. Then, after a dozen years Horn spent cementing Warner Bros. as a dominant force in the ferociously competitive film business, Time Warner boss Jeff Bewkes sent him packing in 2011, for no apparent reason other than his age. Horn was 68.

WB really messed up, they killed their golden goose. Can you imagine Horn shepherding a DCCU? Man...

 

[StormC]

I hope we don't get disappointed if this movie "only" grosses 1.3 billion like how the RT thread freaks out every time we get a rotten review (despite staying in the 90s). That said, I'm fairly confident this will beat AOU and challenge Avengers. If the legs are really, really good? The dream would be to beat JW, but who knows.

I honestly think 210+ OW is a lock though.

 

[Iceman]

Another good thing about this movie is that it's excellently paced.

It doesn't feel like a long movie at all. There are no wasted scenes.

Slightly off topic but if the Russo bros did this good with this film I really can't wait to see them tackle Infinity War or whatever they end up calling it. That's gonna be huge!

Having to handle so many characters effectively makes this one of the hardest comic book films to get right to date. Best possible audition for Infinity War and I think we have the best people for the job.

 

[StormC]

I just hope the Russos don't burn out. They are tackling four big blockbuster movies in the span of five years, three of them big ensemble pieces, two of them back-to-back. They'll be rolling in the dough big time though, which is great for them. Who could imagine two sitcom directors would make some of the best superhero movies of all time and become the backbone of the MCU?