Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 3

Discussion in 'Captain America: Civil War' started by Thread Manager, Jun 6, 2016.

  1. InCali I got a pUpgrade!

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    I think it does. There wasn't much difference between the OS numbers for TWS and TDW and I think it's fair to say that TWS was seen to be a better movie. I believe a comparable Thor movie would do much, MUCH better than a CA movie OS. We'll see how Ragnarok fares and if it's really good and doesn't do that well, I'll be just like everybody else and come up with an excuse for why. :woot:

    Maybe it'll be too "deep" and "complex" for the stupid GA or something...... :o
     
  2. Ozbridge Registered

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    CW had a $440,053 Thursday, dropping 20% from Wednesday, which is a really steep Wed-Thu drop.

    Domestic: $398,980,969 34.8%
    + Foreign: $746,241,000 65.2%
    = Worldwide: $1,145,221,969

    BO Mojo

    If we compare CW with TDW, which has a little better leg than CW (a 2.4 multiplier compared to CW's 2.3X if we're optimistic), TDW still made 11M more after a 6.5M (5th) week. In its 6th week CW made 6.4M so hopefully it can get 11M more to inch above IM3.

    On OS side, CW's box office is dropping fast:
    May 23 - 29: 23.8M
    May 30 - Jun 5: 12.2M
    Jun 6 - 12: 3.3M
    I guess OS can make at most 3M more, so even if CW passes IM3 domestically (which is a quite big if), it's unlikely to pass Minions WW.
     
    #77 Ozbridge, Jun 17, 2016
    Last edited: Jun 17, 2016
  3. DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs Registered

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    Hmm, saw something on Bookface that said CW crossed $400m at the DOM BO. Seems they jumped the gun by a day or so.
     
  4. Endeavor Que bolá con el timbeque?

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    I think they're reporting north america as domestic, counting Canada
     
  5. DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs Registered

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    I thought that was always how DOM BO was reported?
     
  6. third3ye Registered

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    I think they have an hourly view of the Friday receipts, that's why they were able to report it crossing $400m before the daily has posted.
     
  7. Kanon Crazy

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    Deadline is reporting that with Friday's numbers, it's crossing the 400M (no specifics)

    Depending on how much it made FRI, it's the #8 or #9 all time fastest to 400M
     
  8. Ozbridge Registered

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    Ok so now it's clear that even with Friday number CW hadn't crossed 400M (Friday number is estimated only but I don't think it can increase from 575k estimate to 1019k official to make it cross 400M on Friday).

    CW will be #10 fastest of all time to 400M after 44 days, behind Catching Fire (42 days) and Shrek 2 (43 days).

    A bit off-topic: I don't understand why the hell Zootopia Friday number can nearly DOUBLE last Friday number On The Same Day Dory Is Released. Like, wut??? (Jungle Book reasonably had the biggest Fri-to-Fri drop so far at 49%)

    Edit: I'm not sure how long CW can be #10 fastest to 400M though, if Dory indeed gets 130M+ OW and it has the same leg like Jungle Book (3.22X by Day 43) then passing 400M in less than 44 days will be piece of cake. It might still have the same leg like Zootopia or Finding Nemo though (both got 4X+ by Day 43) but I'm being conservative.
     
    #83 Ozbridge, Jun 18, 2016
    Last edited: Jun 18, 2016
  9. JKKS085 Registered

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    Double feature with Dory maybe ?

    Very poor Friday number for CW after another 30%+ theater count drop.
    The competition and the amount of new releases really killed CW's momentum.

    I'm wondering how the film would have performed if it switched release dates with BvS.
     
  10. Chesterfield Registered

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    It most certainly would have made more money with 3 weeks of no competition and people being off for the easter holidays. In any case, CW is a huge success in every respect.
     
  11. gerrym51 Registered

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    1.16 billion is still very good
     
  12. Ctfxcwatcher Registered

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    The estimated dom total is now
    401,277,176.
     
  13. kedrell Fork&SpoonOperator

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    Yes, as predicted back after it's OW, $400m was pretty much a lock from that point on. Doesn't change the fact that legs-wise this certainly will end up the poorest performer in the MCU but I guess that's the trade off with a heavily continuity dependent aspect to the film beyond any other mcu film that came before it. This seems to play out OS as well. I'll take that trade-off if it means we can get a movie like this which would have been impossible(or at least not worth bothering to do in the first place) w/o the continuity aspect giving all the needed depth to this movie. Predicting a $408-$409m DOM finish and a $1.165b WW finish. Hey, at least it should beat Minions and come in #11 all time WW after IM3.
     
    #88 kedrell, Jun 19, 2016
    Last edited: Jun 21, 2016
  14. AvengerPA Registered

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    This is the fourth consecutive movie starring RDJ as Iron Man that has made $400 million domestically, and $1 billion globally. Avengers, Iron Man 3, Avengers: Age of Ultron, and Captain America: Civil War have all come out in a five year span. Can he do it again with Spider-Man: Homecoming next year.
     
  15. Ozbridge Registered

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    BO Mojo messed up again, they report OS BO as of June 12 as 746.2M, but current OS BO is 743.6M???

    There's no way Iron Man has substantial role in SMH like he did in CW so I doubt RDJ has much influence to SMH BO (though it doesn't necessary mean it's impossible for SMH to cross 400M dom, 1B WW is a bit easier though)
     
  16. StormC Custom User Title?

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    I think Iron Man's role will be like Black Widow in IM2; maybe a half dozen or so extended dialogue sequences and one meaty action scene. Homecoming could do a billion if all the chips fall into place but it'll be very difficult. It should clear 750M barring a critical disappointment though (<75% on RT).
     
  17. seriesofdreams Registered

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    Glad to see this move has done so well. $400+ domestic and w/ $1 billion total is something to be celebrated, not to be lamented. I'm extremely happy and hope Doctor Strange does well in the fall (Ant-Man numbers plus, perhaps?)
     
  18. Raiden Wakanda Forever

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    Yeah, not to mention that it received very positive reviews. I do think the pirated copy hurt this movie, especially oversea, but it is still a huge success across the board. And MCU is in a better position because of it.
     
  19. Tymminator The Main Man in Minnesota

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    I'm glad for this movie's success, along with Deadpool that makes 2 comic-based movies this year that I really enjoyed and didn't disappoint. I'm hoping Suicide Squad and Dr Strange will be solid as well.
     
  20. KangConquers Purple Kang, Purple Kang

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    The strong dollar hurt much more than the pirated copy.

    Civil War sold more tickets overseas than The Avengers and Iron Man 3, but made 16.67% less money because the exchange rate was so high in 2012.

    By today's money, Avengers would've made roughly $1.35 B, and Iron Man would've made about $1.075-1.1 B WW.

    By 2012-2013 money, Civil War and Age of Ultron would've made about 10% less domestic, but would have made about $950 M and $1.1 B foreign, for totals of about $1.25 and $1.5 B.
     
  21. Flint Marko Bring me Thanos

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    Wow, didn't realize that. Those numbers are pretty staggering.
     
  22. InCali I got a pUpgrade!

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    Interesting. I find this type of comparison more compelling than the adjusted for inflation numbers (ie ticket price inflation); although I'm sure there is some linkage, a ticket basically costs the same in another currency if it's fairly recent.
     
  23. KangConquers Purple Kang, Purple Kang

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    When I went to England 12 years ago, the exchange rate was about $2/1 pound, yet a fish filet at mcdonalds would still be 5 pounds, so I was spending $10 on a meal.

    The exchange rate is much more favorable now, but the ticket prices haven't necessarily increased/ decreased with ours abroad.
     
  24. Ozbridge Registered

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    As of Jun 21
    Domestic: $401,944,578 35.1%
    + Foreign: $743,657,000 64.9%
    = Worldwide: $1,145,601,578

    CW is currently 1.6M above IM3 right now, though it is making 25-30k less than IM3 on weekdays. TBH I think it's more likely that CW will finish below IM3 than above it.

    Off-topic: I am honestly having trouble looking at Dory number right now, like, 20M+ weekday? None of the Avengers movies has anything close to that, in fact, the recent movies with 20M+ weekday are JW, SW:TFA, The Dark Knight and Catch Fire, which all end up making at least 424M.
     
  25. InCali I got a pUpgrade!

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    Exactly my point. Yes. There will be a component of ticket price inflation, but the direct translation to US $$$ via the exchange rate can happen much more quickly and seems to me to be much more significant during those times of change.
     

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