Civil War Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 3

[kedrell]

It's gonna be a real squeker as to whether it or IM3 prevails DOM. They should finish within less than $1m of each other. WW however is done. IM3 will remain on top now.

 

[InCali]

As of Jun 21
Domestic: $401,944,578 35.1%
+ Foreign: $743,657,000 64.9%
= Worldwide: $1,145,601,578

CW is currently 1.6M above IM3 right now, though it is making 25-30k less than IM3 on weekdays. TBH I think it's more likely that CW will finish below IM3 than above it.

Off-topic: I am honestly having trouble looking at Dory number right now, like, 20M+ weekday? None of the Avengers movies has anything close to that, in fact, the recent movies with 20M+ weekday are JW, SW:TFA, The Dark Knight and Catch Fire, which all end up making at least 424M.

Summertime and us parents get sucked into watching cartoons by the curtain crawlers....repeatedly.....I don't even want to think about how many times I saw Lion King and Shrek...ugh.....

 

[Ctfxcwatcher]

The strong dollar hurt much more than the pirated copy.

Civil War sold more tickets overseas than The Avengers and Iron Man 3, but made 16.67% less money because the exchange rate was so high in 2012.

By today's money, Avengers would've made roughly $1.35 B, and Iron Man would've made about $1.075-1.1 B WW.

By 2012-2013 money, Civil War and Age of Ultron would've made about 10% less domestic, but would have made about $950 M and $1.1 B foreign, for totals of about $1.25 and $1.5 B.

Wow...

 

[KangConquers]

Wow, didn't realize that. Those numbers are pretty staggering.

They would be kind of inflated by the fact that China has grown exponentially in the past 3-4 years. China accounted for 25.4% of Civil War's foreign, 25.3% of AoU's and only 9.5% of A1's.

Age of Ultron would narrowly beat Avengers 1 in "Chinese free" Foreign Box office total ticket sales. Civil War wouldn't. It makes it all really complicated to truly compare how films really did, but rest assured, the MCU isn't starting to bomb abroad. A stronger American dollar is just deflating the total.

 

[ImSGirl95]

The MCU won't start to bomb in the near years.

 

[Doctor Octopus]

Agreed. It show no signs of slowing down. Ant-Man is character nobody heard of and he make good success. Marvel know how to make money.

 

[gerrym51]

Has this finished overseas?

 

[metaphysician]

*checks* Not quite, but close. It still made something well over 100K overseas last weekend.

 

[ironman_rick]

Looks like CW will be the 2nd highest grosser (domestic at least) this summer. Finding Dory is on target to hit $500M domestic ....

 

[Chesterfield]

The overseas numbers for Dory seem to be a little low.

 

[Zant]

The overseas numbers for Dory seem to be a little low.

Japan should add another 100mil when its released there.

 

[Ozbridge]

The overseas numbers for Dory seem to be a little low.

Dory has very, very staggered release, hasn't been opened in big markets like UK, Korea, Japan (which should indeed add about 100M+), Mexico, Germany, Italy, Spain, etc. I'm in Europe and I have to wait till mid-August.

Back to CW, even though it can't match IR3 BO either DOM or OS but it's helped the MCU BO to cross 10B WW and today (July 4th) it'll cross 4B DOM.

Disney has made 7.94B WW from the movies they distributed, which means roughly 4B revenue, minus 1.65B (total budget of those movies) and they get 2.35B profit. That means they're more than half way getting back the 4.24B they spent to buy Marvel back in 2009.

(Obviously I have ignored the profit from other sources like merchandising, tie-ins, TV rights... for obvious reasons.)

 

[Chesterfield]

Damn I didn't realise Dory hadn't opened up in so many overseas markets. It definitely makes sense as to why the numbers appear low. It was just a bit jarring to see compared to the domestic intake.

 

[KangConquers]

Dory has very, very staggered release, hasn't been opened in big markets like UK, Korea, Japan (which should indeed add about 100M+), Mexico, Germany, Italy, Spain, etc. I'm in Europe and I have to wait till mid-August.

Back to CW, even though it can't match IR3 BO either DOM or OS but it's helped the MCU BO to cross 10B WW and today (July 4th) it'll cross 4B DOM.

Disney has made 7.94B WW from the movies they distributed, which means roughly 4B revenue, minus 1.65B (total budget of those movies) and they get 2.35B profit. That means they're more than half way getting back the 4.24B they spent to buy Marvel back in 2009.

(Obviously I have ignored the profit from other sources like merchandising, tie-ins, TV rights... for obvious reasons.)

Civil War is still tracking ahead of IM3 domestic by $100k, and made $6k more than it Tuesday. It hasn't failed domestically yet.

 

[Doctor Octopus]

Looks like CW will be the 2nd highest grosser (domestic at least) this summer. Finding Dory is on target to hit $500M domestic ....

They both great movies.

 

[marcvader]

So far:

Domestic: $405,730,681 35.3%
+ Foreign: $744,357,830 64.7%
= Worldwide: $1,150,088,511

Fantastic numbers.

 

[Ozbridge]

Civil War is still tracking ahead of IM3 domestic by $100k, and made $6k more than it Tuesday. It hasn't failed domestically yet.

No CW only tracks ahead IM3 by 44k and made 1.9k more on Tuesday. And that's because for some reason IM3 didn't have Tuesday boost while CW's Tuesday is its "organic" Tuesday.

CW might magically have stronger leg at the very end of its run but I won't (and don't advise anyone to) hold breath.

 

[Doctor Octopus]

So far:

Domestic: $405,730,681 35.3%
+ Foreign: $744,357,830 64.7%
= Worldwide: $1,150,088,511

Fantastic numbers.

Brilliant numbers.

 

[Ozbridge]

CA:CW ended its theatrical run last Thursday with 408.084M DOM and 1.153B WW. It didn't passes IM3 (neither DOM nor WW) but it passes Hunger Games and is No 19 DOM right now (will be No 20 at the end of the year) so it's a quite ok. Final multiplier is 2.278X.

On other note I don't understand why Jungle Book, which was released 3 weeks before CW, is still in theaters and still making money.

 

[AlluAllu]

Civil War's core audience looked forward to the film and went to see it as soon as possible. Whereas Jungle Book is that kind of a movie that attracts families who decide to go see something at movies.

 

[I Am The Knight]

I feel like this film didn't quite break out the way it was supposed to. I mean it did great, but not as great as I hoped it would.

 

[Vincanws]

I feel like this film didn't quite break out the way it was supposed to. I mean it did great, but not as great as I hoped it would.

How much did you want it to make to be great as you hoped it would?

 

[Iceman]

The numbers are great but I guess the expectations were even higher after announcements of Stark, Spidey and then 200 hundred other Avengers. t:

We're getting a better hold on the range that these kind of films can do now although I hope IW makes us rethink that once more!

 

[ironman_rick]

Looks like Rogue 1 is gonna end its run with WW gross of < $1.1B

So....it looks like CA:CW is the top grossing movie of 2016. t:

 

[Reek]

Who gives a ****?

But thanks for bumping the thread...