Civil War Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[marcvader]

AoU seemed like a big Avengers movie and was promoted as such especially with the inclusion of Hulk and Thor while Civil War did not to me. It was a Captain America movie that had a lot of other heroes in it as well.

 

[gerrym51]

Looks like we are about done. The guy who said $1.1B a while back was pretty much right.

what can i say

 

[See Cap Run]

A simple way to explain this is:

CW is a Cap-centric Avenger movie,

AOU is an IronMan-centric Avenger movie,

IronMan is more popular than Cap among general audience, which leads to the difference in box office performance.

People sometimes talk about it like it's an Avengers movie but it truly is a Cap sequel above all else with most of his fellow Avengers in it.

If it were actually an Avengers movie, it would need to have Hulk and Thor as well as have all the Avengers, not just Cap and Iron Man, fight in the final battle.

 

[See Cap Run]

AoU seemed like a big Avengers movie and was promoted as such especially with the inclusion of Hulk and Thor while Civil War did not to me. It was a Captain America movie that had a lot of other heroes in it as well.

Looks like you beat me to it.

 

[SamWinchester]

Will Civil War get over $400 million domestic? The goal now is to break the $400 million domestic mark. I would like for it to get to $410 million domestic to beat IM3 which was not a good film.

 

[Ctfxcwatcher]

Will Civil War get over $400 million domestic? The goal now is to break the $400 million domestic mark. I would like for it to get to $410 million domestic to beat IM3 which was not a good film.

I think it gets to 400 dom but I don't think it beats IM3 409 dom. It will probably inch to 400 and end at 401 maybe 405.

Lol I'm not the best at math though

 

[Lantern Venom]

Thats because Arnold was always the same guy in every movie.

.

 

[Raiden]

Lack of an Avengers brand name and not playing like an Avengers movie are what kept it from performing like an Avengers movie.

My only expectation was it would beat Iron Man 3, but we're gonna look at Harry Potter-like performances from here on out.

A billion's still a billion. Let's not get up in arms here.

Exactly. CW grosses over 1.1 bil and has a 90 RT score. Everything after these is gravy.

 

[Bruce Malone]

AoU seemed like a big Avengers movie and was promoted as such especially with the inclusion of Hulk and Thor while Civil War did not to me. It was a Captain America movie that had a lot of other heroes in it as well.

CW was promoted as pretty much an Avengers films but it was a Captain America film in the end.

If it was promoted as a straight-up WS sequel we wouldn't have seen the BO predictions this film had.

 

[Dark Raven]

Well Cap is at #12 now in the all-time highest list, below Minions and Iron Man 3, but just above Transformers: Dark Side of the Moon.

I don't know if it can reach Minions.

 

[gerrym51]

The most shocking thing about ARNOLD- is that he is only 5 feet 11 inches tall.

Movies always made him look much taller-at least to me.

 

[Iceman]

what can i say

Yes, well predicted

It's fallen off much quicker than I'd expected and as you said, the overseas had already reached crawl stage back then.

 

[Kanon]

Well Cap is at #12 now in the all-time highest list, below Minions and Iron Man 3, but just above Transformers: Dark Side of the Moon.

I don't know if it can reach Minions.

It needs $28M to pass Minions.

If it crosses the 400M mark DOM, that's $12M, it would need $16M OS. I think it's possible. IM3 is so out of reach though

 

[Endeavor]

I think it will get to 400m DOM. This movie has at least 5 more weeks in theaters. There's no way it doesn't make 12m, and then some.
It is very likely it will pass the Minions, if overseas numbers hold up.

 

[JKKS085]

Civil War is so far 3 millions ahead of Iron Man 3 after 31 days of release.
However its dailies are a little lower (by about 8% over last week end). We should also not that Civil War managed a significantly better post memorial day week end drop than IM3 which is an encouraging sign moving forward and the film could very well be pulling ahead in dailies next week end.

IM3 went to make another 24M dom after its 5th week end.
Assuming the gap in CW's dailies stabilises around 8% lower than IM3 for the rest of its theater run, that's another 21M or so for a finish right around 409M, tied up with IM3.
If the gap gets smaller (like this week end might suggest) and Civil War catches up on IM3's dailies then it can do 412M +.

It's all gonna be heavily dependent on how long Disney intends to keep it in theaters and how they are going to play its second run in dollar theaters but I think its final domestic gross should land anywhere between 406/413M with still a chance at outgrossing IM3 (domestically).

So yeah, long story short, Minions is going down anyway.

 

[KangConquers]

Civil War is so far 3 millions ahead of Iron Man 3 after 31 days of release.
However its dailies are a little lower (by about 8% over last week end). We should also not that Civil War managed a significantly better post memorial day week end drop than IM3 which is an encouraging sign moving forward and the film could very well be pulling ahead in dailies next week end.

IM3 went to make another 24M dom after its 5th week end.
Assuming the gap in CW's dailies stabilises around 8% lower than IM3 for the rest of its theater run, that's another 21M or so for a finish right around 409M, tied up with IM3.
If the gap gets smaller (like this week end might suggest) and Civil War catches up on IM3's dailies then it can do 412M +.

It's all gonna be heavily dependent on how long Disney intends to keep it in theaters and how they are going to play its second run in dollar theaters but I think its final domestic gross should land anywhere between 406/413M with still a chance at outgrossing IM3 (domestically).

So yeah, long story short, Minions is going down anyway.

This movie has sort of slightly underperformed at every turn.

I see it dying at $400 M domestic, and failing to beat Minions. Not that it really matters. The movie is a critical and commercial success, and no one should feel disappointed by how it did.

 

[djsunyc]

imho, superhero over saturation. i think everyone's estimated #'s need to start coming down.

 

[JOE]

imho, superhero over saturation. i think everyone's estimated #'s need to start coming down.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/yearly/chart/?view2=worldwide&yr=2016&p=.htm

#1 grossing movie of 2016 with a 13% cushion and growing. It's not the movie's fault that people are predicting 1.5B. This movie did fantastic.

 

[Kanon]

Superhero movies so far have grossed 25% of the total boxoffice of 2016, by the end of the year it'll most like be something like 15-20%.

I think it's a little too soon to talk about fatigue.

 

[Vincanws]

This movie has sort of slightly underperformed at every turn.

I see it dying at $400 M domestic, and failing to beat Minions. Not that it really matters. The movie is a critical and commercial success, and no one should feel disappointed by how it did.

"Underperformed" .. But according to whose projections? Disney? The word seems awkward when talking about a sequel that's earned quite a bit more than Cap 2 did after all. And fourth (third?) most successful CBM ever and stuff.

And ... arghhh, the fatigue thing got mentioned again ...

 

[Endeavor]

It's already made more than 4 times it's budget. There's no way Disney sees it as being an under-performer.
Did a lot of us fans think it would have made more? Yes.
I think it deserved to make more than it has, because it's a great film.
But, it passed the 1B threshold, which is what I wanted. So I'm happy. And I think that the powers that be at Disney and Marvel Studios are more than pleased.

 

[InCali]

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/yearly/chart/?view2=worldwide&yr=2016&p=.htm

#1 grossing movie of 2016 with a 13% cushion and growing. It's not the movie's fault that people are predicting 1.5B. This movie did fantastic.

Exactly right. Over predicting the BO #s does not equal over saturation of the genre. People like me being wildly unrealistic doesn't mean anything other than I don't know what the frell I'm talking about.

 

[Xrated48]

It will pass minions but will come short of iron man 3 the way it's going

 

[JB33]

This movie has sort of slightly underperformed at every turn.

I see it dying at $400 M domestic, and failing to beat Minions. Not that it really matters. The movie is a critical and commercial success, and no one should feel disappointed by how it did.

This pretty much sums up my thoughts perfectly. The film underperformed but overall it was still a huge success. I think it's a fair, logical statement.

 

[JB33]

"Underperformed" .. But according to whose projections? Disney? The word seems awkward when talking about a sequel that's earned quite a bit more than Cap 2 did after all. And fourth (third?) most successful CBM ever and stuff.

And ... arghhh, the fatigue thing got mentioned again ...

Underperformed relative to box office trends, at least for tentpole Marvel films. People who understand box office get what that means. Other people just see that term and take issue with it. There's a difference between underperforming based on box office trends and underperforming, period. It obviously did not underperform in general. Anyone can see that.