Civil War Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 3

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This is a continuation thread, the old thread is [split]514389[/split]

 

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This is a continuation thread, the old thread is [split]513865[/split]

 

[InCali]

Confirmed actuals: $7.83M over the weekend
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/

So it actually performed a bit above expectations, which were for about $7.5M. Maybe we're at the stage where the movie starts steadying a bit and even exceeding expectations. The weekdays will be telling.

Domestic: $389,178,636
Foreign: $742,900,000
Worldwide: $1,132,078,636

I just don't see it as under performing in any way, shape, or form; except compared to my own expectations....which don't amount to a drop in the bucket and aren't worth the pixels I use to display them.

I don't see how it under performed according to trends (or whatever word it was that you used). TFA did well. TWS did better. CW did better than either and by quite a bit. Not sure what comparisons you are using.

 

[metaphysician]

Well, let me crack some numbers. . .

Civil War is a 47% increase in production budget over Winter Soldier. This has resulted, so far, in a 58% increase in gross revenue, and still rising.

Seems fine to me.

 

[Ctfxcwatcher]

Should be hitting about 390 today? Hope so.

 

[Ctfxcwatcher]

$837,255 for Monday. Domestic total now stands at $390,015,891

 

[Erzengel]

So $2M for Tues-Thurs and maybe a $4M weekend, putting it $4M shy of 400M.

 

[Dark Raven]

So when might it pass Minions?

 

[KangConquers]

$837,255 for Monday. Domestic total is now stands at $390,015,891

10% over Iron Man 3 in the same frame.

 

[KangConquers]

Well, let me crack some numbers. . .

Civil War is a 47% increase in production budget over Winter Soldier. This has resulted, so far, in a 58% increase in gross revenue, and still rising.

Seems fine to me.

The other thing is a box office tent pole with a larger scope like this comes with increased merchandise sales. So on top of that 58% increase in revenue, I imagine merchandise is up equally as much, if not more. Having Iron Man under the merchandising umbrella of the film could double Winter Soldier's merch.

 

[KangConquers]

So when might it pass Minions?

Probably kicking, screaming, and dragging to the finish line at the end of it's run.

 

[JOE]

Will it reach 400M DOM?

 

[marcvader]

Will it reach 400M DOM?

Yes. Probably in two weeks.

 

[hafizbat]

The other thing is a box office tent pole with a larger scope like this comes with increased merchandise sales. So on top of that 58% increase in revenue, I imagine merchandise is up equally as much, if not more. Having Iron Man under the merchandising umbrella of the film could double Winter Soldier's merch.

Not to mention it gave Spidey and BP a huge boost! As we saw with TA leading to IM3, that's no small deal.

 

[Stark Bauer]

It will be interesting to see if CW can pass IM3

 

[Ctfxcwatcher]

$995,368 for Tuesday total domestic number is now $391,011,259

 

[JKKS085]

Well the last couple of days show just as expected that the movie is now consistently pulling ahead of Iron Man 3 in dailies. If that trend holds over the week end we could be looking at a 6th FSS of 6M or so and a total domestic cume, a million or so shy of 400M, at round 399M.
That is of course assuming that another tentpole doesn't open this week end which I am just to lazy to check right now (or that the movie's theater count doesn't drop dramatically).

If the actual numbers unfold like these projections the film would have a shot at 415M+ dom.

 

[JOE]

Solid numbers! That's all I wanted was it to clear 400M, glad to see it's a lock.

 

[shinlyle]

Glad to see that this will pass 400M!! Awesome!
Those who are calling the Box Office disappointing must be reading a different chart than I read. It's the Number ONE movie worldwide by a substantial margin. I think that's beyond good enough.

 

[Kanon]

Very good MON and TUE numbers, 400M is a lock, 410M is a stretch but on the table, and is more than likely to become the 8th movie all time fastest to 400M (currently Hunger Games Catching Fire with 400M in 42 days, CW could reach that by day 39-40)

 

[Dark Raven]

Still a bit of a way to go to overtake Minions.

 

[InCali]

Here's something I don't understand when it comes to predicting the final BO totals of CW. At this point in time (Day 33 in the books), CW is a little over 4M ahead of IM3. In addition, CW appears to be slightly outperforming IM3 on a daily basis. Given that, why is it that a lot of people seem to think that it may be a stretch for CW to pass IM3's DOM totals? Did IM3 hold up exceptionally well late in its run? Did it have an exceptionally long run? Does CW have tougher competition than IM3 had and expected to fade faster?

One thing I noticed is that at the end of IM3's run (day 70 on BOM) that it had taken in a bit over 406M. The summary says that it took in a little over 409M, but doesn't indicate a re-release in the all time DOM totals (with a ^ next to it).

Color me frelling confused. I'm pretty good with numbers, but don't pretend to understand BO details the way some people on these threads do.

Experts? What say you?

 

[third3ye]

Maybe other people think otherwise, but at this stage it looks like it'll just barely beat IM3's DOM. It's got about $18m to go and with the weak reviews for a lot of the new entrants, a lot of theaters will likely keep CW in a small number of screens for the next several weeks. If we take IM3's DOM performance after Week 4 and apply that to CW, we would land around $413m final DOM, but as mentioned CW is actually outpacing IM3 so it should at least hit that number. Internationally though it's not keeping up with IM3, CW lost a lot of screens when XMA was released and will probably lose more for Warcraft, which is doing quite well in China and other territories. I think CW still has a good shot at just barely beating Minions but will probably end up about $40-$50m lower than IM3 for WWBO.

 

[Iceman]

Once that $400m is up that's my last remaining goal. Not long at all now!

 

[InCali]

Maybe other people think otherwise, but at this stage it looks like it'll just barely beat IM3's DOM. It's got about $18m to go and with the weak reviews for a lot of the new entrants, a lot of theaters will likely keep CW in a small number of screens for the next several weeks. If we take IM3's DOM performance after Week 4 and apply that to CW, we would land around $413m final DOM, but as mentioned CW is actually outpacing IM3 so it should at least hit that number. Internationally though it's not keeping up with IM3, CW lost a lot of screens when XMA was released and will probably lose more for Warcraft, which is doing quite well in China and other territories. I think CW still has a good shot at just barely beating Minions but will probably end up about $40-$50m lower than IM3 for WWBO.

OK. Thanks. THAT makes some sense to me. While I just looked at a couple of factors, the trends I was seeing didn't seem to indicate it would fall short of IM3 DOM.

Still don't understand how IM3 gained 3M at the box office from day 70 to final numbers without a re-release though.....maybe someone at BOM will know, but since Ray left, I think it's gone seriously downhill. I haven't tried getting any info out of anyone there since he left.