Civil War Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[regnak]

Not compared to Marvel's other billion dollar films or to the other Captain America films.

Crappy legs was maybe too strong, but the legs are definitely weaker than you'd expect, given the argument for better legs than the likes of AoU and IM3 was that it was getting great reviews. Kind of surprising that it has turned out the opposite.

That may be but there was an article a page or two back about how CW would have already surpassed IM3 & the Avengers in the overseas gross if not for the difference in exchange rates. Big blockbusters during the recession may be extremely difficult to surpass for that reason.

 

[JOE]

Says you.

And I agree wholly about Downey. Yes, he is a draw, but only to a certain degree. An excellent example of that is the box office performance of The Judge.

I don't want to get technical, but RDJ as Tony Stark is the real draw. The proof is in the pudding.

 

[Iceman]

Yes RDJ as Tony Stark in the MCU is the magical combo..ideal role for him. He'll struggle to get a billion dollars playing a different character.

 

[ImSGirl95]

Yeah, RDJ as a random character in a drama movie like The Judge means about nothing. It may even end up being a flop.
But RDJ as Tony Stark is a whole different thing.

Same with the other actors
Evans as Cap
Hemsworth as Thor
etc.

even Jackman as Wolverine and Reynolds as Deadpool.

 

[gogolbb]

RDJ as Sherlock Holmes was quite a draw too.

The judge is a cliche family drama directed by a hack, containing absolutely ZERO elements that would make it a success at box-office. It would never have got a wide release without RDJ's name attached.

Movie stars are there to make sure a good movie not getting overlooked, they do not turn a bad movie into a good one.

 

[Ctfxcwatcher]

1,118,289 for Thursday

 

[Erzengel]

Using the standard weekend drop we have been seeing and whatever remaining foreign gross this weekend. CW should be the new #12 all time by the end of Sunday.

 

[JtheDreamer]

Certain actors make various roles their own like RDJ did with Stark or Depp did with Jack Sparrow. There is some trickle down effect from that into their other roles, but for the most part we're no longer seeing the days when Arnold headlining any ol' action movie brought everybody to the yard to watch.

The "type" of movie/role they're taking on influences the effect of the trickle down.

 

[daddydivine]

Certain actors make various roles their own like RDJ did with Stark or Depp did with Jack Sparrow. There is some trickle down effect from that into their other roles, but for the most part we're no longer seeing the days when Arnold headlining any ol' action movie brought everybody to the yard to watch.

The "type" of movie/role they're taking on influences the effect of the trickle down.

Thats because Arnold was always the same guy in every movie.

I think thats why Downey does well with the Sherlock franchise because he's basically Stark with an accent.

 

[StormC]

RDJ would be a draw if he did blockbusters besides Iron Man.

 

[Mysteryman]

RDJ would be a draw if he did blockbusters besides Iron Man.

it depends on the role.
Sherlock Holmes is a good fit for him.

 

[TheVileOne]

it depends on the role.
Sherlock Holmes is a good fit for him.

Well he hasn't done too many movies recently outside of Marvel and The Judge. Had the cameo in Chef. And then there was Due Date. So his high concept stuff outside Marvel post-Iron Man has a pretty good track record.

 

[Zant]

RDJ is no Leo Di Caprio when it comes to book office draw, that's for sure.

 

[gogolbb]

RDJ is no Leo Di Caprio when it comes to book office draw, that's for sure.

Not so sure about who the bigger draw is considering Leo DiCaprio works mostly with established directors. But I do think that DiCaprio is much better at picking his movies.

 

[Iceman]

RDJ is no Leo Di Caprio when it comes to book office draw, that's for sure.

RDJ is a great actor but I think Leo might be THE best (of his age). He can play very different personas and have the same draw while RDJ is loved most when he's RDJ (who is a very awesome person t.

 

[JB33]

BoxOffice Pro projects about $7.5M for this weekend.

 

[Ctfxcwatcher]

Estimated 7,591,000 for the weekend.



CAPTAIN AMERICA: CIVIL WAR made est. $4.2M overseas this weekend, for a $742.6M overseas / $1.131B global total. #CaptainAmerica #CivilWar

 

[Iceman]

Looks like we are about done. The guy who said $1.1B a while back was pretty much right.

 

[Coolkid]

I thought 1.3-1.4 billion would be an easy task for CW after the amazing reviews... It should've easily topped Age of Ultron for the word of mouth it received... I don't know what went wrong...!!!

 

[Spider-Fan]

Looking like it won't beat Iron Man 3 then?

 

[Ctfxcwatcher]

Seems like the GA are rejecting sequels at the box office this year. Well rejecting might be the wrong word but yeah...

 

[bubbadoom]

Looking like it won't beat Iron Man 3 then?

needs another $84 million ...

 

[StormC]

I thought 1.3-1.4 billion would be an easy task for CW after the amazing reviews... It should've easily topped Age of Ultron for the word of mouth it received... I don't know what went wrong...!!!

Lack of an Avengers brand name and not playing like an Avengers movie are what kept it from performing like an Avengers movie.

My only expectation was it would beat Iron Man 3, but we're gonna look at Harry Potter-like performances from here on out.

A billion's still a billion. Let's not get up in arms here.

 

[gerrym51]

Looking like it won't beat Iron Man 3 then?

it might in North America though i don;t think so but overseas it's probably going to be 50 million short.

 

[gogolbb]

I thought 1.3-1.4 billion would be an easy task for CW after the amazing reviews... It should've easily topped Age of Ultron for the word of mouth it received... I don't know what went wrong...!!!

A simple way to explain this is:

CW is a Cap-centric Avenger movie,

AOU is an IronMan-centric Avenger movie,

IronMan is more popular than Cap among general audience, which leads to the difference in box office performance.