Civil War Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[JB33]

I guess I'm the only one who likes the Transformers movies for what they are: pure fun action movies. I don't take them nearly as seriously as, or go for repeat viewings for, Star Wars/Marvel etc. but I enjoy them. Ditto for the Fast & Furious movies or Pirates of the Caribbean (one of my favourite film series, actually). Doesn't anyone know how to have good old fashioned mindless fun at the movies anymore?

 

[warcam]

BvS opened on Good Friday, so that may have something to do with it.

 

[Johnny-Oh]

I guess I'm the only one who likes the Transformers movies for what they are: pure fun action movies. I don't take them nearly as seriously as, or go for repeat viewings for, Star Wars/Marvel etc. but I enjoy them. Ditto for the Fast & Furious movies or Pirates of the Caribbean (one of my favourite film series, actually). Doesn't anyone know how to have good old fashioned mindless fun at the movies anymore?

Agreed completely

I think people might have been let down with AOU and nto be rushing to see this opening weekend,. i do think 2nd week sales will be great though.

If that was true AoU would have opened much higher than The Avengers.

I don't know why people here keep setting themselves up for disappointments?

First AoU and now CW. I never expected this to do over 200 million and I thought 180 was where it would land.

A1 was lighting in a bottle but I know there are going to be a bunch of 250 million OW predictions for IW.

People vastly underestimate the success of The Avengers and its gonna be REALLY HARD for a superhero movie to top that film at the box office. And people are already expecting $2 Billion for IW Part 2 which is really not going to happen.

A1 really was lighting in a bottle, funny enough someone posted this 2 days ago:

This movie will gross what Ultron should have, all that "TA1 was lightening In a bottle" BS was just that, BS.

 

[Gerontophobe]

I guess I'm the only one who likes the Transformers movies for what they are: pure fun action movies. I don't take them nearly as seriously as, or go for repeat viewings for, Star Wars/Marvel etc. but I enjoy them. Ditto for the Fast & Furious movies or Pirates of the Caribbean (one of my favourite film series, actually). Doesn't anyone know how to have good old fashioned mindless fun at the movies anymore?

I totally agree that there are some times when a simply "fun" movie is a great time. The last three F&F films were enjoyable enough and I think Jurassic World is in the same boat. I also love PoTC (except the fourth one). However, I can't stand Transformers as the acting and plot are just so bad that it takes me out of everything. (Also, RoTF somehow managed to offend and disgust me as well as bore.) I've gone back and watched several Bay films recently and I've disliked every single one. His shtick just isn't for me.

 

[Spiderdevil]

gotta admit i expected it to have a bigger opening it only has a 75 million Opening day BVS actually had a bigger opening day(81million) and it had terrible reviews

OW is indicative if marketing and hype, not reviews

 

[Spiderdevil]

I hope we are coming back to earth now, all these 210 ow and 650 Domestic predictions were so over the top

Like I said, Ultron is the roof for it, 1.1 to 1.4B is the range, probably about the same as IM3

 

[Ctfxcwatcher]

So is this out opening BvS?

 

[InCali]

I guess I'm the only one who likes the Transformers movies for what they are: pure fun action movies. I don't take them nearly as seriously as, or go for repeat viewings for, Star Wars/Marvel etc. but I enjoy them. Ditto for the Fast & Furious movies or Pirates of the Caribbean (one of my favourite film series, actually). Doesn't anyone know how to have good old fashioned mindless fun at the movies anymore?

Wulllll.....clearly you aren't the only one, but you really liked AoE? I just found it dull beyond words. I kind of liked the first one, but thought everything went downhill after that.

I don't mind big robots whacking each other, but felt that AoE was about on par with some cartoons I used to watch when I was knee high to a grasshopper. Maybe a step up from Power Rangers (which I had to watch because my little buddy loved them), but one would expect that given the budget.

Oh, BTW, CW will do just fine. I know there was a lot of 200M talk, but I always felt that anything even in that neighborhood was just fine. It's going to hold up quite well. It was a very, very good movie. I think it was a step up from TWS, but very similar in a lot of ways (which you'd expect given that it was the same directors).

 

[DieSmiling]

So is this out opening BvS?

Yeah, almost definitely. BvS had a huge Sunday drop, this shouldn't.

 

[Erzengel]

I guess I'm the only one who likes the Transformers movies for what they are: pure fun action movies. I don't take them nearly as seriously as, or go for repeat viewings for, Star Wars/Marvel etc. but I enjoy them. Ditto for the Fast & Furious movies or Pirates of the Caribbean (one of my favourite film series, actually). Doesn't anyone know how to have good old fashioned mindless fun at the movies anymore?

Because an action movie doesn't have to be mindless to be good.

Transformers and Pirates set bad examples to Studios that they don't have to care about being good for something to make money.

 

[Tony Stark]

This should have a pretty good multiplier for the weekend and good word of mouth. It's got an A cinemascore so the first Avengers still holds the top spot with an A+, but I think this will have very good legs.

I think people are getting too hung up over if this is an Avengers film, or if this is a Captain America film, the big issue for Marvel is the fact that with year after year release, it's hard to capture the same level of enthusiasm that they had when they came out with the first Avengers.

Overall this is a very high praise for this film, and it's a good number, will probably be in the IM3 range, hopefully better, maybe 180-185 with a big multiplier, but I was always cautious of thinking this would do over 200M.

I did not see the film in 3D but from what I've heard the 3D wasn't that good, and I can understand why with a lot of shaky cam action that just doesn't translate well in 3D. I have a feeling there will be a lower level of 3D compared to either Avengers film and that is going to hold it's totals back.

 

[Johnny-Oh]

In terms of the GA you can't blame them for paying for something they wanna watch, it's as simple as that. It doesn't have to be good, it just has to have something they enjoy watching.

 

[Havok83]

Well it certainly was a Captain America movie more so than the marketing let on.

Which is why I never agreed with those saying they should have just titled it "Avengers: Civil War" for marketing reasons or that it's a de-facto Avengers film, it was a Captain America movie.

I think those comments were valid bc going into it, I thought it would pretty much be an Avengers filmed and after viewing it, it did feel like an Avengers movie. It could have just as easily been marketted as the third Avengers movie. With that said, the title was fine as the plot was heavily inspired by Cap's own personal story arc from his previous solo outing

 

[TheVileOne]

WW or USA wise? Or are you talking about OW? I think it will most likely pass iron man 3 on both WW and USA over all. I mean Iron man 3 made about 409 USA by the end of its run. If this movie ends up making 180 OW and ends up only having multiple of 2.5 that would get the movie to 450 which is still more then iron man 3 and with it having better reviews It should have a better multiple then 2.5. WW after sunday it may only be about 500m behind Iron man 3 1.2 billion. Should be around half of Age of Ultron WW numbers by Monday.

I'm thinking final overseas and domestic box office tallies.

I think good reviews and word of mouth. could help it reach higher than Iron Man 3 and Age of Ultron.

 

[Bruce Malone]

I think those comments were valid bc going into it, I thought it would pretty much be an Avengers filmed and after viewing it, it did feel like an Avengers movie. It could have just as easily been marketted as the third Avengers movie. With that said, the title was fine as the plot was heavily inspired by Cap's own personal story arc from his previous solo outing

It was marketed as an Iron Man vs Cap film when Cap was arguably the protagonist of the film. The equal billing was slightly misleading. I think it was like an hour into the film before we actually saw Stark as Iron Man. While the film kicked off with Cap.

 

[Tony Stark]

If there's a boost in international it could very well blast past 1.3 billion. Also keep in mind the dollar is stronger now than it was in 2012 against world currency.

 

[JOE]

I'm still thinking between IM3 and AOU. Called it from the beginning!

 

[Mysteryman]

I think there was somebody here who thought CW might do 300 million domestically.

 

[Mysteryman]

I'm still thinking between IM3 and AOU. Called it from the beginning!

When you got it you got it,Right?

 

[WilliamK99]

Disney will be very happy with the 1.1 to 1.5 billion this film will end up with.... People are already freaking out about the less than anticipated opening weekend but it's not a big deal. Unlike a certain other superhero movie, there is no way this movie drops 70% next week, at most it will drop 60%....

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

Disney will be very happy with the 1.1 to 1.5 billion this film will end up with.... People are already freaking out about the less than anticipated opening weekend but it's not a big deal. Unlike a certain other superhero movie, there is no way this movie drops 70% next week, at most it will drop 60%....

I'm thinking just below 50% since it's so damn good and should have really good WOM.

 

[johnboy3434]

It got an "A" Cinemascore, so yeah, the word of mouth is definitely on the positive side. For reference:

B+ = "It was okay."
A- = "It was good."
A = "It was really good."
A+ = "I came."

 

[Johnny-Oh]

What was AoU's Cinemascore?

 

[johnboy3434]

What was AoU's Cinemascore?

It was an A as well. The audience didn't have a lot of the complaints that critics and nerds did.

 

[StormC]

It was marketed as an Iron Man vs Cap film when Cap was arguably the protagonist of the film. The equal billing was slightly misleading. I think it was like an hour into the film before we actually saw Stark as Iron Man. While the film kicked off with Cap.

Agreed. It does NOT feel like an Avengers movie when Cap is the only major active superhero figure for half of the film. It's very much Captain America And His Amazing Friends. As such, despite my initially high predictions for this movie, after seeing it, I can definitely see it going sub-AOU due to the lack of focus on non-Cap characters and less spectacle-driven action/more character-driven drama.