Civil War Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Chesterfield]

The title of the movie is fine and as someone who's seen the film 3 times, this is VERY much a captain America film.

 

[RLAAMJR.]

What I'm trying to say is that Civil War is a Marvel event. It was never a story focused on Captain America.

 

[MbJ]

You mean they went with a different title to make it the third Captain America film.

No, it was always a Captain America film.

 

[MbJ]

Surprisingly , Civil war only debut at no.3 in the japanese box office but with this week being the japanese golden week holidays , think the no. of people going to watch will be spread out throughout the week.

That's because a new Detective Conan movie just came out. Detective Conan is insanely popular in Japan, especially with kids and the family crowds (many of the people who go to see superhero films).

Still, it opened strongly. Variety says the opening was twice as big as the one Winter Soldier had.

 

[Kanon]

Gitesh Pandya @GiteshPandya

#CaptainAmericaCivilWar has now broken @Fandango advance sales record for superhero films beating both #BatmanvSuperman & #Ultron.

https://***********/GiteshPandya/status/727542713382526978

 

[Iceman]

Would be nice to know how many dollars these advance sales translate to.

 

[Chesterfield]

Of course it bloody did. The film is incredible.

 

[FunkMiller]

Juggernaut.

But people are getting tired of superhero movies, eh?

 

[Chesterfield]

That's bs and an opinion with nothing to substantiate such outright lies.

 

[WilliamK99]

https://***********/GiteshPandya/status/727542713382526978

But does BvS still hold the record for most repeat business sales?

 

[InCali]

Spider-Man (2002) and The Avengers (2012). Reasoning?

-Both May releases
-Both rated PG-13
-Both opened on Friday
-Both opened in 3000+ theater sites
-Both debuted at #1
-Both made over $500M domestic (post-inflation)

The first three correspond with CW, while the last three are very likely to correspond with it.

According to BOM, CW will open in 4000 screens. I think BvS is really going to take a hard one in the shorts this weekend.

 

[Gerontophobe]

http://deadline.com/2016/05/captain-america-civil-war-box-office-opening-summer-records-1201748297/

‘Captain America: Civil War’ To Break Out In The U.S.; Looks To Defeat ‘Ultron’s $191M+ Debut

Industry estimates have Civil War conquering No. 1 between $190M-$200M at 4,200-plus theaters. Given how non-exact tracking is in predicting these big openings, should Civil War‘s dust settle at $175M, the Mouse House will be very happy....

While Fandango reported last week that Civil War was besting the advance tickets sales of all previous Marvel movies, today the online movie ticket sales agent says that Civil War is breaking the record for all superhero movies in the company’s 16-year history, including BvS.

 

[Gerontophobe]

So I'm usually pretty skeptical about online ticket sales "records." It makes sense that each new MCU event film would pass the last one since digital ticket sales have grown so much (and weekends for tentpoles are getting more frontloaded). The same thing went for BvS, which obviously was going to do fantastic in this metric given the hype of Batman fans.

That being said, CW beating BvS in advance ticket sales impresses me. MCU films often don't have huge presale numbers but have a lot of walk-up business. It seems the trades are fairly conservative in their predictions (note Deadline hedging, pointing out how $175M is a possibility and still a big win for Disney). I now just don't see CW not breaking $200M with the reviews, WOM, and social activity.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

http://deadline.com/2016/05/captain-america-civil-war-box-office-opening-summer-records-1201748297/

Here in the U.S. and Canada, Civil War will have something stronger than the vibranium steel alloy in Captain America’s shield: 3,300 of its venues will be in 3D, along with 378 Imax, 480 premium large-format and 161 D-Box locations.

Holy carp. Sounds like it will be almost impossible to not see this on a premium-dollar screen. No wonder $200 million is in play.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

@ChinaBoxOffice:
#ChinaBoxOffice Current pre-sales for CAPTAIN AMERICA: CIVIL WAR pointing towards $45M+ opening day on Friday

 

[Joeyjojo72]

Is that good?

 

[Iceman]

China and US are going to explode CW's box office this weekend!

 

[Coolkid]

@ChinaBoxOffice:
#ChinaBoxOffice Current pre-sales for CAPTAIN AMERICA: CIVIL WAR pointing towards $45M+ opening day on Friday

What... That means, OW will be around 150M right... Man, I think it'll open as big as AoU in China... What an achievement that is... Great going... Hope it'll end up collecting 250M...!!! t:

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Is that good?

Yes.

 

[Joeyjojo72]

It sounded good.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

45 m OD would the second biggest all time OD in China only behind Furious 7.

 

[Gerontophobe]

@ChinaBoxOffice:
#ChinaBoxOffice Current pre-sales for CAPTAIN AMERICA: CIVIL WAR pointing towards $45M+ opening day on Friday

That would be a tremendous start. AoU did $33.9M (granted that was a weekday) so CW is looking strong. The growth in China's box office is crazy.

 

[third3ye]

Another superhero presales record article and interesting survey results for repeating viewers this weekend and influence from critics: http://www.thewrap.com/captain-amer...ngo-highest-pre-selling-superhero-movie-ever/

Very kind of BvS for fostering that trophy for less than 6 weeks

 

[KangConquers]

I'm trying not to get my hopes up, but I really want this to set a new Marvel record.

 

[Tilapia]

I'm trying not to get my hopes up, but I really want this to set a new Marvel record.

I told you it would 3 weeks ago...