Civil War Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Jordanstine]

@ChinaBoxOffice:
#ChinaBoxOffice Current pre-sales for CAPTAIN AMERICA: CIVIL WAR pointing towards $45M+ opening day on Friday

$45 million just on Friday?!

That's more than double BvS $21 million opening day in China!

If that number is right, and Friday is 38% of the total weekend haul like it was with BvS, then a $45 million opening day in China means...

CW could open at least $115 million if not more just over the weekend.

BvS in 6 weeks has only done $95 million in China, which means it will only take CW 3 days to pass it.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

I'm trying not to get my hopes up, but I really want this to set a new Marvel record.

Greedy!

Just kidding. I agree 100%

So many people bashed Marvel after AOU, saying that it was all downhill from here.

 

[warcam]

I know it'll get at least $26 here on Friday t:

 

[IAmAsgardian]

Now at 224,300,000 with more than 10 foreign countries to open in the next few days. Looking solid.

 

[Endeavor]

So if this opens with 200 mil or more here at home, opening weekend will see it reach between 450 to 500 mil WW.
That's just one week after it's international premier.

Yup, solid chance at reaching and surpassing 1 billion.

 

[Silver Surfer]

45 million OD in China? Good God, this might beat TA1 worldwide gross. And also give Rogue One a run for its money for the #1 crown.

 

[Gerontophobe]

So if this opens with 200 mil or more here at home, opening weekend will see it reach between 450 to 500 mil WW.
That's just one week after it's international premier.

Yup, solid chance at reaching and surpassing 1 billion.

If it crosses $200M on OW, it is all but assured $500M domestically. The real question is whether or not it can cross $600M. Internationally, $1B seems a very likely scenario, especially with China looking fantastic. Worldwide, CW may be past $700M by the end of this weekend with a shot at finishing north of $1.5B.

 

[third3ye]

So basically, with a $45m OD projection for China, CW could outgross BvS total China cume by just the first weekend That's just mindblowingly nuts.

 

[Tilapia]

It's going to be doubling up BvS WW folks.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

It's going to be doubling up BvS WW folks.

So, you're saying CW will make $1.75B WW? That's quite optimistic.

 

[hafizbat]

Back in 2012, I don't think anyone expected Cap to be the one whos movie would outdo The Avengers!

 

[JB33]

So, you're saying CW will make $1.75B WW? That's quite optimistic.

Yeah, that's not happening. It's not like that's some kind of indictment either. I think, much like Avengers: Age of Ultron, some people's expectations are just a little too high.

I maintain the stance I had a little while ago (although it may end up being on the low side, I admit): this movie will be a bigger and better Iron Man 3 and will probably land around the level of Age of Ultron.

 

[FunkMiller]

It's going to be doubling up BvS WW folks.

Think that's a bit optimistic. It'll scream past BvS in very short order though, on its way to about 1.35 bil IMO.

 

[FunkMiller]

Back in 2012, I don't think anyone expected Cap to be the one whos movie would outdo The Avengers!

Hell... If you'd have told anyone in 2012 that a Captain America movie would blow a movie starring Batman and Superman out of the water, can you imagine the reaction?

2012 was prior to the beginning of Zack Snyder's reign of terror though.

 

[third3ye]

I just took a peek at my local cinema's website and they've just added enough Thursday-Saturday screenings to basically have one available every 10-15 minutes A week or so ago there were definitely not this many screenings, and most of the original times are nearly pre-sold out. This kind of screen allocation is almost SW:TFA-like, I definitely think JW's dom OW is well within reach. Anyone else seeing this with their cinemas?

 

[Tilapia]

Yeah, that's not happening. It's not like that's some kind of indictment either. I think, much like Avengers: Age of Ultron, some people's expectations are just a little too high.

I maintain the stance I had a little while ago (although it may end up being on the low side, I admit): this movie will be a bigger and better Iron Man 3 and will probably land around the level of Age of Ultron.

I had Ultron going lower than Avengers. Low reviews, plus it was been there done that.

Civil War is a completely new dynamic. Spidey in there as well. Heroes vs heroes. Will do 550-600 domestic and 1 billion foreign at minimum. I'm going with 1.7.

 

[JB33]

I had Ultron going lower than Avengers. Low reviews, plus it was been there done that.

Civil War is a completely new dynamic. Spidey in there as well. Heroes vs heroes. Will do 550-600 domestic and 1 billion foreign at minimum. I'm going with 1.7.

Fair enough. I definitely won't discount it. The potential is certainly there.

 

[third3ye]

I mean, if we take the DOM projections of $500-600m+ from the trades, and OS of $900m-1b based on AoU benchmarking, $1.4-1.7b seems to be a reasonable range here.

 

[JB33]

I mean, if we take the DOM projections of $500-600m from the trades, and OS of $900m-1b based on AoU benchmarking, $1.5-1.7b seems to be a reasonable range here.

Yeah, I mean I'm definitely starting to see that my prediction is on the very low end. Logically, it's tracking like Age of Ultron overseas, meaning it'll do those kind of overseas numbers at a minimum, and it looks like it's tracking a little better domestically. I'm just not sold on $600M or even $550M domestic yet. I'm thinking $500M domestic is the target, with $950M being the base target for overseas gross. That gives it a floor in my mind of $1.450B.

 

[JtheDreamer]

Back in 2012, I don't think anyone expected Cap to be the one whos movie would outdo The Avengers!

Kind of a misnomer don't you think? Yes, it's titled Captain America, but it wrangled in almost all the other established players and features a co-lead in Tony Stark. Not to mention reveals Black Panther and then Marvel's former golden boy Spiderman.

The Winter Solider was a successful movie, but I don't think we see larger than another $100 - $150 million bump if it weren't for the ensemble.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

I think 1.7 billion is a bit too optimistic.

I'd say 1.4 billion is a sure thing. (No way it misses 500 m DOM or 900 m OS)

I expect it to beat The Avengers with around 1.5 billion with an outside chance at 1.6 billion if incredible legs happen globally.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

How freaking ridiculous is it that it's Tuesday and $1 billion is locked?

 

[Mysteryman]

How freaking ridiculous is it that it's Tuesday and $1 billion is locked?

Well, its the international numbers that sealed the deal.
Everything else that is coming is just going to be GRAVY!

 

[InCali]

How freaking ridiculous is it that it's Tuesday and $1 billion is locked?

A tidy profit guaranteed less than a week after the international release??? Marvel/Disney is gonna RAKE on this movie.

Does anyone know if Disney basically bankrolls the Marvel movies?

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Does anyone know if Disney basically bankrolls the Marvel movies?

I don't see why not.

The Mouse sits on alot of cash.