The Winter Soldier Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[marcvader]

They didn't know Cap was this cool even if TFA was decent. His upgrade in outfit/action and the story/overall delivery of Cap 2 have surprised many who didn't know that Cap is as cool a character as the other big 3. The dividends of the quality of this film will come with Cap 3's opening (assuming he's just as cool in Avengers 2) & I think it will be getting at least close to $1B if not over (assuming no release date clash).

Pfft, I've known this since 1979 .

 

[Iceman]

There's definitely more pressure for WB to move now. The problem for WB is that the move was a publicity stunt, the were trying to make headlines they were going head to head with Marvel, even though the filmed wasn't named. It backfired when Marvel announced that it was Cap 3.

I disagree with those saying the numbers mean that they should move the film back. Quite the contrary, if TWS had the TASM 2 date, I think that you'd be seeing even bigger numbers now. You hope that you're not going to get the 3rd movie "let down" common to a lot of films in this genre, but there was such a dramatic improvement in quality from the first film to the second, that it will be difficult to have that kind of improvement. Even poor films like Spider-man 3 have performed well in that may slot, where in April it can be disastrous and usually is.

Much of the main audience don't find out a big film like SM3 is that bad until after the 1st week by when the momentum is already there. They know for next time. I don't think Cap 3 needs to improve too much on Cap 2 to see a big box office increase as it's going to see the goodwill jump as a result of the word of mouth of 2 and hopefully a far improved AoU performance from Cap. Many other franchises seem to get worse in late sequels so if Cap can maintain this quality it will be gaining ground on them.

The May release date will always have bigger competition earlier, even if not SVB on day 1 and the lack of competition in other months I think makes up for a lot of the positives of a key summer release date. Some of the biggest films of all time have not released in summer..eg Avatar, Titanic, LOTR & Hobbits, many of the Harry Potters, Twilights, even Frozen.

If the WB move was a publicity stunt it was a bad one and I'd like to see how fast they'd move if Marvel tried a similar stunt opening an Avengers film against one of their yet to be introduced solo characters. t: The studios shouldn't be acting like fanboys and creating a studio Vs thing. Be mature and the rising tide will lift all boats. All 4 studios have contributed to the current comic book movie success story that has allowed all these ambitious projects to happen.

 

[Iceman]

Pfft, I've known this since 1979 .

Irrelevant.

[BLACKOUT]
You've always been ahead of the curve t:
[/BLACKOUT]

 

[metaphysician]

Just to reiterate, Marvel Studios isn't going to want to move the movie. Its not about the economic benefits of any given release date for this one movie. Its about establishing a precedent. If Marvel moves, they are basically saying "Hey, we can be bullied out of our release dates!" to everyone in the industry. Given that WB started the battle, they *have* to hold fast.

 

[marcvader]

Just to reiterate, Marvel Studios isn't going to want to move the movie. Its not about the economic benefits of any given release date for this one movie. Its about establishing a precedent. If Marvel moves, they are basically saying "Hey, we can be bullied out of our release dates!" to everyone in the industry. Given that WB started the battle, they *have* to hold fast.

That's the way I see it. Marvel Studios has been kicking all kinds of ass in early May and it looks like WB is trying to muscle in on it.

 

[marcvader]

What's up with weekend actuals?

 

[TeeKay]

USA! USA! USA! CAPTAIN AMERICA 2 for the 3-peat! Marvel's mighty superhero scored $26.6M (-36%), $201.5M total. https://***********/ERCboxoffice/statuses/457901527848349696

Congratulation Captain you've just been promoted!

 

[Ms. Marvel]

Just to reiterate, Marvel Studios isn't going to want to move the movie. Its not about the economic benefits of any given release date for this one movie. Its about establishing a precedent. If Marvel moves, they are basically saying "Hey, we can be bullied out of our release dates!" to everyone in the industry. Given that WB started the battle, they *have* to hold fast.

That's absolutely petty and I don't think their shareholders or Disney in general would be ok with that.

 

[Xeno]

That's absolutely petty and I don't think their shareholders or Disney in general would be ok with that.

It's not petty, it's hardball tactics and I'd bet anything that Bob Iger and the rest of Disney's brass are fully on board with it. Kevin Feige can't make that sort of stand without the backing of the execs further up the food chain. Marvel staked out that date long before WB decided to try and bully them off of it. Feige may be thinking that if he moves from that date, WB will then start chasing his films off of other desirable dates in the future. Standing firm now will prevent some headaches down the line, even if it does make fans nervous and/or angry.

 

[Ms. Marvel]

It's not petty, it's hardball tactics and I'd bet anything that Bob Iger and the rest of Disney's brass are fully on board with it. Kevin Feige can't make that sort of stand without the backing of the execs further up the food chain. Marvel staked out that date long before WB decided to try and bully them off of it. Feige may be thinking that if he moves from that date, WB will then start chasing his films off of other desirable dates in the future. Standing firm now will prevent some headaches down the line, even if it does make fans nervous and/or angry.

It should affect them more than the fans. 100s of millions of dollars will be lost. Plus in the event (not saying it will happen) that Marvel ends up losing more than DC/WB, wouldn't it just make DC/WB more confident and go after more Marvel dates?

It just doesn't seem fair that Cap 3 won't have a chance of making as much money as possible because of this. What if it ends up making less than Cap 2?

 

[Whiskey Tango]

Just the thought of listening to a bunch of nerds crow about how Marvel blinked makes me want them to hold course even if a move back to April would make better financial sense.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

WB needs BvS to be a hit more than Disney needs Cap 3 to be big.

WB only has one billion dollar franchise, The Hobbit.

Disney has The Avengers, Iron Man, Frozen, Finding Dory, POTC, Alice in Wonderland, Star Wars, etc.

Yeah Disney can afford to sacrifice a bishop to take out WB's king.

 

[KangConquers]

WB needs BvS to be a hit more than Disney needs Cap 3 to be big.

WB only has one billion dollar franchise, The Hobbit.

Disney has The Avengers, Iron Man, Frozen, Finding Dory, POTC, Alice in Wonderland, Star Wars, etc.

Yeah Disney can afford to sacrifice a bishop to take out WB's king.

I said that in the MoS2 vs Cap 3 thread.

 

[Docker2.0]

Isn't Batman a billion dollar franchise? And you are right. Marvel could afford a small dent, even though I think Cap 3 will make it's budget back. WB can not afford one because despite what some people may believe, MOS didn't meet expectations, which is why Batman is being shoved in the sequel.

 

[dalonewolf]

It should affect them more than the fans. 100s of millions of dollars will be lost. Plus in the event (not saying it will happen) that Marvel ends up losing more than DC/WB, wouldn't it just make DC/WB more confident and go after more Marvel dates?

It just doesn't seem fair that Cap 3 won't have a chance of making as much money as possible because of this. What if it ends up making less than Cap 2?

My fear with that is the o.s markets people will flock to see BVS o.s way more than captain america I'm not taking sides I'm just speaking logic
Of Cap 3 have a o.w of 80mil or less
It's o.s markets will get chewed up by bvs and whichever one is more of a demand will be the one that keeps the screens

 

[Iceman]

Just to reiterate, Marvel Studios isn't going to want to move the movie. Its not about the economic benefits of any given release date for this one movie. Its about establishing a precedent. If Marvel moves, they are basically saying "Hey, we can be bullied out of our release dates!" to everyone in the industry. Given that WB started the battle, they *have* to hold fast.

I'd prefer they let the precedent be set now but then matched release dates and chased around all the WB films during Avengers year. t:

Anyone can be bullied if you have something big enough to bully them with, doesn't matter about past precedents. If WB had a $2B hit bearing down on Cap 4 the fact that Cap 3 had withstood and even beat (if) SVB wouldn't make much difference.

 

[Tymminator]

WB needs BvS to be a hit more than Disney needs Cap 3 to be big.

WB only has one billion dollar franchise, The Hobbit.

Disney has The Avengers, Iron Man, Frozen, Finding Dory, POTC, Alice in Wonderland, Star Wars, etc.

Yeah Disney can afford to sacrifice a bishop to take out WB's king.

More or less, i agree.

My fear with that is the o.s markets people will flock to see BVS o.s way more than captain america I'm not taking sides I'm just speaking logic
Of Cap 3 have a o.w of 80mil or less
It's o.s markets will get chewed up by bvs and whichever one is more of a demand will be the one that keeps the screens

OS they tend to release the movies on different dates anyways. They more than likely will release it at least two weeks ahead of the US.

 

[dalonewolf]

Isn't Batman a billion dollar franchise? And you are right. Marvel could afford a small dent, even though I think Cap 3 will make it's budget back. WB can not afford one because despite what some people may believe, MOS didn't meet expectations, which is why Batman is being shoved in the sequel.

Whatever! I wouldn't call any movie that nearly make 700mil ww not meeting expectations
Don't get me wrong I was hoping it hit a billion but that was the fan boy In Me
If wb/dc was hoping for more than I and them was fools
It's logical to bring in batman at this point without rebooting him
it's time for something different
I don't know why people are upset because batman Will be in mos2 I'm happy to see that their moving forward and hopefully one day I'll get my Flash movie that I always dreamed of or how's about a sidekick movie ? Night wing will be so cool right about now

 

[dalonewolf]

More or less, i agree.



OS they tend to release the movies on different dates anyways. They more than likely will release it at least two weeks ahead of the US.

I know but w/b seems to be the ones who has set earlier dates for bvs in the foreign markets a few days ago
With with that being said it seems as if wb are directly pulling marvels/disneys ho"cord
I know cap3 will be awesome but I think WB know just the name of bvs nothing has a chance
We as fans should know that we're not the ones who gets movies to a billion it's the none committed fans who gets the movie to a billion
They know bvs would pull all those non committed fans their way just out of curiosity and with tasm3 and XA coming in may of 2016 it's gonna be competition something Marvel really haven't faced cap3 would do just fine away from all that competition either later or earlier
Cap 3 could be a selling point for the 4th of July 2016
That Friday would be the 2nd that will be the perfect day for Cap3 assuming it's open

 

[Iceman]

I'm looking forward to BVS too but better move this conversation to the thread actually for Cap 3 Vs BVS talk.

Cant wait for BOMojo to update Cap to 600m plus. Getting bored of the 5s t:

 

[Tymminator]

I dreamed big for this flick, but seriously, CA:TWS is actually performing beyond my real expectaions, especially overseas.

 

[Ms. Marvel]

WB needs BvS to be a hit more than Disney needs Cap 3 to be big.

WB only has one billion dollar franchise, The Hobbit.

Disney has The Avengers, Iron Man, Frozen, Finding Dory, POTC, Alice in Wonderland, Star Wars, etc.

Yeah Disney can afford to sacrifice a bishop to take out WB's king.

It's still disappointing to Cap fans.

 

[Suzanne78]

There's a Cap 3 vs. BvS thread?

*slowly backing away from that potential landmine…*

 

[Whiskey Tango]

There's a Cap 3 vs. BvS thread?

*slowly backing away from that potential landmine…*

The actual premise of the thread is a "Which one would you see first if they open on the same day" poll.

A poll which I just broke the tie on. 62-61 Cap.

I haven't looked past the first few posts, though.

I'm frigtnened.

 

[def28]

A poll which I just broke the tie on. 62-61 Cap.

Impressive. Times have definitely changed. Good for Cap.