Days of Future Past 'Days Of Future Past' BOX-OFFICE worldwide prediction - Part 1

[kedrell]

that is why I don't want it going to Disney. The social commentary is why X-men was created and taking it out is making it pointless.

The social commentary is it's biggest weakness as well, IMO. Nobody likes to be preached to, especially by Hollywood and especially in a silly funnybook movie.

You need to be real smart in slipping that junk into these kinds of movies so people don't get their internal preach-o-meters set off. That kind of smart, subtle stuff has never been this franchise's strong suit.

 

[Eddie]

X-Men can and should be as big as any other superhero franchise but when you focus on the same theme and same characters it's not hard to see why the audience can lose interest. Like I said earlier I think Apocalypse might be the start of the series winning back uninterested viewers as there is finally a villain who isn't Magneto who looks/is badass and hopefully they adapt his comic book look perfectly. You throw in some Transformers type action (not singers strong point) with characters the GA recognizes (Cyke, Gambit, Jean, Storm, Wolverine), and keep Singers dramatic character moments and I think we have a winner coming up in 2016. It would also help if they don't release it in an overcrowded summer.

Summer 2016 has Batman v. Superman, Cap 3, a mystery Marvel movie (probably a new character like Dr. Strange), a new Spidey film, Alice in Wonderland 2, Finding Dory, How to Train Your Dragon 3, Independence Day 2, Ice Age 5, and a new Planet of the Apes. All of those are virtually guaranteed a half billion minimum unless they colossally screw up. Angry Birds also has a reasonable shot. The X-Men franchise is just going to have to figure out a better way to hook the general audience. The competition is pretty much huge every summer from now until the blockbuster movie season starts to collapse (if that ever happens).

 

[kedrell]

I will paraphrase Roger Ebert: It is not what a movie is about, but how it is about it.

I disagree with Roger Ebert emphatically. Concept IS king. The most excellently made movie about a boring subject is still probably going to suck.

 

[Eddie]

The social commentary is it's biggest weakness as well, IMO. Nobody likes to be preached to, especially by Hollywood and especially in a silly funnybook movie.

You need to be real smart in slipping that junk into these kinds of movies so people don't get their internal preach-o-meters set off. That kind of smart, subtle stuff has never been this franchise's strong suit.

I'm not quite sure DoFP's social commentary quite hit home, but it can be done well. The Winter Soldier was very much a commentary on the world we live in today.

 

[kedrell]

I'm not quite sure DoFP's social commentary quite hit home, but it can be done well. The Winter Soldier was very much a commentary on the world we live in today.

I agree about TWS but it didn't come off as preachy. I'd say the MCU films(when they want to make a statement at all) do it far more deftly than Fox's X-Men franchise has ever managed to pull off. They mearly suggest certain things rather than taking a stand and whacking you over the head with it the way this franchise does.

 

[Bullseye1]

With Maleficent and Edge of Tomorrow out next week I can see this settling between 600-700 million.

 

[danagirl42]

Summer 2016 has Batman v. Superman, Cap 3, a mystery Marvel movie (probably a new character like Dr. Strange), a new Spidey film, Alice in Wonderland 2, Finding Dory, How to Train Your Dragon 3, Independence Day 2, Ice Age 5, and a new Planet of the Apes. All of those are virtually guaranteed a half billion minimum unless they colossally screw up. Angry Birds also has a reasonable shot. The X-Men franchise is just going to have to figure out a better way to hook the general audience. The competition is pretty much huge every summer from now until the blockbuster movie season starts to collapse (if that ever happens).

I can see Ant-Man moving in to that mystery marvel movie slot in 2016 since Wright just exited the movie and they were to start filming in about a week. I can't image any director (of note/value) wanting to step into that spot and start shooting. And apparently there are script problems. Something similar happened on Wolfman (the director was the same one for the first Captain America movie) and it was a disaster because instead of the director having months or years of prep time, he had three weeks. The director was very candid about how difficult it was to complete and was very unhappy about the finished product. No wonder it was a mess, but luckily did not kill Benicio del Toro's and Emily Blunt's careers.

 

[kedrell]

With Maleficent and Edge of Tomorrow out next week I can see this settling between 600-700 million.

I can still see this missing the $600M mark but I wouldn't be shocked if it goes over.

 

[Eddie]

I can see Ant-Man moving in to that mystery marvel movie slot in 2016 since Wright just exited the movie and they were to start filming in about a week. I can't image any director (of note/value) wanting to step into that spot and start shooting. And apparently there are script problems. Something similar happened on Wolfman (the director was the same one for the first Captain America movie) and it was a disaster because instead of the director having months or years of prep time, he had three weeks. The director was very candid about how difficult it was to complete and was very unhappy about the finished product. No wonder it was a mess, but luckily did not kill Benicio del Toro's and Emily Blunt's careers.

I don't see Ant-Man moving too far unless Marvel decides they'll start doing three films a year from 2016 on. That mystery 2016 film was probably already a decent way along. I think we'll see a moderately known director (or possibly Louis D'Esposito, who works for Marvel, directed a couple of One-Shots, and has said he'd possibly like to do a film) announced shortly.

 

[Bullseye1]

You could be right. My figures are on the positive side and based on big numbers of Americans seeing this numerous times. I can see this being one of the better domestic box office movies.

 

[kedrell]

I don't see Ant-Man moving too far unless Marvel decides they'll start doing three films a year from 2016 on. That mystery 2016 film was probably already a decent way along. I think we'll see a moderately known director (or possibly Louis D'Esposito, who works for Marvel, directed a couple of One-Shots, and has said he'd possibly like to do a film) announced shortly.

I sure hope not. His one-shots have seemed rather cheap to me while that new one by Drew Pierce who wrote IM3 with Shane Black is miles better in it's style. I'd rather they give him a film to direct.

 

[Eddie]

I sure hope not. His one-shots have seemed rather cheap to me while that new one by Drew Pierce who wrote IM3 with Shane Black is miles better in it's style. I'd rather they give him a film to direct.

That's also a definite possibility, and if there's any truth to the story that Marvel had some of their people redo the script it may have even been him. They attached Pearce to co-write Iron Man 3, which Shane Black was initially against.

 

[danagirl42]

I don't see Ant-Man moving too far unless Marvel decides they'll start doing three films a year from 2016 on. That mystery 2016 film was probably already a decent way along. I think we'll see a moderately known director (or possibly Louis D'Esposito, who works for Marvel, directed a couple of One-Shots, and has said he'd possibly like to do a film) announced shortly.

I looked him up and I see that D'Esposito has not directed anything on his own, which is whole other ball of wax. And if there are script and possible other problems that the studio would not want to reveal, I would hate for this to be his first time on major Hollywood movie. A rush job. I don't see established actors like Rudd or Douglas wanting that either. I would have to see a trailer, but Ant-Man was only kind of interesting to me because I wanted to see what Wright would do with it because I really liked Hot Fuzz and Shaun of the Dead.

Movie dates get moved around all the time. Better to do that than rush a bad project.

Maybe X-men needs to lower its budget. That is the big problem with a lot of these movies. Out of control budgets that Spielberg and Lucas mentioned was killing even good movies. I know for a fact that in the last year WB has started to rein in these budgets or are doing profit sharing with the major talent. That is what they did with Gravity, and I think they are doing with their new Tarzan (the later years) movie despite the director being well regarded and the one who did the last four Harry Potter movies that were critically acclaimed and made over 4 billion dollars under him and this movie having known good actors. WB is also making sure those scripts are tight before they start shooting. It cost lots of millions to do extensive reshoots. Why do you think Affleck's writing partner went over the new BvS movie? Movie could still turn out a mess.

POTC 5 is also supposed to come out in Summer 2016. Well, since the Disney green light committee just rejected the script, I don't hold much hope for that.

 

[kedrell]

When you start reigning in budgets you start getting called miserly and cheap. Just ask Kevin Fiege.

Frugality is not a well respected virtue in Hollywood or among the fanboys.

 

[Eddie]

I looked him up and I see that D'Esposito has not directed anything on his own, which is whole other ball of wax. And if there are script and possible other problems that the studio would not want to reveal, I would hate for this to be his first time on major Hollywood movie. A rush job. I don't see established actors like Rudd or Douglas wanting that either. I would have to see a trailer, but Ant-Man was only kind of interesting to me because I wanted to see what Wright would do with it because I really liked Hot Fuzz and Shaun of the Dead.

Movie dates get moved around all the time. Better to do that than rush a bad project.

Maybe X-men needs to lower its budget. That is the big problem with a lot of these movies. Out of control budgets that Spielberg and Lucas mentioned was killing even good movies. I know for a fact that in the last year WB has started to rein in these budgets or are doing profit sharing with the major talent. That is what they did with Gravity, and I think they are doing with their new Tarzan (the later years) movie despite the director being well regarded and the one who did the last four Harry Potter movies that were critically acclaimed and made over 4 billion dollars under him and this movie having known good actors. WB is also making sure those scripts are tight before they start shooting. It cost lots of millions to do extensive reshoots. Why do you think Affleck's writing partner went over the new BvS movie? Movie could still turn out a mess.

POTC 5 is also supposed to come out in Summer 2016. Well, since the Disney green light committee just rejected the script, I don't hold much hope for that.

I'm not trying to make it seem like D'Esposito is an obvious contender or anything, but he actually has more directing experience than Shane Black had when he did Iron Man 3. He's been an assistant director on quite a few films in addition to those One-Shots. Shane Black had one movie under his belt as a director (an excellent movie, but a flop). He was a big name writer, but he wasn't known as a director at all.

 

[danagirl42]

When you start reigning in budgets you start getting called miserly and cheap. Just ask Kevin Fiege.

Frugality is not a well respected virtue in Hollywood or among the fanboys.

That is how you get nonsense like a $250 million western like the Lone Ranger. That movie should not have been on over $100 million and I am being very generous. Even if it was still panned, it would have at least covered its budget. Luckily WB got smart and only was the distributor for Depp's next flop, Transcendence. I hope for their sakes they have a similar deal for Jupiter Ascending.

I know good special effects and a large cast for this movie are expensive, but something has to give. I am kind of shocked that this movie did not easily soar over $100 for Friday-Saturday. I am having Star Trek: Into the Darkness flashbacks where you have a $200+ million budget, a large marketing campaign, a good cast and director, a known brand, quality reviews and good release date, but can't seem to get over the hump.

 

[danagirl42]

I'm not trying to make it seem like D'Esposito is an obvious contender or anything, but he actually has more directing experience than Shane Black had when he did Iron Man 3. He's been an assistant director on quite a few films in addition to those One-Shots. Shane Black had one movie under his belt as a director (an excellent movie, but a flop). He was a big name writer, but he wasn't known as a director at all.

I did like Kiss, Kiss, Bang, Bang, too, but RDJ could have jumped of a trampoline for two hours and people would pay to see IM3. My concern is dropping someone in to take control over a project this big at the last minute. Especially a new property.

I also think Fox needs to learn how to market better. This is not some little $25-30 million and under flick. I mean, you don't have to have 12 trailers like TASM2, but they need to do better than some magazine covers for a magazine that is not a staple at the grocery or drug store check out. Plus, all that back and forth about Rogue was nonsense. Just make one statement that she is not in it and if she ends up with a throw away cameo then that will be that. Don't take the focus from the main point of the movie. All that back and forth made the movie sound really messy and convoluted, which it is not.

 

[DACrowe]

I ave been a fanc since I was a kid. The 1994 World Cup and Manchester United highlights on Fox Sports World had a big impact on me. My sig for the last year was about United. I had to change it after this horrible season ended.


Possible, but I wonder what the "soft reboot" status will do for the film domestically. It is going to be a monster WW no matter what, but it might take a bit of a hit domestically.

With DoFP, next weekend is going to be very interesting domestically. Next weekend should have two possible breakouts, with very different demos, both of which could effect DoFP.

The only advantage DOFP has is that Maleficent is more of a family and female-skewing film. With that said, it will still take a bite out of them. While I am looking forward to AWTDITW, I actually think it will greatly underperform. It is sandwiched in between two much more marketable R-rated comedies with Neighbors and 22 Jump Street (which is a genre with longer legs than action movies), and on top of that it's a western with some rather mixed buzz (which can be deceiving).

Add on that I think Edge of Tomorrow is only going to do "okay" numbers for a summer blockbuster (I don't think it will crack $200 million domestic), DOFP might have an easier time of it than TASM2 or Godzilla has had.

Then again, I have been wrong before. And Maleficent might really break out. I will certainly being seeing it too.

 

[DACrowe]

I disagree with Roger Ebert emphatically. Concept IS king. The most excellently made movie about a boring subject is still probably going to suck.

And just because a movie features a kid who watches his father, mother, and brother be murdered while a friend is traumatized by nightmares of death and childhood suffering, does not mean it is dark or dramatically meaningful. After all, I just described Batman Forever.

I like Iron Man 3. But just because the villain goes after the president doesn't make it weighty or profound. Otherwise the GI Joe movies--where the bad guys take over the White House and blow up London--would be hailed as a new Nolan franchise.

An extreme example, but it is why a movie about a couple of serial killers (A Clockwork Orange) is far more transcendent and even euphoric than your run of the mill dramedy about families coming together.

Execution and talent are king.

I'm not quite sure DoFP's social commentary quite hit home, but it can be done well. The Winter Soldier was very much a commentary on the world we live in today.

See I would disagree. Cap pays lip service by not-so-subtly implying that the new super-powerful Hellicarriers are a Drones and NSA a all-in-one mega fear...but it doesn't really run anywhere with that idea. Cap doesn't really judge "good people" trying to do "good." It is a sleeper cell with Hydra--enemies not that much more well defined or better developed than Cobra in the GI Joe movies--who secretly want to take over the world. It is a group of evil Germans (how much more old school propaganda can you get?) that once destroyed on the inside, all is right with the world.

I am not saying that this makes DOFP a better movie. But it doesn't give an out by saying the only humans who want to kill mutants are evil foreigners. Nor does, for another example, The Dark Knight suggest only corrupt cops torture, lie or commit conspiracy. After all Batman and Gordon do all of the above, and it hardly condones it as it leaves both emotionally crippled in the sequel.

You can prefer Cap 2 to both movies, that is fine. But just because they mention something that sounds like drones and Cap scowls does not mean it is seriously thinking about the issue. Too much box office is at stake.

 

[sf2]

The 2nd week drop has been the bane of the x-men series at the box office since the beginning. Funny enough but even though the drops for X2 and X1 look pretty acceptable by current day standards, they were actually considered pretty significant at the time when movies didn't drop as much week to week as they do now.

what to do. so many movies / block busters coming out every week.
btw, i think DOFP doing great... hopefully it will do better that TASM2, domestically and WW, which i would never think it will if you asked me 2 months earlier.

 

[Snikt]

Looking at Boxofficemojo.com, and looking at F&F 6's box office records, I think DOFP can do similar numbers domestically; and do better internationally.

 

[ken smith]

Am absolutely sure that X-MEN DOFP is not going to make less than $650 million worldwide. Infact, I would be surprised if it doesn't make more $650 million.

 

[warhorse78]

I didn't know you liked Soccer or Football as everyone but people in the states call it.

Maybe Transformers?

Definitely, it will have it's opening weekend, and it's second weekend will fall on the Forth of July weekend. It also have Mark Wahlberg and something new in the dinobots. I can see this being a runaway hit.

And who knows what kind of money GOTG could bring in. Talk about a wild card.

 

[ken smith]

Looking at Boxofficemojo.com, and looking at F&F 6's box office records, I think DOFP can do similar numbers domestically; and do better internationally.

Snikt, you read my mind.

 

[Snikt]

Snikt, you read my mind.

I just think the way the foregin markets LOVE 3D, it gives DOPF a great shot to outgross F&F 6 internationally.

And DOFP should at least outgross TLS domestically, IMHO.